Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06MANAGUA2473
2006-11-08 23:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Managua
Cable title:  

SIT REP 3 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU 
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DE RUEHMU #2473/01 3122318
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FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8156
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002473 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 3 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

REF: MANAGUA 02459

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002473

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 3 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS

REF: MANAGUA 02459

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (U) Summary: With the results of 91 percent of the voting
tables (JRVs) in, Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN)
presidential candidate Daniel Ortega holds a virtually
insurmountable nine-point lead over his closest competitor,
Eduardo Montealegre of the Liberal Nicaraguan Alliance (ALN).
Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) Jose Rizo is in third
place, Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) Edmundo Jarquin
in forth place, and Alternative for Change (AC) candidate
Eden Pastora has less than 1 percent of the vote. Last
night, Montealegre officially recognized Ortega's victory
during a news conference, and Jarquin issued a statement this
morning. The PLC still maintains that they will come in
second place over Montealegre. End summary.


2. (SBU) On the evening of November 7, the CSE released its
fifth report on election results covering 91.48 percent of
the JRVs. Results for the president/vice president follow:

FSLN: 38.07% (down from the previous report's 38.54%)
ALN: 29.00% (down from 30.94%)
PLC: 26.21% (up from 22.93%)
AC: 0.27% (down from 0.29%)
MRS: 6.44% (down from 7.25%)



3. (C) COMMENT: These latest PLC numbers are raising some
eyebrows. They are several points higher than the first
Etica y Transparencia (ET) quick count, which pegged them at
24.15%, and beyond the survey's expected margin of error
(1.7%). The National Democratic Institute (NDI) examined the
results and could not explain the anomaly. END COMMENT.)


4. (SBU) Preliminary results for National Assembly deputies
selected at the national level:

FSLN: 37.59
ALN: 26.72
PLC: 26.47
MRS: 8.69
AC: 0.54

Is the PACT over?
- - - - - - - - -


5. (SBU) During a press conference on the evening of November
7, Montealegre recognized Ortega's victory. and visited
Ortega in the FSLN's headquarters. He was the first
presidential candidate to recognize Ortega's victory. During
the encounter, Montealegre promised a constructive,
intelligent, honest and democratic opposition for the next 5
years. Montealegre also predicted the end of the "pact" with
the new balance of power and the ALN seats in the National
Assembly. (COMMENT: Montealegre's acceptance of Ortega's
win and his carefully crafted remarks made him seem the
statesman in comparison to Rizo, who still has not recognized
Ortega's victory and continues to claim that the PLC will
place second. END COMMENT)


6. (SBU) Jarquin issued a statement the morning of November
8, recognizing Ortega, while pledging that the MRS is "here
to stay." He reminded Nicaraguans that 60 percent of voters
did not elect Ortega. He claimed this election signaled the
end of the pact and promised to fight to make that a reality.



7. (U) Consejo Superior de la Empresa Privada (COSEP)
president Erwin Kruger recognized Ortega's victory and said
that the private sector offers him its "vote of confidence."
Gustavo Fernandez, the head of the OAS' electoral observation
mission, officially recognized Ortega as the next Nicaraguan
president.


8. (C) PLC candidate Jose Rizo has not recognized Ortega's
victory and maintains that the PLC will still place second
over the ALN. (COMMENT: With 91% of the vote counted, this
is highly unlikely. That said, some of our contacts have
told us that the FSLN may have "pacted" with the PLC to alter
the assignment of some of the National Assembly seats to
favor the PLC to the detriment of the ALN, which might
explain the discrepancy between the ET quick count and the
latest numbers from the CSE. However, ALN campaign chief
Adolfo Arguello told us that Montealegre's recognition of
Ortega's victory would ensure that the FSLN will not allow
the PLC to manipulate the vote count in its favor. FSLN
Foreign Affairs chief Samuel Santos gave us a similar
assessment. END COMMENT)
TRIVELLI