NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REGIONAL REPORTING: RAAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000212

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU
SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS REGIONAL REPORTING: RAAN

REF: 05 MANAGUA 2938

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Emboffs visited the North Atlantic
Autonomous Region (RAAN) on January 19 to discuss the
upcoming March 5 regional elections with political,
religious, and NGO officials. Both partisan and independent
authorities reported that Eduardo Montealegre is gaining
strength in the region by draining support from the PLC and
Yatama dissidents angry with their leaders, decision to ally
with their historic enemy, the FSLN. APRE leaders claimed
that Jose Antonio Alvarado cultivated considerable good will
on the Atlantic Coast during his time in government, though
APRE did not seem to be as organized as the ALN-PC. Party
and NGO leaders again warned of irregularities with the local
and regional electoral authorities. End Summary.

WHEN IN ROME: MONTEALEGRE COURTS COAST VOTERS WITH CONCERTS
AND HAND OUTS


2. (C) On January 19, Emboffs traveled to the RAAN to meet
with local leaders and discuss the March regional elections.
While visiting the ALN-PC headquarters as they were getting
ready for their campaign launch )- the house was bustling
with activity -- we saw piles of T-shirts and other
paraphenalia. We met more than a dozen ALN-PC council
candidates drawn from the ranks of PLC dissidents, the
Conservative Party and the Resistance Party. Jaime Chow,
coordinator for the ALN-PC in the RAAN and a former founder
of the local PLC organization, claimed to have 4,500 poll
watchers ready for the elections, or about 10 per voting
location, 50% of whom are trained observers. Chow said that
he had received $800,000 to run the RAAN campaign, and that
he had spent $30,000 to stage a performance of the popular
musical group "Dimension Costena," which drew 10,000 people.
When asked where his funding came from, he admitted that it
was all from the national ALN-PC campaign coffers -- "the
only local money is drug money," he asserted, and Chow did
not want to risk the reputation of the ALN-PC campaign by
raising funds in the RAAN. Chow said that Montealegre has
already toured the RAAN three times, the most of any
presidential candidate.


3. (C) Chow claimed that the ALN-PC is receiving considerable
support and interest from indigenous Miskitos unhappy with
the leadership of Yatama, the traditional indigenous party,
who are allying with the FSLN for the national elections.
When asked why the ALN-PC had not allied with Pamuc, an
indigenous party formed by Yatama dissidents, Chow said that
Pamuc leaders wanted the electoral campaign reimbursement
funds (distributed by the Supreme Electoral Council after
elections according to the percentage of the vote won by each
party) for themselves, which they could not get by joining an
alliance. He noted, however, that Pamuc had agreed to
support ALN-PC in the national elections.


4. (C) Moravian Church superintendent Stedman Bent and
Miskito human rights activist Adan Artola agreed that
Montealegre has generated considerable support on the Coast.
Bent noted the success of the "Dimension Costena" concert and
stated that, in his estimation, Montealegre and the ALN-PC
enjoy more support than Jose Antonio Alvarado and APRE and
have possibly eclipsed even the corruption-tainted PLC. On
the other hand, Bent has not noticed that Herty Lewites has
captured many Sandinista votes, noting poor turnout at
Lewites' rallies. He also recounted a rumor that Lewites was
attacked by FSLN militants in the RAAS capital of Bluefields.
Artola agreed that Montealegre has won the "sympathy" of the
people by handing out toys to children, hosting meals and
staging concerts, while Lewites has failed to make inroads.
Artola claimed that Montealegre had recruited the "best
candidates" from the pool of Liberal politicians in the RAAN.


5. (SBU) Local NGO leaders (see below) told Emboffs that they
have noticed a new voter tendency to select candidates based
on their individual track record rather than party
affiliation. IPADE director Maria Gradiz reported that
Yatama has lost popularity since the municipal elections,
while the ALN-PC has gained significant momentum over the
last three months, especially following Montealegre's visit
to Puerto Cabezas in December.

