NICARAGUA: DEMOCRACY PROMOTION PROGRESS REPORT

S E C R E T MANAGUA 001105

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KCOR NU
SUBJECT: NICARAGUA: DEMOCRACY PROMOTION PROGRESS REPORT

REF: A. MANAGUA 1079


B. 05 MANAGUA 3213

C. 05 MANAGUA 2719

Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: This cable update's post's democracy
promotion strategy submitted in October and reviewed in
December 2005 (refs B and C). Now that the executive will in
all likelihood remain in place through the end of President
Bolanos' term, we must focus on the results of Nicaragua's
national elections. Nicaragua faces an electoral crossroads
in -- the five-way race may increase the chances of an FSLN
victory, but at the same time offers the Nicaraguan people
the tools to break from the corrupt caudillo rule of the
past. The USG can best help Nicaraguans exercise this option
by ensuring free and fair elections, encouraging support for
democratic candidates, reminding Nicaraguans of the perils of
returning to the past, and encouraging high voter
participation. End Summary.

Ensure Free and Fair Elections
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2. (C) The foundation of our strategy to ensure free and fair
elections in November consists of technical support to the
CSE, observation, voter education and awareness, and training
of elections officials and monitors. On the political side,
we must work to ensure that the will of the Nicaraguan people
is not thwarted by exclusion of dissident candidates by
Nicaragua's politicized courts or judicial system. The
following is a summary of our accomplishments to date and
planned activities:

- Technical Support to CSE: The OAS plans to provide a set of
recommendations to the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) via an
elections expert to improve the CSE's electoral regulations.
According to elections team leader Gustavo Fernandez, these
recommendations will help clarify the elections ground rules
and allow the CSE less room for subjective maneuvering during
the period of legal challenges to voting results. IFES is
offering to support the technical training to CSE staff
(including the partisan officials that man the voting
tables),the drafting and production of regulations manuals,
and web site design.

- Observation: The OAS will field an international
observation mission with USG support. (Note: Emboffs plan to
participate in the OAS mission. End Note.) Through local
NGO Ethics and Transparency (ET),NDI will help fund a local
observation team and national quick count on election day.
(Comment: The quick count is crucial since the CSE does not
plan to release preliminary voting results until two weeks
after election day -- plenty of time for the PLC and FSLN to
meddle with the vote count. End Comment.) The European
Union, local NGO IPADE, and others will also field
observation teams on election day.

- Training for Elections Monitors: IRI will hold training
seminars for the official voting observers (fiscales) of the
non-pact parties (ALN, MRS, and AC). IRI will not train
fiscales from the PLC and FSLN since, given the electoral
regulations, these parties are automatically represented at
each voting table and will receive training through IFES.

- Ensuring Democratic Choice: Nicaragua is anticipating
historical elections in November as the political spectrum
has seen major splits on both the Right (Eduardo Montealegre)
and the Left (Herty Lewites) in response to the corrupt and
anti-democratic activities of the two major parties.
Contacts have warned us on numerous occasions that the PLC
and FSLN may abuse their positions in the CSE or justice
system to disqualify Lewites and/or Montealegre. Ambassador
has repeated on numerous occasions that the inhibition of
either of these alternative candidates would impugn the
credibility of the elections. The Swedish and Finnish
ambassadors have repeated this declaration. Post and
Washington must work to promote this message and encourage
other local embassies (especially donor countries) to do the
same.

Encourage Support of Democratic Candidates
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3. (S/NF) The inscription of political alliances at the CSE
on May 11 marked a watershed in negotiations to unite the
Liberal forces. Ultimately, Montealegre refused to join with
a PLC controlled by Arnoldo Aleman, while former "Third Way"
presidential candidate Jose Antonio Alvarado embraced the PLC
in exchange for the party's vice presidential nomination.
The alliances have until May 31 to register candidates for
elected positions, and, as senior Montealegre advisor Edmundo
Leal recently informed poloff, the ALN is holding open its
first national deputy position, possibly in anticipation of a
defection from a senior member of the PLC. The USG should
encourage support of democratic candidates by encouraging
funds to flow in the right direction; promoting defections of
salvageable individuals from the PLC camp; granting
Montealegre high-profile meetings in the United States;
bringing internationally recognized speakers to discuss
successful reform campaigns; and countering direct partisan
support to the FSLN from external forces (notably Venezuela
and Cuba):

