SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF STATE DEPARTMENT

S E C R E T MANAGUA 001383

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA ASSISTANT SECRETARY THOMAS SHANNON AND
WHA SENIOR ADVISOR OF PUBLIC DIPLOMACY MARIA TAMBURRI,
WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM MARR MOPS KDEM ECON EFIN
NU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF STATE DEPARTMENT
ASSISTANT SECRETARY THOMAS SHANNON


Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (S) Summary/Introduction: Your visit to Nicaragua allows
you to reiterate U.S. opposition to the Sandinista
(FSLN)-Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) pact and assure the
Nicaraguan people that we share their desire for free, fair,
credible, and inclusive elections. Your presence will also
confirm to Nicaraguans that the USG speaks with one voice vis
a vis Nicaragua and will dispel the PLC's disinformation
campaign alleging the removal of the Ambassador and its bogus
linkage of the Deputy Secretary's resignation to a shift in
U.S. policy. Meeting with both Liberal dissident Eduardo
Montealegre and FSLN dissident Herty Lewites will demonstrate
that we support principles and not specific presidential
candidates. Preparations for Nicaragua's November 5
elections are generally on track, but critical challenges
remain, including providing national/voter IDs to tens of
thousands of Nicaraguans. Financial backing for Liberal
dissident Eduardo Montealegre's campaign, including from
local financiers and the Taiwanese, appears to be coming on
board, if slowly. Montealegre's most immediate challenge is
to unite the disparate egos and parties supporting him around
a common purpose. End Summary/Introduction.


2. (C) President Bolanos still relies on FSLN and PLC
support, or at least non-interference, in the National
Assembly to effectively govern. The relapse of his son
Javier, who suffers from leukemia, has understandably
dampened his spirits. If his son's condition worsens,
President Bolanos may be out of country during your visit.
Bolanos considers CAFTA and the Millennium Challenge Compact
the pillars of his lasting legacy for Nicaragua, along with
achieving debt relief and his goal to turn over a country
with a stable macro-economy and an ongoing IMF program to his
successor. He is also justifiably proud of having taken a
firm stand against the caudillos of corruption, although he
recognizes that he has paid a heavy political price.


3. (C) President Bolanos has not succeeded in his lobbying
of the Assembly to vote for MANPADS destruction. The
military and the Defense Ministry (MOD) allege the problem
lies with an uncooperative legislature, while lawmakers point
fingers at the military and MOD for tying further destruction
to military hardware in return. The PLC links its votes for
MANPADS destruction on amnesty for Aleman and the FSLN ties
its support to a meeting between the Ambassador and Daniel
Ortega -- an unwise move during this pivotal election year.


4. (S) Your meeting with President Bolanos will allow you to
reiterate our support for the Nicaraguan government (GON);
congratulate him for supporting CAFTA-DR and the MCC compact;
press him to act on his commitment to destroy all remaining
in the Nicaraguan Army's inventory; and urge his government
to resolve more outstanding property confiscations of U.S.
citizens before the end of the 2005-2006 waiver period. You
may also encourage President Bolanos to continue engaging his
regional counterparts, the Taiwanese, and the region's
private sector to back Montealegre's campaign, while avoiding
public statements that suggest Montealegre is a cookie-cutter
replica of his persona. President Bolanos and Foreign
Minister Norman Caldera may also raise concerns over U.S.
Immigration Reform Bill and how it might affect the thousands
of Nicaraguans residing in the United States.


5. (C) Additional points to raise in your separate meeting
with Foreign Minister Caldera could include the following:

--Appreciate his courage in publicly supporting U.S. efforts
to ensure Nicaragua holds clean, fair, and credible elections
and his denouncement of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez'
direct interference in Nicaragua's presidential campaign.

--Recognize GON support for its support of the adoption of
the Third Additional Protocol and membership in the Red Cross
and Red Crescent Movement (Movement) for the Israeli national
society, the Magen David Adom (MDA). Nicaragua voted in favor
of the initiative during the June 20-21 International
Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent.

--Urge the GON to rethink its support for Japan's whaling
policies (as a recipient of Japanese aid, the GON is
reluctant to cross the Japanese on this issue, but some local
environmental groups are starting to challenge the GON's

position).

--Motivate the GON to revive its diplomatic relations with
Iraq. According to the MFA, the GON never severed its
diplomatic ties with Iraq, but its relations are not active.
Caldera has expressed interest in meeting with the new Iraqi
Ambassador to the United Nations, Hamid al-Biyati, on his
next trip to New York, possibly in July.

--Encourage the GON to send a military staff contingent to
Iraq, Afghanistan, or Kuwait. While the GON is receptive to
deploying de-mining specialists or light infantry to Iraq or
Afghanistan, deployment would require a vote of approval from
a hostile National Assembly. The Defense Minister has
suggested, however, that sending de-mining specialists as
part of the UN mission in Afghanistan or staff officers to
Kuwait or Afghanistan may be more feasible. National
Assembly approval would not be required.

