MEETING WITH ARCHBISHOP BRENES

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002061

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2026
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: MEETING WITH ARCHBISHOP BRENES


Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes recently told
visiting WHA/CEN director and emboffs that better
organization and a clearer message appear to be giving
Daniel Ortega's Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN)
an edge in the race. He believes that Edmundo Jarquin and
Eduardo Montealegre face stiff challenges associated with
their more limited organizational capacities. Brenes noted
that while polls are unreliable, the division of the
center-right, plus a solid base of about 31-34%, give
Ortega a chance of winning in the first round. Brenes, who
has instructed Church officials to remain above the fray of
partisan politics, seeks to place the Catholic Church in a
neutral position, although he personally appears to favor
Montealegre. Complicating the Church's efforts to remain
neutral is the FSLN's advertising its connections to the
Church in departments run by FSLN mayors. Brenes noted
that he supports international and domestic election
observer missions, noting that the Church would like to
field 1,500 of its own observers if it finds the funds to
do so. End Summary.

Brenes: Superior Tactics Give Ortega an Edge
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (C) Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes discussed his views on
the elections, the strengths and weaknesses of the
campaigns, and the role of the Catholic Church in the
election process during a meeting on 12 September with
visiting WHA/CEN Director John Feeley, WHA Nicaragua Desk
Officer Gregory Schiffer, and Polcouns. Brenes kicked off
the meeting characterizing the election race as a new
experience for the country given the intense competition
among the four strongest campaigns. He noted that overall
Ortega's FSLN appears to be the most organized party thanks
in part to its discliplined supporters, considerable
political machinery, and savvy campaign strategy. Brenes
also attributed some of the FSLN success to the party's
having given their campaign a personal touch through
supporters' efforts to go door-to-door in Nicaragua's 17
departments. He added that campaign members are constantly
active and have dedicated their weekends to travelling
around the country.


3. (C) Brenes saw both Jarquin and Montealegre as
struggling. He assessed that the MRS was stronger under
Herty Lewites, noting that Jarquin lacks his predecessor's
notable charisma. When Feeley pointed out that local polls
suggest that Jarquin appears to have sustained much of the
party's support, Brenes responded that Jarquin may have
managed to retain much of the support Lewites had
accumulated, but that he will be challenged to expand his
base. While many people knew of Lewites's accomplishments
as mayor of Managua, Brenes pointed out that most people
view Jarquin as an outsider given that he has spent so much
time away from Nicaragua. (Comment: Jarquin's position in
favor of the use of therapeutic abortion as per current
Nicaraguan law and the fact that Jarquin divorced and
remarried
may partially explain Brenes' negative assessment of
him. End comment.). Brenes said, however, that Jarquin's
running mate,
Carlos Mejia Godoy, is an asset. Mejia Godoy's
iconic image has had a positive impact on the campaign in
that he provides name recognition as well as a solid
reputation. The Archbishop added that people respect the
prospective vice president not for his music but also his
simple lifestyle -- he does not appear wealthy and comes
across as down-to-earth. Brenes characterized Montealegre
as facing an uphill battle as a young, relatively
inexperienced, candidate leading a new party. On the
positive side, Brenes noted that Montealegre's image of
leading a healthy family life may resonate with some
voters.

"The Best Poll Will be On 5 November"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (C) Feeley sounded out the Archbishop's assessment of
how Ortega would fare in the elections when local polls
have consistently indicated that 60% of the population
reject him. Brenes replied that the FSLN could indeed pull
off a win given that the party maintains a solid base of
between 31-34%. Brenes commented that the polls can be
unreliable and that November 5 will provide the most
accurate assessment of whom Nicaraguans favor.

Aleman and Ortega Addicted to Power
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


5. (C) Brenes likened Ortega and Aleman to drug or alcohol
addicts, saying that they are hooked on obtaining as much
personal power as possible. Continuing with the metaphor,
Brenes said that the two caudillos react the same way as
other addicts when the subject of their dependency is taken
away -- they attempt to seize more of it. When confronted
by disenchanted party members, Ortega and Aleman strengthen
their grips and lash out at those who seek to limit their
authority. Brenes noted that despite PLC attempts to play
down the fact, Aleman continues at the helm of the PLC and the
party lacks strong leaders capable of forcing him out.

Urging Church to Remain Above the Fray
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


6. (C) Brenes wants the Church to be seen as a neutral
entity but recognizes that the competitive political
environment challenges this objective. Brenes said he had
recently told La Prensa (one of the leading dailies) that
neither bishiops nor local priests should demonstrate their
partisan leanings. To demonstrate the Church's apolitical
stance, Brenes related that he will preside over a mass
celebrating the political process and all the parties on
the Thursday before the election (29 October). The Church
will host the traditional mass celebrating the victor of
the election only after the CSE issues the final results.
Brenes said he has instructed the country's bishops to
follow suit to avoid the image of the church favoring a
particular candidate. Nevertheless, Brenes admitted that
the FSLN is likely to continue professing close ties to the
church. He noted that FSLN-controlled municipalities had
donated a great deal to local parishes, eliciting the
sympathies of many local priests. (Comment: Ortega
himself has orchestrated several well-publicized
appearances with former Archbishop Miguel Obando y Bravo in
an effort to tout his ties to the Church.)


7. (C) While Brenes attempted to avoid the perception of
favoring a particular party, he does not necessarily mean
to renounce political involvement altogether. When queried
about his stance on observers, Brenes replied that
observers -- as long as they are independent -- would be an
asset as they would help to ensure the credibility of the
process. He added that the church planned to field 1,500
of their own observers. He noted that these people will be
uncompensated volunteers, except for hats which they will
be issued for identification purposes.


8. (C) Comment: Brenes's determination to keep the Church
from supporting any one candidate will hold at the national
level, but his efforts to encourage the same of regional
Church officials are unlikely to be sufficient. Further,
Obando y Bravo continues his open support for Ortega, while
the Vatican looks the other way. Nor is Ortega limiting
his religious outreach efforts to the Catholic Church. He
recently attended a meeting of over 500 figures from the
evangelical movement during which he garnered praise for
taking an anti-abortion stance and signed an accord
promisiong his opposition to abortion -- even though his
National Assembly deputies have openly endorsed maintaining
therapeutic abortion in accordance with Nicaragua's current
criminal code.


9. (U) Atmospherics: Brenes was a gracious host. He was
softspoken and informal -- wearing his trademark blue jeans
under his official robes.
TRIVELLI