AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGES MONTEALEGRE TO FOCUS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001507

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NU
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGES MONTEALEGRE TO FOCUS ON
CAMPAIGN AND PARTY ORGANIZATION

REF: MANAGUA 1482

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador, emboffs, and local IRI Director
Gilberto Valdez met with ALN presidential candidate Eduardo
Montealegre on July 7 to express concern that ALN officials
are not sufficiently focused on the campaign and encourage
him to organize the senior leadership of the party.
Montealegre agreed, informing us that the ALN will announce
its leadership slate on July 17. He also discussed the
party's financial situation, claiming that the Nicaraguan
private sector is still not supporting him fully, despite its
promises. Montealegre sought Ambassador's help in convincing
PLC presidential candidate Jose Rizo to resign his position
and join the ALN to unite the Liberal bloc. Montealegre
believes that the new MRS formula may attract additional core
Sandinista votes, even though MRS presidential candidate
Edmundo Jarquin is not as charismatic as Herty Lewites
because the new VP candidate Carlos Mejia Godoy is very
popular. End Summary.

MONTEALEGRE WILL WORK ON ALN UNITY
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2. (C) ALN presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre
admitted to Ambassador on July 7 that the ALN is not as
unified as it should be. He explained that juggling the
aspirations of multiple parties has been very difficult, and
many ALN activists are still disappointed with the final
selection of Assembly deputy candidates. Local IRI Director
Gilberto Valdez pointed out that the ALN had a greater
percentage of candidates selected via primaries than any
other party (the FSLN was the only other party to use
primaries). However, many ALN politicos still believe they
can secure a position on the candidates' list and are hence
not focused on the campaign, Valdez continued.


3. (C) The ALN will announce the heads of the party campaign
structure on July 17, Montealegre stated. The deputy
candidates will be tapped to help Montealegre on the campaign
trail, and party members will be given "jobs" to keep them
focused on the campaign instead of jockeying for position
within the party. He recounted that FSLN Assembly deputy
Edwin Castro recently congratulated ALN campaign organizer
Eliseo Nunez on the ALN's progress in developing its party
structure. Montealegre also announced the ALN's "9 for
Eduardo" initiative, in which each Eduardo supporter to
recruit nine others to support his candidacy and ensure they
have transport to the polls on Election Day (the "9" will
also reinforce the need to mark Montealegre's box 9 on the
ballot.)


4. (C) While Montealegre acknowledged that his numbers had
dropped in the latest Borge poll, Valdez clarified that the
questions in the Channel 8-sponsored Borge poll had been
crafted in such a way to favor the two traditional party
candidates -- Rizo and Ortega. Montealegre observed that
popular support for the ALN as a party actually increased in
the poll, from 6% to 18%, while support for the PLC declined
from 32% to 24%. Valdez added that a new M&R poll, to be
released on July 10, will present results in line with
earlier polls showing Montealegre in close second behind
Ortega and Rizo trailing. (Note: In the Borge poll, Ortega
leads with 29.2%, followed by Montealegre with 22.4%. Rizo
is a close third with 20.0%, and Lewites fourth with 14.9%.
In earlier polls, Rizo trailed with 12% to 15% support. End
Note.)

NICARAGUAN PRIVATE SECTOR STILL HOLDING BACK
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5. (C) Montealegre confided that he received $1.2 million in
campaign contributions from Salvadoran businessmen during his
July 6 trip to El Salvador, thanks to President Saca, who
also promised to send advisors from ARENA to help the ALN
with logistics and organization. Nicaraguan financiers,
however, are still "playing games" and vacillating between
the two Liberal camps. The ALN has only spent $850,000 so
far on the national campaign, not including the Atlantic
Coast regional elections. Montealegre claimed that PLC
candidate Jose Rizo currently has $1.7 million at his
disposal, but he does not know the source of the PLC funds.


LOW HANGING FRUIT
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6. (C) Poloff mentioned that several PLC mayors and other
local officials are unhappy with PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman's
management of the party and may be willing to support the
ALN. Valdez agreed that the ALN must design a strategy to
pursue and capture disaffected PLC leaders and voters.
Montealegre responded that ALN National Assembly Jamileth
Bonilla is working on such a project, but he will consider
formalizing her role. Montealegre confided that the PLC
leadership in Granada will publicly defect to the ALN on July
11 -- the date of the Liberal Revolution of Jose Santos
Zelaya.

MONTEALEGRE: PLEASE CONVINCE RIZO TO LEAVE PLC
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7. (C) Montealegre asked the Ambassador to help convince Jose
Rizo to renounce his candidacy and leave the PLC. The goal
is to create one Liberal party after the elections, so if the
PLC loses its legal identity, Liberal continuity is still
assured, he explained. Montealegre stated that he could
assure Rizo a deputy position and support him to run for
National Assembly president. He does not have a plan to
accommodate PLC vice presidential candidate Jose Antonio
Alvarado, but noted that "not even Rizo trusts him."
(Comment: We believe it is still too early to approach Rizo
on this issue.)

MEJIA GODOY MAY ATTRACT MORE SANDINISTA VOTES TO MRS
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8. (C) Montealegre was confident that the new MRS
presidential (Edmundo Jarquin) and vice presidential (Carlos
Mejia Godoy) candidates named after the unexpected death of
Herty Lewites (reftel) will draw additional Sandinista core
voters away from the FSLN. He believes that Mejia Godoy will
attract younger left-wing voters and the "nostalgic vote" of
older Sandinistas disappointed with Ortega's betrayal of
revolutionary ideals. Montealegre agreed with Ambassador,
however, that Jarquin is too conservative to appeal to "the
masses" the way Lewites did.

COMMENT
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9. (C) Montealegre was open to our comments and suggestions,
agreeing that the ALN needs more unity and coordination to
compete effectively in the elections. Emboffs will continue
to work with ALN officials and others to identify PLC leaders
unhappy with Aleman's meddling in the party. Convincing PLC
members to support Montealegre is key to convincing Rizo that
his candidacy is not viable and creating momentum for the ALN
to present itself as the principal Liberal entity in
Nicaragua.
TRIVELLI