U.S./CEPPS AND CIVIL SOCIETY ELECTION SUPPORT REVS UP
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6. (C) Our support for free, fair, inclusive and transparent
elections is crucial, especially given the FSLN's and PLC's
control over the National Assembly, the courts and the
Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). Timely international
technical assistance and monitoring will help stem the
efforts of the FSLN and the PLC to fraudulently manipulate
election results. During the recent voter list (padron)
verification process, the CSE discovered that thousands of
Nicaraguans had migrated from the Atlantic Coast North and
South Autonomous Zones (RAAN and RAAS) back to the adjacent
departments of Matagalpa and Jinotega. CSE President Roberto
Rivas, ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre, and others have
called for an investigation into this apparent irregularity
(NOTE: Montealegre suspects that the PLC may have moved
supporters from Matagalpa and Jinotega to the Atlantic coast
to stack the March 5 Atlantic Coast elections in its favor
and these maneuvers would explain why the PLC fared better
than expected in the RAAN.
END NOTE.)


7. (SBU) CEPPS partners IFES, IRI, and NDI and their local
affiliates are now fully engaged in helping Nicaraguans
prepare for their November 5 national elections. Election
program activities are exerting a significant positive impact
on the electoral environment, encouraging greater
transparency and accountability from the CSE and increasing
voter participation and awareness. As the political parties
begin campaigning in earnest, we expect the civil society and
technical assistance components of the program will rev up to
ensure a more substantive debate and greater responsiveness
to constituent interests. Your dinner with CEPPS partners
and local affiliates will allow you to convey our
appreciation for their fine efforts and query participants
about specific concerns and areas of weakness that merit
attention. A summary of CEPPS efforts:

-- Padron Audit: NDI, working with the local chapter of
Ethics and Transparency (ET),finalized a civil society audit
of the voter roll (padron) and presented their findings to
political parties, civil society and the international
community June 7-9. According to the audit, roughly 25% of
the voting population is incorrectly listed on the padron,
which will impede their ability to vote. Further, 10% of the
voting population (individuals currently possessing a
national/voter ID card, called "cedula") is not included on
the padron. According to ET, both of these problems can be
remedied through the CSE verification process. NDI
redirected program monies from other projects to fund
national observation of the verification process and a public
awareness campaign. CSE President Roberto Rivas claimed that
ET had not been "authorized" to perform a civil society audit
of the padron, but the CSE has not refuted any of the
findings of the study. NDI has offered to provide training
to all the political parties on
how to use the findings of the audit to ensure their
constituents are registered to vote.

--Padron Verification: With over 21 percent of eligible
Nicaraguan voters estimated to have verified their status and
location on the official voters list (padron),the CSE
proclaimed the June 10-11 and 17-18 verification process a

success. This assessment was supported by observers from the
Carter Center and the Latin American Council of Electoral
Experts (CEELA). IFES has worked closely with the CSE on
padron verification, providing technical assistance and
training for regional and municipal CSE officials. IFES
invested 100% of their public awareness funds on the
verification process given the potential impact on the
upcoming elections and the CSE's unwillingness to invest
adequate funding in the verification campaign. The OAS
Election Observation Mission (EOM) fielded 29 observers.

--Voter Education and Awareness: IFES has doubled the
capacity of the CSE voter hotline to meet the rising number
of citizen inquiries regarding the electoral process. IFES
has helped the CSE update its website, making it more
interactive and responsive to voter inquiries. IRI has
initiated grassroots voter awareness projects with four
Nicaraguan civil society organizations. Youth Vanguard is
distributing flyers promoting voting and cedulas at
university campuses. Movement for Nicaragua (MpN) has radio
and television adds encouraging citizens to obtain their
cedulas prior to the August 6 deadline. MpN and the
Institute for Development and Democracy (IPADE) are
canvassing secondary schools encouraging 16-18 year olds to
participate in the electoral process. MpN's youth outreach
program reveals that 70-80% of the students visited have no
cedula, while the majority of these youth plan to participate
in the upcoming elections. MpN is working with the Ministry
of Education to provide assistance and transportation to
students interested in applying for cedulas. JUDENIC is
performing focus groups with youth to finalize the slogan and
message of the Rock the Vote campaign, to begin in late June.


