GANARAM: ENCOURAGING PLC MEMBERS TO VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002097

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2026
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: GANARAM: ENCOURAGING PLC MEMBERS TO VOTE
MONTEALEGRE


1. (C) Summary: Polcouns and Emboffs met with Eugenio
Rodriguez, a Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) member
who is part of GANARAM, a movement calling on PLC members
to vote for Eduardo Montealegre. Instead of
advocating a break with the PLC, GANARAM is encouraging
PLC voters to support Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN)
candidate Eduardo Montealegre, whom GANARAM members view as a "true Liberal." Rodriguez, frustrated with the PLC leadership -- he
characterized them as a "mafia" -- sees Montealegre as the
perfect Liberal candidate: young, professional, and with a
clean reputation. Rodriguez first began supporting
Montealegre when the latter was still in the PLC and a member
of the Bolanos Cabinet. Rodriguez, and other mid-level PLC
members have grown increasingly disgusted with the party
leadership's continued adherence to the political pact
("pacto") with the Sandinista National Liberation Front
(FSLN),poor party performance in the 2004 municipal elections, and
the decision to boot Montealegre from the party. End Summary.


2. (C) On 20 September Polcouns and Emboffs met with
Eugenio Rodriguez, a longtime PLC member who is encouraging
PLC members to vote in favor of Eduardo Montealegre.
Rodriguez is President of an organization called the National Action
Group in Favor of Rizo Supporting Montealegre
(GANARAM in its Spanish initials),whose members are committed
PLC members who advocate voting for Montealegre because they
are frustrated with PLC leadership and view Jose Rizo as a weak
candidate chosen by a corrupt party leader -- Arnoldo Aleman.

Rodriguez himself is a PLC member of Matagalpa's municipal
council and a longtime PLC official, having served the party
in several capacities at the municipal level and also as a
party representative at the polls in previous elections.
(Comment: Matagalpa itself is run by a FSLN mayors, and
the FSLN also dominates the council, which includes members
from other parties, such as Rodriguez. End Comment.)


3. According to its mission statement, GANARAM lists the
following eight points as reasons for its positions:

--All polls to date show that Montealegre is the clear
preference for democratic voters.
--These polls reveal that the sum of Montealegre and Rizo
votes would guarantee the triumph of center-right
candidate.
--Montealegre is the only Liberal who can defeat Ortega.
--Montealegre is a "genuine" and accomplished Liberal.
--While Rizo is a good person, supporting him will only
serve to divide the right.
--The division of the center-right will only result in an
FSLN victory and a return to the poor conditions of
Sandinista rule.
--Liberals are obligated to do everything possible to avoid
a FSLN win.
--Montealegre should lead a united Liberal front in order
to prevent a FSLN victory.

ALN-PLC Divide Could Prove Disastrous
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4. (C) Rodriguez warned that the existence of two Liberal
candidates divides the center-right to the point that
Ortega could come out with a win. He noted that the
Sandinistas could win in November because historically there
has not been a large difference between PLC and FSLN
vote counts, and that difference is likely to shrink further
given the other candidacies voters have to choose from.
Reflecting on the 2001 elections, Rodriguez recalled that
the PLC won with about 1.3 million votes compared to 900,000
of the FSLN -- a difference of about 400,000 votes. This
time around, the ALN and the MRS are cutting into this
cushion, making it all the more likely that Ortega could win.


5. (C) On the opposite side of the coin, the
Sandinistas are running unopposed and making use
of substantial resources, to a great extent made
possible by their strong showing in the 2004 elections.
Rodriguez expressed frustration that the budget of
Sandinista-controlled Matagalpa is 153 million Cordobas,
but that the FSLN was using much of it to fill their
campaign coffers. (Comment: Rodriguez did not address

the impact of the MRS campaign on the Sandinistas, which we
think is capable of siphoning off some of the FSLN vote. MRS
officials have told us they think that they can steal at least
5 points of the FSLN vote, perhaps more. End Comment.)

Eduardo the Ideal Liberal
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6. (C) Rodriguez first began supporting Montealegre when
the latter was still in the PLC and a member of President
Enrique Bolanos' Cabinet. He said that back then he and
others saw Montealegre as the perfect Liberal candidate:
young, professional, and with a clean reputation. Near the
end of 2003, Rodriguez visited Montealegre when he
was serving as Minister of Finance and expressed
interest in backing Montealegre for the PLC's presidential
nomination. Montealegre agreed to the support, and
Rodriguez then joined the 'Vamos Con Eduardo' movement that
in effect launched Montealegre to national status.
Rodgriguez made clear he and similar-minded PLC members
launched the initiative with the hope that Montealegre would
become the PLC candidate. Rodriguez said
that even though Montealegre has formed a new political
movement, he remains a Liberal in terms of his politics and
ideology.