- Directing Funds: After numerous discreet meetings with
Emboffs and others on the subject, post has received
information from several sources that major Nicaraguan
financier Carlos Pellas has decided to back Montealegre and
withdraw support from PLC candidate Jose Rizo. (Note: Local
media outlets recently reported that Mexican capital is
contributing to Rizo's campaign. End Note.) We should
continue to encourage Pellas and other Nicaraguan and
international financiers to "do the right thing" by
supporting Montealegre (or Lewites). The PLC's most credible
talking point on why major actors should back them instead of
Montealegre is that only they have the "party structure" and
recognition to defeat the FSLN. Montealegre's advisors have
assured us that they too can build an adequate party
structure with sufficient funding -- an ALN-affiliated NGO
recently submitted a $1.3 million proposal to IRI to train
ALN candidates and poll watchers. (Comment: Nicaraguan
capital typically provides to support to all sides in an
election -- including the FSLN. This behavior is likely to
continue. Thus, our goal should be to sway the great
majority of these funds to the democratic candidates. End
Comment.)

- Promoting Defections: Several high-profile National
Assembly deputies have left PLC and ally parties for the ALN.
These include Alfonso Ortega Urbina and Bladimir Pineda
(formerly PLC),and Delia Arellano (formerly Camino
Cristiano). More recently, APRE president Miguel Lopez
Baldizon joined the ALN caucus and National Assembly
president Eduardo Gomez is expected to follow suit after he
returns from medical treatment abroad. In addition, much of
the PLC's departmental leadership has defected to the ALN,
and several PLC mayors covertly support Montealegre. A
senior Montealegre advisor recently credited Emboff's
reporting trips to the departments to meet with local leaders
and explain USG policy as "very helpful" in this regard. In
addition, Polcouns recently facilitated contacts between
Montealegre and Yatama dissidents unhappy with leader
Brooklyn Rivera's self-serving deal with FSLN leader Daniel
Ortega. These meetings resulted in a highly publicized
alliance between Montealegre and the Yatama group on May 14.
Poloffs also exploited a break in PLC-APRE alliance
negotiations to facilitate an APRE rapprochement with the ALN
that resulted in a last-minute surprise alliance with
Montealegre. Arnoldo Aleman and other PLC leaders have
promised positions on the PLC's deputy slate to numerous
Liberals -- reportedly far more than the PLC can accommodate.
After the PLC is forced to define its slate on May 31,
Emboffs will meet with senior PLC leaders who may be
disappointed with the results and susceptible to defection.

- Comment on Primaries Proposal: In April, post developed and
presented a proposal for multi-party primaries to all
factions (including the PLC) that had expressed an interest
in such a project. Although the proposal was accepted only
by the ALN, it forced the other parties to "show their cards"
regarding their real interest in internal reform and
highlighted the ALN as the only truly democratic Liberal
force. End Comment.

- Meetings for Montealegre: The Nicaraguan political class is
quite savvy reading the "winds of change" in Washington. The
tabloid press has already reported on Jose Rizo's inability
to secure high-level meetings with USG officials. Such
attention would confirm Montealegre's status as a candidate
acceptable to the USG to those Liberals sensitive to our
preferences. These meetings should be balanced by similar,
parallel offers to Herty Lewites as the other democratic
candidate.

- Present Successful Dissident Leaders: A significant
obstacle for Montealegre and Lewites is the belief among many
Liberal and Sandinista voters that only the PLC and FSLN,
regardless of the sins of their leaders, have the strength to
defeat the other. Post would like the Department's
assistance to sponsor a series of "reformist leaders" such as
Vaclav Havel, Ukranian President Viktor Yushchenko, Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili, and Lech Walesa, to explain to
the Nicaraguan people how their dissident movements were able
to bring down the corrupt old guard and strengthen democracy
in their respective countries.