--Cedula Issuance and Retrieval: The CSE is focusing its
efforts on encouraging eligible voters to apply for their
cedulas and register before the August 6 deadline. To serve
citizens who have requested but never received voter ID
cards, IFES conducted an inventory of all outstanding voter
IDs (roughly 200,000 nationwide). This information has been
included on the CSE hotline and website and distributed to
all CSE regional and municipal centers, as well as churches,
civic centers, post offices and schools. With IFES support,
the CSE is opening seven kiosks in high-traffic markets in
the Managua metropolitan area for citizens to solicit voter
IDs. The CSE claims these kiosks will provide expedited
voter ID services in only 15 days. Public pressure on the
CSE appears is working, as the price to obtain a cedula has
dropped to 20% of the previous cost.

--Citizen Attention Centers: With NDI support, MpN has
extended operations in Managua. It has also opened seven new
Citizen Attention Centers (CAC) that help citizens to obtain
birth certificates and soliciting voter ID cards (Rio Blanco,
Matagalpa, Masaya, Esteli, Chinandega, Leon and Carazo).
With additional funding, MpN will expand CAC coverage
nationwide. MpN held a "Cedulathon" in Managua on June 17
with local bands and other entertainment to encourage youth
to get their voter IDs and participate in the electoral
process. Cedulathon proceeds will be used to support the
CACs. You will visit one of the MpN Citizen Attention
Centers during your stay.

--Political Party Poll Watching: IRI has finalized the
training schedule for Herty Lewites' MRS and Eduardo
Montealegre's ALN political party poll watchers, which will
begin in late June and continue through August. Based on the
lists submitted by both parties, IRI will train 12,000 poll
watchers for MRS and 18,000 for the ALN. With additional
funding, poll watcher training will be extended to Eden
Pastora's Alternativa por el Cambio (AC) and poll watcher
manuals will be distributed to all five parties. (NOTE: PLC
and FSLN poll watchers receive training through the CSE, an
institution totally controlled by these two traditional
parties. END NOTE.)

OAS TAKES GLASS HALF FULL APPROACH, PRESENCE ON GROUND SPOTTY
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8. (C) OAS Mission: The OAS grant should be finalized soon.
In the meantime, a pre-award letter allows it to spend U.S.
funds. Twenty OAS observers led by OAS Election Mission head
Gustavo Fernandez and supported by political adviser Raul


Alconada arrived in country on June 5 for the padron
verification process. Over the June 10-12 weekend, a team of
three ex-foreign Ministers from the region joined the OAS
team to add a political dimension to the process, and they
met with leaders of the political parties competing in the
November national election. The OAS believes that
cooperation with the CSE is acceptable and the chances of the
inhibition of any of the presidential candidates are low.


9. (C) The OAS is now addressing longer range issues: reform
of the electoral law and regulations, what can be done to
avoid entry into force of the pact-inspired constitutional
reform to weaken presidential authority this January, and the
possibility of real constitutional changes. During your
visit to Managua, OAS Election Mission technical director
Patricio Gajardo will be in country. However, Fernandez and
Alconada's political team will not be present. The GON has
expressed concern that the OAS team does not maintain a
robust political presence here, a concern we share. Your
meeting with Gajardo at the CEPPS dinner will provide you an
opportunity to raise this concern.

RALLYING DONOR SUPPORT FOR COMMON ELECTION STATEMENT
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10. (C) The Ambassador participates in regularly scheduled
meetings of ambassadors representing donor countries. The
DCM, USAID, and POL participate in working level meetings
focusing on election support. Embassy has been engaging
members on the need to issue a joint donor statement in
August to reiterate our common interest in, and commitment
to, helping Nicaraguans hold a clean, fair, credible, and
inclusive electoral process. Your encouragement could help
consolidate this initiative.

REMINDING VOTERS OF THE ORTEGA ERA
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11. (C) The Permanent Human Rights Commission's (CPDH)
investigation of Sandinista era abuses against Nicaragua's
Miskito population, which we have supported, continues to
draw attention to the failings of the Sandinista regime. On
June 7, the CPDH formally denounced the alleged Sandinista
genocide/atrocities committed against the Miskitos during the
1980s. The next day, CPDH held a press conference in Managua
and filed evidence against Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega
and others -- including written and video taped materials
gathered from over one hundred witnesses and survivors --
before the attorney general's and public prosecutor's
offices. Coverage of the cases has extended beyond Nicaragua
including the United States.


12. (C) Responding to Zoilamerica's request for assistance
in continuing her case before the Inter-American Human Rights
Commission (IAHRC) against stepfather Daniel Ortega for years
of sexual abuse, Embassy provided her a small grant to pursue
her case. She is currently in the United States, where she
will meet with IAHRC and Department officials, as well as
foundations that may be able to help her with pro bono legal
assistance or support her foundation Sobrevivientes
(Survivors). She will also meet with Spanish-speaking media
in Miami and arrange an interview with Univision.

