VERIFICATION SUCCESSFUL, BUT CSE NOTES SOME

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001359

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU
SUBJECT: VERIFICATION SUCCESSFUL, BUT CSE NOTES SOME
IRREGULARITIES

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (U) Summary: With over 45 percent of eligible Nicaraguan
voters estimated to have verified their status and location
on the official voters list (padron),the Supreme Electoral
Council (CSE) proclaimed the two-weekend verification process
a success. This assessment was supported by observers from
the Carter Center and the Latin American Council of Electoral
Experts (CEELA). CSE officials noted, however, that a
suspiciously large number of voters in Jinotega, Matagalpa,
and Rio San Juan registered a change of address from the
North and South Atlantic Autonomous Regions (RAAN and RAAS),
where regional elections took place in March. The CSE will
now focus on encouraging eligible voters to apply for their
voter ID card (cedula) and register before the August 6
deadline. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Despite a slow start (only about five percent of
voters verified the first weekend),the CSE estimates that
ultimately an estimated 46 percent of citizens (1.5 million
out of 3.4 million) turned out to verify their status and
voting location in the padron on June 10, 11, 17 and 18. The
turnout was lower than the CSE's goal of 1.8 million, but CSE
president Roberto Rivas nevertheless pronounced the process a
success. Senior CSE official Rodrigo Barreto told poloff on
June 20 that CSE officials are very pleased with the
verification, which registered a higher turnout than previous
verification efforts, and the training they received from
IFES. Barreto commented, however, that CSE officials did not
receive full cooperation from the Ministry of Education in
opening several voting centers on time, which impeded the
process of verification in some areas. The CSE will now
focus on encouraging eligible voters to apply for their voter
ID card (cedula) and register before the August 6 deadline.
After August 6, the CSE will compile the final version of the
padron for the November 5 elections, Barreto reported.

SUSPICIOUS POPULATION SHIFTS NOTED IN CERTAIN AREAS
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3. (C) After the verification, Rivas alerted the press that
10,000 people in the department of Matagalpa and 8,300 in
Jinotega (representing over two percent of all registered
voters in those departments) had registered a change of
address from the RAAN and the RAAS, where regional elections
had taken place only four months before. Barreto privately
informed poloff that a large number of voters also registered
a change of residence in Rio San Juan. He opined that this
movement of voters could explain the unexpected success of
the PLC in the regional elections. (Comment: A number of our
non-PLC contacts alleged that the PLC had temporarily
transferred a number of supporters to the RAAN and RAAS to
turn the outcome of the Atlantic Coast elections in the PLC's
favor. End Comment.)

MOST POLITICIANS SATISFIED, EXCEPT LEWITES
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4. (SBU) PLC and FSLN officials expressed satisfaction with
the verification on July 19. PLC vice president Wilfredo
Navarro commented that he had informally checked the voting
location for his wife and children, which could indicate that
the formal verification number does not indicate the true
percentage of voters who checked on their status. ALN
Presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre was not
particularly concerned about the turnout and stated that
"many people already know where they are supposed to vote."
Local Carter Center representative David Dye reported that a
CSE contact told him that the ALN covered 98 percent of the
voting centers with their "fiscales" to monitor the
verification process, with the FSLN covering 78 percent and
the PLC only 73 percent.


5. (U) MRS presidential candidate Herty Lewites warned that
the creation of "virtual" voting tables (JRVs) for the
verification process could confuse voters and contribute to
electoral fraud by discouraging voters sympathetic to
minority parties. Lewites advised the CSE to locate all new
JRVs in the same voting centers to minimize confusion.
(Note: When any particular JRV is projected to exceed its
maximum number of 400 registered voters, the CSE creates a
new JRV to accommodate the overflow. End Note.) The
following day, Rivas responded by implying that Lewites is
ignorant of the electoral process and the public has nothing
to worry about.

CARTER CENTER/CEELA: VERIFICATION A QUALIFIED SUCCESS
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6. (SBU) A team from the Carter Center observed the final
weekend of the CSE's effort to verify the padron. Observers
were present in 15 of Nicaragua's 17 departments and regions.
The Carter Center is planning to release a statement that
praises CSE officials for carrying out the verification in a
professional manner. The CSE received adequate material in
good condition to document the verification, although some
stations ran out of "change of address" forms (especially in
Matagalpa). The Carter Center statement notes that at least
two, and usually three, fiscales were present from the
different political parties in the different voting centers.


7. (SBU) The Carter Center declaration also remarks on the
apparent low turnout of citizens to verify, but offers the
following explanations: citizens verified informally for
friends and relatives; many did not bother to verify because
they are confident that they are properly registered; CSE
publicity efforts in some areas were insufficient. The
Carter Center urges all Nicaraguans that have not yet
verified to do so at CSE branches before the August 6
deadline.


8. (U) Representatives of CEELA also responded favorably to
the verification process. Eugenio Chicas, a magistrate of El
Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal, commented favorably on
the Nicaraguan verification process in comparison with others
in the region and noted that the CSE seemed better prepared
than when it conducted the Atlantic Coast verification last
February. CEELA president Nicanor Moscoso offered the
following recommendations to the CSE: increase public
outreach efforts on verification and cedulization and remind
the public of the August 6 deadline to verify/solicit a
cedula; publish the electoral regulations; and encourage
political parties to seek training for their fiscales.

COMMENT: KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PADRON
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9. (SBU) Post is supporting efforts to encourage voters to
verify and apply for a cedula if necessary. After August 6,
the CSE will work to complete the final padron (to be
published on October 5) for use on November 5. Post will
monitor this process to determine if new JRVs are located far
from voters' customary voting centers.
TRIVELLI