APRE CAMPAIGN IN DISARRAY


6. (C) The mood was very different at the APRE office (housed
in a municipal building). APRE leaders stated that they had
emerged as the "third force" in the RAAN after the 2004
municipal elections, but complained that they have no money
for the current campaign. When asked about poll watchers,
legal advisor Uriel Vanegas replied that the candidates
themselves would have to find their own fiscales. When we
pushed the issue, party officials admitted that many fiscales
had deserted APRE as constituent parties abandoned the
Alliance after the 2004 elections.

ELECTORAL COUNCILS FAILING TO ISSUE CEDULAS


7. (C) As usual, most of the people we spoke with professed a
lack of confidence in the local and national electoral
councils. Jaime Chow reported that 20,000 citizens in the
vicinity of Waspam (half the population) are without cedulas
(national/voter ID card). Chow described these Nicaraguans
as "children of the war" who would naturally vote
anti-Sandinista. Adan Artola claimed that the regional and
municipal electoral councils are "dominated by Sandinistas"
and that cedula applicants must convince council bureaucrats
that they are Sandinista sympathizers to obtain a cedula.
Uriel Vanegas reported that municipal electoral councils
(CEMs) have refused to admit APRE magistrates who earned CEM
seats after the 2004 municipal elections. (Note: Seats on
the CEMs are allocated to political parties based on their
percentage of the vote in the last elections. When asked if
APRE had presented evidence of discrimination to local or
international NGOs, Vanegas admitted that they had not. End
Note.)

LOCAL NGO OFFICIALS REGISTER CONCERN REGARDING VOTER ROLL
VERIFICATION


8. (SBU) Emboffs met with three NGO leaders in the RAAN to
discuss the CSE-sponsored voter roll ("padron") verification
process that took place November 24-27 and plans for
observation missions for the March 5 regional elections.
Maria Alina Gradiz, the regional coordinator for the
Institute for Development and Democracy (IPADE),reported
that IPADE had observed the padron verification in November
and observed very low turnout. In addition to voter apathy
and fatigue, Gradiz attributed the poor showing to confusion
resulting from a political party membership drive conducted
shortly before the verification and a weak civic education
campaign. According to Gradiz, the Atlantic Coast CEMs have
historically faced budgetary shortfalls, resulting in the
closure of regional offices responsible for producing cedulas
and poor training of poll watchers.


9. (SBU) Juan Herbacio White, deputy head of the local
chapter of Etica y Transparencia (ET),also reported that his
group observed the padron verification process. Herbacio
agreed with Gradiz that voter apathy and a lack of civic
education contributed to a low turnout, but he also noted
irregularities, such as poll workers leaving the verification
tables for 2-3 hour lunch breaks, a lack of information for
voters in the Miskito and Creole languages (widely used on
the Coast),and voters presenting two cedulas -- their own
and one belonging to a dead friend or relative -- and then
directed by the CEM officials to "go to the political
parties" with the second cedula. Herbacio confirmed
allegations in the national press that FSLN candidates have
expedited the cedulation process for party militants.


10. (SBU) Debby Hodgson, the regional coordinator of the
Center for Citizen and Autonomous Rights of the Atlantic
Coast (CEDHECA),claimed that several parties, including the
FSLN, PLC and Yatama, had facilitated cedulation for their
party members. Hodgson also asserted that voters were
changing circumscriptions to vote for the candidate of their
choice, specifically claiming that 300 FSLN voters changed
voting venue to cast ballots for the Sandinista ex-mayor of
Bilwi, Guillermo Espinosa. (Comment: Hodgson made no secret
of her support for the FSLN, but assured Emboffs that CEDHECA
would operate in a non-partisan manner. End Comment.)


11. (U) All three groups, IPADE, ET, and CEDHECA, will be
fielding teams of observers for the March 5 regional
elections.

COMMENT: WILL MONTEALEGRE'S POPULARITY HELP HIS PARTY?


12. (C) Both partisan and presumably neutral observers
reported growing support for Eduardo Montealegre in the RAAN.
This increasing recognition bodes well for Montealegre
regarding his chances in the November national elections, but
may not directly translate into support for ALN-PC regional
council candidates in March. If the ALN-PC fails to make a
significant showing in the regional elections, regardless of
Montealegre's personal popularity, PLC Liberals could spin
the results to argue even more vociferously that the PLC is
the only party that can defeat the FSLN -- a strategy that
may drain support for Montealegre.
TRIVELLI