ARCHBISHOP REFRAINS FROM POLITICS, CARDINAL PROMOTES ORTEGA
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13. (C) Unlike his predecessor Cardinal Miguel Obando y
Bravo -- who is now openly campaigning for Daniel Ortega
(even though the Nuncio told us the Cardinal privately favors
Arnoldo Aleman) -- Managua Archbishop Brenes has largely
refrained from using his office to engage in politicking.
Instead, Brenes has urged dialogue and national consensus,
calling for candidates to be sincere in their campaign
promises and to refrain from smearing tactics. Your
encouraging Brenes to continue this constructive, apolitical
role would be helpful. You may clarify with him that our
concern over a possible Ortega win in the elections stems
from Ortega's anti-democratic rhetoric; his long record of
complicity in human rights abuses - including against the
Miskito Indians; and, his probable sexual abuse of his own
stepdaughter. (Note: On June 22, Brenes held a special mass
for all of the presidential candidates; possibly he set the
date knowing that Daniel Ortega was abroad. End Note.)


MONTEALEGRE SHIFTS INTO THIRD GEAR
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14. (C) Arnoldo Aleman will not cede his leadership of the
PLC and Daniel Ortega will not let him because he relies on
Aleman to keep the right divided. Thus, a five-way race
remains the likely scenario, although PLC candidate Jose Rizo
may decide to withdraw if his numbers do not climb by
September. Montealegre's most immediate challenge is to
unite the disparate egos and parties supporting him around a
common purpose. The results of the next poll to be released
in July will provide a clearer idea of voter trends and may
influence the direction of financial support. If Montealegre
holds strong, and support for Rizo does not climb,
Montealegre is likely to receive all the financial backing he
needs. However, if Rizo's number rise, Pellas and other
financiers may leave Montealegre hanging another month before
they decide where to place the bulk of their support.


15. (C) Much of Nicaraguan and regional capital appears
poised to back Montealegre's campaign, although some, like
Nicaraguan industrialist Carlos Pellas, are likely to hedge
their bets by giving smaller quantities of cash to his
competitors, including Daniel Ortega. Carlos Pellas has
assured us that he will back Montealegre. Montealegre's
running mate Fabricio Cajina confirmed to us on June 21 that
Chamorro-Pellas family patriarch Carlos Chamorro told him
that Montealegre will obtain the funds he requires. We have
also confirmed that Taiwanese interests will support
Montealegre's campaign and that they will not/not help PLC
candidate Jose Rizo. Impressing upon Montealegre the
immediacy of uniting his alliance around a common purpose and
platform will be helpful. He may seek your reassurance that
we will not cave to pressures from the PLC, which constantly
waves the Ortega and Chavez flags to scare us into supporting
PLC candidate Rizo.

ENGAGING HERTY
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16. (C) Lewites has been effusive in his desire to maintain
cordial, constructive, and cooperative relations with the
United States. Lewites has also been supportive of CAFTA,
with the observation that small farmers and small business
must in some way be assisted. He favors MANPADS destruction,
asserting "they are of no good use to anybody." Some Embassy
contacts do not trust Lewites' intentions, noting that
members of Lewite's immediate circle are "orthodox"
Sandinistas. Others insist Lewites could eventually rejoin
the Ortega fold; still others claim the bad blood between
them is such that they will never form an alliance. We
believe that for now, encouraging the Sandinista division and
focusing USG criticism on the "Danielistas" specifically,
instead of "Sandinistas" as a group, is appropriate. Keeping
Lewites in the race will also subtract votes from Ortega and
could spell the difference between Ortega's winning on the
first round or losing on the second.


17. (C) Your meeting with Lewites will allow you to
reinforce our position that we have no election favorite and
that we support democratic candidates who desire responsible
government and constructive relations with the United States.
You may wish to encourage him to visit Washington (he has
told us he might visit closer to the November election). His
selection of Dr. Edmundo Jarquin (IADB consultant, lawyer and
economist, former university professor, Ambassador to Spain
and Mexico during the Sandinista regime, and a National
Assembly Deputy in the early 1990s) as his running mate
suggests that if elected, he would practice sound
macro-economic policies.

MEET AND GREET
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18. (U) Your meeting with the Embassy community will show
high-level appreciation for their efforts to ensure Nicaragua
holds free, fair, and transparent elections in 2006. The
Mission has 80 American employees, 11 Family Member
employees, 310 local engaged staff (LES),and 280 local
guards. In addition to State and USAID, DAO, Mil Group, DEA,
OBO, RLA, USDA/FAS/APHIS, Peace Corps, and Millennium
Challenge Account offices are present. Construction began on

the New Embassy Compound in February 2005. The new embassy
is situated on 13 acres; the former Ambassador ("Casa
Grande") and DCM residences (currently Marine offices) are on
the site. The expected date of completion of the Embassy is
around April 2006. The new USAID complex will be co-located
on the land and completed around May 2007.
TRIVELLI