UPBEAT PRESIDENT BOLANOS HOPES SUCCESSOR BUILDS ON

S E C R E T MANAGUA 001209

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN TPIERCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MARR MOPS NU
SUBJECT: UPBEAT PRESIDENT BOLANOS HOPES SUCCESSOR BUILDS ON
HIS LEGACY

REF: MANAGUA 1180

Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Bolanos recently confided to
Ambassador his desire for his successor, ideally Liberal
dissident Eduardo Montealegre, to build on his legacy. He
justified his firing of a number of government employees for
corruption, downplaying the fact that they had recently
abandoned his Alliance for the Republic (APRE) party to join
Arnoldo Aleman's Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC).
According to a recent private sector-contracted Cid-Gallup
poll, Daniel Ortega leads with 26%, followed by Liberal
dissident Eduardo Montealegre at 22%, Sandinista dissident
Herty Lewites 16%, and PLC candidate Jose Rizo trailing at
12%. The poll suggests that in a runoff between Montealegre
and Ortega, Montealegre will win. The region's capital
appears to realize that Montealegre is the most viable
candidate to beat Ortega, but this sentiment could shift if
Rizo's numbers rise and/or support for Montealegre wanes. At
present, the PLC appears increasingly desperate for funds,
possibly prompting the party to spread rumors that Washington
will soon replace the U.S. Ambassador. END SUMMARY


2. (C) On June 2, Ambassador, DCM, and polcouns lunched at
the Presidency with an upbeat President Bolanos, along with
Foreign Minister Caldera, adviser Frank Arana, and former
Minister of Transport Pedro Solorzano. Bolanos justified his
recent firing of a number of government employees, including
former Minister of Family Ivania Toruno and Telcor director
Martha Lugo, while downplaying the fact that they had
recently abandoned his Alliance for the Republic (APRE) party
to join Arnoldo Aleman's Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC).
Bolanos remarked that the removal of these and other
officials supporting the PLC would cut off their "access" to
government funds. While Bolanos justified his firing of
these turncoat officials for reasons of corruption, Solorzano
went to great lengths to dispel the charges of corruption and
mismanagement during his tenure as Transport Minister,
terming them false and politically motivated (Reftel).


3. (SBU) NOTE/COMMENT: Bolanos' decision to fire these
officials has drawn considerable criticism from competing
presidential candidates, especially Jose Rizo and Herty
Lewites, the latter suggesting that all candidates should
resign from the government. Nicaragua electoral law does
not/not require that candidates resign from office, unless
they are running for president or vice president. END
NOTE/COMMENT.

POLL CONVINCES FINANCIERS THAT MONTEALEGRE, NOT RIZO, CAN
BEAT ORTEGA
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4. (C) Confiding to Ambassador the desire for his successor
to build on his legacy, Bolanos reiterated his support for
Eduardo Montealegre. Bolanos' senior political adviser Frank
Arana shared details of the recent private sector-contracted
Cid-Gallup poll (conducted during the third week in May with
1,162 respondents, 3% margin of error). He recounted how 22
financiers from the region, including Carlos Pellas envoys,
had met on June 1 to hear the results of the poll. Daniel
Ortega leads with 26%, followed by Liberal dissident Eduardo
Montealegre at 22%, Sandinista dissident Herty Lewites 16%,
and PLC candidate Jose Rizo 12%. In the poll, 12% did not
reveal their preference; 11% claimed they will not vote.
However, support for the legislative slates of candidates
favored Ortega and Rizo: 30% will vote for FSLN; 22% for PLC;
11% for Montealegre's ALN; and 8% for Lewites' MRS. (NOTE:
the survey was conducted before May 31 when parties
registered their National Assembly and Parlacen lists. END
NOTE.)


5. (C) According to Arana, the poll also suggests that no
candidate will win on the first round, and in the likely
event the two frontrunners are Montealegre and Ortega,
Montealegre will win with over double the votes of Ortega's.
He also shared that in a scenario pitting Ortega against Rizo
in a runoff, Rizo could win by 2%. However, given the
likelihood that the FSLN could easily steal 2% to 5% of the
vote, plus the 3% margin of error, Ortega could beat Rizo,
warned Arana.

PLC APPROACHES TAIWAN
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6. (S) Bolanos alerted Ambassador that Aleman supporters
have approached the Taiwanese government to seek its
financial backing for PLC candidate Rizo. According to
Bolanos and his advisers, PLC campaign manager Gilberto Wong,
whose brother was until recently Nicaragua's ambassador to
Taipei, is leading this effort and has requested USD 7
million for Rizo's campaign. He warned that Taiwanese
support for the PLC would be disastrous. Bolanos remarked
that he recently discussed with his Taiwanese counterpart the
possibility of Taiwanese support for Liberal dissident
Eduardo Montealegre. According to Bolanos, the Taiwanese
president was receptive to the idea. (NOTE: President
Bolanos plans on visiting Taiwan o/a June 9, along with chief
of staff Leonardo Somarriba, and they intend to pursue this
possibility further at that time. END NOTE.)

POLTICS MAKES FOR STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
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7. (C) A bemused Bolanos related the ironies of Nicaraguan
politics, citing the fact that his logical enemies, the
Sandinistas (FSLN),have become "strange friends," supporting
him on a number of laws, including the Framework Law (that
allowed him to continue governing) and legislation required
for CAFTA implementation. Bolanos was optimistic that the
FSLN will also support him on the destruction of 651 MANPADS.
He lamented that the PLC, which normally would be an
ideological ally of his government, has refused to support
important legislation because he refused to support amnesty
for their leader Arnoldo Aleman.

WHAT'S WITH MORALES?
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8. (C) Speculation arose regarding Ortega VP
candidate/Liberal dissident lawmaker Jaime Morales' decision
to run on the FSLN ticket. Bolanos ventured that Morales had
concluded that even if the PLC won the election, Morales
would still enjoy Ortega's protection. And, if Ortega lost
to Montealegre, Morales would have a National Assembly seat
(second-place presidential and vice-presidential candidates
are accorded Assembly seats). Bolanos also noted that Jaime
Morales' brother, millionaire Rene Morales, firmly backs
Montealegre. (NOTE: Over the weekend, glossy, blue and
yellow posters featuring Morales appeared in Managua. These
posters underscore the FSLN's "reconciliation" ticket as one
that will bring peace and prosperity to Nicaraguans. In
Managua, FSLN propaganda outnumbers other party campaign
materials by at least ten to one. END NOTE.)

COMMENT
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9. (S) Now that the bulk of the region's capital, including
Carlos Pellas, appears to realize that Montealegre is the
most viable candidate to beat Ortega and lead Nicaragua in
the right direction, we can expect these financiers will
direct the bulk of their funding to his campaign. The next
series of polls will be crucial, however. If Rizo's numbers
do not rise, support for him will likely migrate to
Montealegre, while, if Rizo gains ground and Montealegre's
support wanes or stagnates, much of the region's private
sector may reconsider. In any event, some financiers, like
Pellas, will probably hedge their bets by contributing more
modest sums to Ortega and Rizo. We also hear that now that
the private sector appears less willing to support the PLC,
and the party no longer enjoys access to Nicaraguan
government coffers, the PLC is desperate for funds.
Possibly, this desperation has prompted PLC-owned media and
outlets sympathetic to its cause, such as the Arnoldista rag
"La Trinchera," to spread the rumor that Washington will soon
replace the U.S. Ambassador.
TRIVELLI