UCA PRESIDENTIAL POLL -- A PACT PLAY ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002338

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2016
TAGS: EAID KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: UCA PRESIDENTIAL POLL -- A PACT PLAY ON THE
NUMBERS?


Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The University of Central America (UCA)
released a poll October 18 showing Sandinista National
Liberation Front (FSLN) presidential candidate Daniel Ortega
with a clear lead followed at a distant second by Liberal
Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo as part of its
"Electoral Forum," a series also supported by "El Nuevo
Diario," Channel 10, Radio Tiempo, the Chamber of Commerce
(CACONIC) and the Danish government. The poll was conducted
by UCA students using mock ballots and covered all
departments, including urban and semi-rural, but not rural,
areas. The poll was released during a live broadcast on
FSLN/PLC-leaning Channel 10. After the release of the poll,
several of the survey's "supporters" have distanced
themselves from the results and an Embassy contact claims
that the numbers were manipulated. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The poll, conducted by UCA students, included
15,330 mock ballots for president and 15,263 ballots for
national deputies. The poll covered all 15 departments plus
the 2 autonomous regions on the Atlantic Coast. Certain
municipalities were selected from each department; however,
no clear explanation was given as to the rationale behind the
choices. According to the poll, Ortega would win 37.50% of
the vote, followed at a distant second by Rizo (20.11%),
Montealegre (17.31%),Jarquin (12.90%) and Pastora (1.00%).
On the department level, according to the poll, the FSLN
would win Masaya, Managua, the RAAS, the RAAN, Esteli,
Madriz, Rio San Juan, Jinotega and Leon. The PLC was
strongest in Matagalpa, Chontales and Nueva Segovia. The ALN
would win Rivas, Granada, Chinandega, and Boaco, whereas the
MRS would win Carazo. According to the UCA team's
calculations, the 20 national-level National Assembly
deputies would be distributed in the following manner: FSLN
9, PLC 5, ALN 3, MRS 3 (department level Assembly deputies
were not included in the poll).


3. (SBU) Press coverage of the poll has focused on the
possibility of an Ortega victory in the first round and the
assertion that Rizo is the only candidate who can beat him,
especially if the rural vote is factored in (the PLC claims a
strong base in rural areas). During the live broadcast on
Channel 10, the presenters emphasized the fact that the rural
areas were not included in the poll.


4. (C) Several of the supporters of the "Electoral Forum" --
a series of 10 televised events, ranging from discussions of
key election issues to smaller opinion surveys -- have
distanced themselves from the poll. Chamber of Commerce
(CACONIC) president Jose Adan Aguerri told the press that
CACONIC was not involved in the survey and "neither endorses
or disqualifies it." The Danish Ambassador also expressed
concern to the DCM that the government of Denmark was being
linked to the poll.


5. (C) COMMENT: There are reasons to believe that the poll
results were manipulated, to advance the interests of the
FSLN-PLC pact, to show that Ortega can win without fraud on a
first round and that Rizo is the only hope to defeat him.
Indeed, television interviews on October 19 highlighted
Rizo's claim that the poll demonstrates that he is the only
candidate who can beat Ortega and therefore Montealegre
should resign, while Ortega running mate Jaime Morales is
claiming that the poll shows that the FSLN will enjoy a clean
win on the first round. The poll was fielded by UCA's
FSLN-leaning Law School (UCA Law School Dean Manuel Arauz,
was on the podium). A driving force behind the poll is
Channel 10 journalist Jaime Arellano, who supports the PLC
and has been attempting for months to find a way to convince
Nicaraguans that Rizo is the only viable option to beat
Ortega (claiming the PLC has the machinery and the ability to
"defend" the vote) and to pressure Montealegre and Jarquin to
withdraw from the race to support the PLC. Channel 10
investors include the FSLN and Angel Gonzalez, who also
partially owns FSLN channel 4 and is reportedly the one
funding PLC/Rizo's recent media blitz. Channel 10 recently
blocked the airing of UNIVISION's (Channel 10 has rights to
UNIVISION programming in Nicaragua) interview of Ortega
stepdaughter Zoilamerica Narvaez.


6. (C) The reactions of the student audience during the
broadcast were telling. They showed apparent surprise at the
results, with several students commenting that they do not
believe the numbers. Audible groans were heard in the
audience (mainly students and media) when the estimated

numbers and names of the national deputies were announced
(especially PLC deputy candidate Maria Dolores Aleman).
Another student said "Ya viene la guerra" ("here comes the
war") when the FSLN was announced as the clear winner.


7. (C) A POL FSN heard from a contact (an UCA student who
worked on the poll) the day before the poll was released,
that Montealegre was leading, slightly ahead of Ortega. The
student also told the FSN that she feared that the poll
results would be "manipulated." The student tried to find
written information to support her assertion and was unable
to, but noted that a number of other students reject the
results and some might be willing to talk to us. The student
has subsequently reported that she and a number of other
students have been told by Dean Manuel Arauz that they are
forbidden to discuss the poll.


8. (C) A "La Prensa" reporter is working on a piece on the
possible manipulation of the results. Post and many
knowledgeable contacts have noted that UCA is not a
professional polling organization and that the results are
not consistent with any of the other polls conducted by
CID-Gallup, Borges y Asociados and M&R. UCA also conducted
polls in 2000 that were inaccurate and possibly also the
result of manipulation. New poll results from CID-Gallup and
M&R are expected to be released in the next few days. END
COMMENT.
TRIVELLI