SIT REP 6 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAGUA 002531

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 6 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

REF: MANAGUA 2517

Classified By: Ambassador P. Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) has
released final results for the presidential and provisional
results for the congressional elections amidst complaints
from the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN),Sandinista
Renovation Movement (MRS) and some observer groups that these
tallies were manipulated. According to the CSE, Ortega won
with a 9.7 point lead over Montealegre, followed closely by
Rizo, while Jarquin lagged behind and Pastora garnered less
than half a percent. In the National Assembly deputy race,
the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) beat out the ALN by
three more seats. (However, the ALN bancada should be
reinforced with two additional seats -- one for Eduardo
Montealegre as the second in the presidential vote and one
for Bolanos as the former president.) The National
Democratic Institute (NDI)/Etica y Transperancia (ET) numbers
closely match the CSE's results, although international
observers still cite a number of anomalies and some apparent
fraud. The Carter Center detected "crude, not fancy fraud"
during their observation that may have affected the
congressional results, and served to disenfranchise voters.
The European Union cites structural weaknesses and a lack of
transparency in the electoral process, while ALN
representatives showed emboffs numerous irregularities in the
actas (voting documentation that tallies the results). All
appeals to the vote result challenges (impugnaciones) must be
filed by Friday, November 17 and then the CSE will publish
"final" provisional results on November 19. END SUMMARY.

CSE RESULTS
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2. (SBU) The CSE released final results to the media, which
were published in the local newspapers the morning of
November 15. Results for the presidential and congressional
elections are as follows:

President/Vice President
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FSLN: 38.00% (down from the previous report's 38.07%)
ALN: 28.30% (down from 29.00%)
PLC: 27.11% (up from 26.21%)
MRS: 6.30% (down from 6.44%)
AC: 0.29% (up from 0.27%)

National Assembly (Departmental and National Deputies)
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FSLN: 38
ALN: 22
PLC: 25
MRS: 5
AC: 0


3. (C) According to CSE Chief of Staff Rodrigo Barreto, only
16 impugnaciones were not resolved at the departmental or
regional level and hence sent to the CSE for review. None
should affect the allocation of National Assembly seats.
Barreto clarified to emboff that parties must present the
original acts, signed by their fiscales, to file an appeal;
they cannot submit copies obtained from the CSE or other
sources. Barreto believes that the "real fight" is over
money, the reimbursement of campaign funds, which is based on
the results of the Presidential race. He claimed that each
vote is worth about 95 cordobas and that the regional PLC
leaders are clamoring for their piece, aggravating the PLC's
internal conflicts.


4. (C) COMMENT: The delay in the CSE's issuance of results
has lead contacts to speculate that the FSLN and PLC may have
agreed to "horse trading" on results to advantage one or the
other in a number of races. For example, the FSLN may have
"contributed" some of its votes to the PLC and subtracted
others from the ALN so the PLC could win a Masaya seat.
Barreto claims that the delay in posting results is due to
the fact that many of the faxed results were difficult to
read, some of the voting results from rural areas had to be
hand-delivered to the CSE, and some JRV presidents
purposefully delayed turning in results so that earlier
counts would favor their party. END COMMENT

NDI/ET QUICK COUNT RESULTS
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5. (C) NDI and ET released the latest results from their
vote count the afternoon of November 15. With 95% of JRVs
counted, the ET study shows the following results for
deputies in the National Assembly:

FSLN: 37
PLC: 25
ALN: 22
MRS: 6
AC: 0


6. (C) The only discrepancy between the NDI/ET results and
the CSE results is one more deputy slot for the MRS and one
less for the FSLN, either in the national list or in Managua.
ET's data is enough to call results in the following
departments: Nueva Segovia, Madriz, Esteli, Leon, Masaya,
Carazo, Rivas, Chontales, Boaco, Granada, Rio San Juan. All
of these results match with the results posted by the CSE.
Their analysis of the impugnaciones reveals that the ultimate
decision on unresolved impugnaciones would not affect the
results in any of these departments; however, ET and IPADE
were not allowed to attend the meeting on the party appeals
of impugnaciones. ET still cannot call results in Managua,
Chinandega, RAAN, RAAS, Matagalpa, Jinotega, or the national
deputy list.

CARTER CENTER CITES "CRUDE, NOT FANCY FRAUD"
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7. (C) According to the Carter Center election observation
(EOM) team leader Jaime Aparicio, Senior Director for the
Americas Shelley McConnell, and country representative David
Dye, the EOM detected "crude, but not fancy fraud" --
especially in the departments of Matagalpa, Boaco, Masaya,
and Carazo. McConnell informed Ambassador, DCM, and polcouns
on November 15 that the efforts to manipulate the vote
tallies occurred at the departmental and municipal levels,
while she has seen no evidence thus far that the CSE in
Managua was involved in these manipulations. However, when
party poll watchers (fiscales) challenged CSE tallies, the
CSE was responsive and rectified the errors, some of which
she believes could have been prevented if the fiscales had
been more vigilant. The EOM team also acknowledged that many
Nicaraguans were disenfranchised because they did not possess
the documentation required to vote; however, the Center is
uncertain how many people were actually affected given that
the CSE has not shared comprehensive data. Further, the
CSE's week-long delay in releasing the last 8% of the vote
count was "irregular" and has accorded parties only 2 days to
contest results.