PLC Worth Saving
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7. (C) Despite his support for Montealegre, Rodriguez
remains committed to the PLC. Instead of resigning from
the party and following Montealegre to his Nicaraguan
Liberal Alliance (ALN),Rodriguez said that he and others
have decided to stay in the PLC in hopes of fixing the party
from within. Rodriguez still sees the party as having a
valuable infrastructure, and directs his ire solely toward
the senior leadership strata. He noted that the PLC
maintains an extremely loyal rural party base, which in fact could prove challenging in the election. He noted that many people in
rural areas, who are not well informed on the detrimental
effects of the pacto, are committed to the PLC and see the
party as the only vehicle capable of defeating the
Sandinistas -- because these people have always voted
Liberal, they will do so again.

The Pacto Lives
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8. (C) Rodriguez's disdain for PLC leadership stems
largely from the pacto's negative impact on
the party. He blames this agreement for weakening the PLC
while at the same time strengthening their longtime
enemies, the Sandinistas. His unease and dissatisfaction
reached the boiling point shortly after the 2004 municipal
elections, when it became clear that the PLC had
surrendered several municipalities not based on results at
the ballot box, but negotiated with the FSLN behind closed
doors. He was especially frustrated in 2004 because the
PLC did not reconvene following its defeat to discuss
what went wrong. Rodriguez said that many in the party had
expected greater introspection and drew upon the analogy
that any respectable sports team would do the same
following a loss. Instead, the party said that it was
better to "move on." Rodriguez claims that the pacto is
alive and well today and that the agreement has prompted
Arnoldo Aleman to purposefully run a weak presidential
campaign.


9. (C) Rodriguez also reported that he heard from a Manuel
Zuniga, a former Sandinista mayor of La Dalia, that Aleman
in the summer of 2005 agreed with Ortega that Ortega would
win November's election in return for Aleman's freedom and
a promise that the Liberals would take office in 2012. He
claimed that Jaime Morales Carazo's decision to become
Ortega's running mate is part of the deal. Rodriguez asserted
that Ortega made Aleman choose a weak presidential
candidate (i.e. Rizo) who could be easily beaten, and
required
an Aleman ally to join his campaign to appeal to non FSLN
voters and
demonstrate his moderate leanings and strengthen his own
campaign.


10. (C) Rodriguez opined that Ortega maintains the
upper hand in the pacto because his control over the
judiciary gives him control over the keys to Aleman's
freedom or imprisonment. Rodriguez speculated that if

Ortega wins, contrary to Aleman's expectations, Ortega will
probably further marginalize Aleman rather than liberate him.
To reduce the international scrutiny that is bound to become
focused on a Sandinista government, Ortega will attempt to
improve his image -- and solidify his position -- by further
prosecuting Aleman, returning him to prison, perhaps even
sending him to Panama to face trial there. This move would
enable him to burnish anti-corruption credentials.

Frustrated By PLC "Mafia"
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11. (C) Rodriguez likened the PLC to a mafia, and said
that a common sentiment among party leaders is 'either you
are with us or against us.' Following the 2004 elections
he was told to "forget about it and move on." When asked how
Aleman has managed to retain so much influence over the
party, Rodriguez replied that Aleman draws much of his
power from having been responsible for putting so many
people into their positions. These people remain loyal to
Aleman knowing that he could break them as well -- it is a
loyalty born of the perceived threat of retribution if one
steps out of line. He told Emboffs that because of his
opposition to the party leadership he has been threatened.
Rodriquez has subsequently begun adopting a greater awareness
over
his personal security, particularly while traveling. He
now prefers to take buses or taxis to his destinations and
minimizes motorcycle travel because he feels too
vulnerable.

GANARAM Stretching its Wings
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12. (C) Rodriguez reported that GANARAM is gaining momentum
and has representatives in 127 of Nicaragua's 153
municipalities. He said that while the movement is strongest
in Matagalpa department, members are also present in Esteli,
Nueva Segovia, Managua and its surroundings, and Jinotega.
The group appears to enjoy the support of disparate
former and current political officials -- including mayors,
vice mayors, municipal council members, and other party
representatives. He noted that GANARAM has contact with
the ALN, including with Montealegre himself, Edmundo Leal
(Montealegre's chief of staff) and other campaign figures.
GANARAM appears to have at least some financial resources,
as Rodriguez told Emboffs that the movement had recently
paid for a television advertisement featuring Rodriguez.
According to Rodriguez, the spot begins with him garbed in
PLC colors expressing his disgust that the party leadership
has become so far removed from party values. The bit ends
with Rodriguez decked out in pro-Montealegre garb making
the case for Liberals to vote for Montealegre, who embodies
true Liberal politics. Rodriguez then concludes with the
catchy Spanish equivalent of: "He who fools me once has no
shame; he who fools me twice shames me."


13. (C) Comment: Emboffs plan further meetings with
Rodriguez and other GANARAM adherents to explore their strength, reach, and overall plan. On the surface, the idea of committed and
recognizable PLC members campaigning in their localities in
favor of a pro-Montealegre vote may have more traction than
similar efforts by the ALN, the Embassy, or any other
organizations. End Comment.
TRIVELLI