8. (C) McConnell also criticized the opaqueness of the CSE's
deliberation of vote result challenges
(impugnaciones) because no observers are allowed to monitor
it. She was impressed by the ALN's vote tabulation
operation, remarking that the ALN intends to challenge three
of the Assembly seats. (NOTE: We have heard that it may
challenge five seats.) According to McConnell, the Carter
report on the elections will note the irregularities and
suggest remedies, possibly recommending that the CSE conduct
an audit of the vote tally acts. She also lamented that
there is no penalty/sanction for attempting fraud (although
in fact it appears there is such a provision in Nicaraguan
electoral law.)


9. (C) The Ambassador congratulated the EOM for its efforts
and willingness to call attention to irregularities (Aparicio
made the front-page of today's La Prensa with the headline
"Carter Center Alert" international organization notes
manipulation of the electoral results in some departments).
He encouraged Carter Center to continue working in Nicaragua,
specifically to help advance electoral reform and national
registry reform/ID issuance, and to bolster civil society
involvement in these issues. (COMMENT: The Carter Center's
public comments on tabulation irregularities in some
departments has left open the door for parties not
represented in the CSE to challenge vote tallies. However,
with only two days to contest the results, time is not on
their side. END COMMENT.)


10. (C) Responding to McConnell's query regarding what
position the USG will take vis-a-vis an Ortega government,
the Ambassador referred to Washington statements thus far,
noting that certain legislative requirements are tied to much
of our assistance and the new GON's compliance, or lack
thereof, with these conditions will be a determining factor

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as will the new government's foreign policy. In the short
term, implementing the Judicial Career Law would be an
encouraging step, suggested the Ambassador. The National
Assembly Board of Director's decision to postpone the
selection of Supreme Court justices and public prosecutors
until the next Assembly convenes is another positive signal.
McConnell also mentioned that Carter had offered to co-host
with UNDP a meeting between Ortega and Nicaraguan business
leaders to discuss common issues.

EUROPEAN UNION: LACK OF TRANSPARENCY IN THE ELECTORAL PROCESS
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11. (C) According to the European Union's deputy head of the
election observation mission, Domenico Tuccinard, the EU
mission noticed structural weaknesses and a lack of
transparency in the electoral system during their
observation. The EU fielded 147 observers country-wide.
Tuccinard told poloffs on November 15 that although there
were cases of attempted fraud (such as the MRS seat in
Carazo),the safeguards built into the system seemed to work
in most instances. Tuccinard also clarified that Rivas and
Lang told the EU team that the status of the "segunda fuerza"
(which gives the party that places second the right to name
50% of electoral officials in the system) is determined by
the presidential vote (i.e., the ALN is the "segunda
fuerza"). The EU also reported that the PLC is losing a seat
to the FSLN in the RAAN by only 20 votes. (However,
according to CSE's Barreto, the real difference is about 300
votes, not 20. Barreto also claims that the PLC fiscales
failed to impugn questionable JRVs and also failed to file an
appeal of the results at the regional level and now it is too
late.) Some members of the EU mission will remain in
Nicaragua for another two weeks, but most will leave by the
end of this week.

ALN: THE NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP
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12. (C) The ALN has noted numerous irregularities in the
actas during their revision. Kitty Monterey (in charge of
the vote count) and Carlos Garcia (the ALN's national fiscal)
told poloffs on November 15 that more than 50% of the JRVs
report different numbers of ballots counted for the different
vote categories (presidential, national, departmental,
Parlacen),even though after accounting for valid and null
votes, they should all be the same. The ALN has scrutinized
most of the actas (they are only missing 51 -- less than 0.5%
of the total) Through this review, they have noted
substantive irregularities (affecting the allocation of
seats) in Managua, Masaya, Chinandega, Boaco, Leon, and the
national list.


13. (C) The ALN also observed that many of the actas were
incorrectly filled out and/or missing bar codes and other
required information. Often, the departmental sums on the
actas contain adding "mistakes" and show different numbers
from the CSE published results (the Masaya results were off
by thousands, advantaging the PLC and disadvantaging the ALN
and FSLN). Monterey and Garcia reported that 61,441 ballots
were nullified countrywide, a total they believe is higher
than normal. They also emphasized that the CSE claimed they
would provide a digital report of the vote totals to the
parties, but had not yet complied, complicating the parties'
ability to compare results efficiently.

MRS: FRAUD DISADVANTAGED THE ALN
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14. (C) MRS spokesman Israel Lewites believes there was
fraud and a systematic intention to rob votes, pointing to
Carazo as a case that affected the MRS. Lewites acknowledged
that views are split within the MRS, but he believes the
systematic fraud was not perpetrated on a grand scale,
rather, "a few votes here and a few votes there." He also
opined that the fraud disadvantaged the ALN much more than
the MRS. (COMMENT: We will meet with MRS President Dora
Maria Tellez to follow-up on the issue. END COMMENT)

COMMENT
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15. With only a two-day window accorded parties intending to
contest the results, affected parties must chose their
"battles" judiciously. The media has picked up on the vote
tally inconsistencies reflected in disparities between

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official JRV vote summaries, departmental calculations, and
the CSE's official preliminary results - specifically citing
the Masaya case.
TRIVELLI