- Countering External Support to FSLN: In addition to
Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez' brazen and direct
endorsement of FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega, Venezuela and
Cuba have been providing increased financial and material
support to FSLN leaders (ref A). Cuba and Venezuela have
given programming, press footage, transmitters, and other
equipment as well as money to Sandinista media outlets.
Sixty Venezuelan "trainers" recently visited FSLN Pacific
coast mayors to teach them to get out the vote (the Chavez
way). In addition, Venezuela has provided loans and
fertilizer to farmers in FSLN districts, offered medical
services, and promised to supply Sandinista mayors with
discounted oil. To assist in electoral fraud, Venezuela has
provided the CSE with poor quality ink (easily wiped off to
facilitate multiple voting) and has reportedly rigged the
delegation of Latin America Electoral Council (CELA)
delegates by "screening" the members for the Nicaraguan
elections. Post does not have the funding and programmatic
flexibility that the Venezuelans enjoy and would appreciate
guidance on how to counter Chavez' strategy.

Remind Nicaraguans of the Perils of Returning to the Past
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4. (C) The official voting age in Nicaragua is 16, and given
the base-heavy age pyramid in the country, a large number of
potential voters do not remember the "bad old days" of
Sandinista rule -- only the corruption and ineffectiveness of
subsequent Liberal governments. The USG should ensure that
the electorate is reminded that a return to Sandinismo under
the un-reformed leadership of Daniel Ortega -- or a party
controlled by Arnoldo Aleman -- would be tragic for the
country by advertising the atrocities committed by the
Sandinista Army against Atlantic Coast indigenous groups in
the 1980s, promoting Zoilamerica Narvaez' human rights abuse
case against stepfather Ortega before the Inter-American
Human Rights Council, facilitating
corruption/money-laundering cases pending against Aleman in
Nicaragua, Florida, Panama, and the Dominican Republic,
encouraging the European Union and others to declare Aleman
persona non grata, and working with the Elections Donor Group
to issue a statement warning Nicaraguans of the consequences
of an Ortega or Aleman-controlled government.

- Sandinista Atrocities: USAID is funding a CPDH project to
document interviews recounting Sandinista atrocities on the
Atlantic Coast in the 1980s involving a dirty war of forced
marches, disappearances, crop burning, and assassinations,
primarily targeting the Miskito Indian population. The
project, still in development, has already generated
considerable consternation in the Sandinista ranks (resulting
in death threats to the organizers) and generated more
sympathy for the ALN among the indigenous population. Some
Miskito contacts believe that a press conference announcing
the preliminary results a few days before the March 5
Atlantic Coast regional elections may have cost the FSLN
votes (the party indeed fared significantly worse than polls
predicted). We should continue to support CPDH and ensure
that the results are brought to the Nicaraguan public's
attention before November. An ad campaign to remind voters
of the past and its impediments in promoting new economic
opportunities is essential as is the timing of the campaign.
Post seeks funds for big media buys on radio and television
beginning in August and peaking in October.

- The Narvaez Case: Daniel Ortega's stepdaughter, Zoilamerica
Narvaez, brought a case against Ortega in 1998 for rape,
sexual abuse, and sexual harassment but the case was
suppressed in Nicaragua for political reasons. Narvaez is
interested in continuing her case before the Inter-American
Human Rights Commission (IAHRC). Zoilamerica submitted a
letter to the IAHRC on April 8, confirming her interest in
continuing her case, and noting that an amicable settlement
with the GON had not succeeded. Subsequently, IAHCR director
Santiago Canton Nelson contacted her in fall 2002 and offered
his support. According to Zoilamerica, the GON ceased its
negotiations with her in fall 2002 as part of its agreement
with Ortega to support the removal of Aleman's immunity.
Embassy is drawing on its democracy funds to CPDH to assist
Narvaez in advancing her own case as well as strengthening
her foundation Sobrevivientes (Survivors),which deals with
domestic violence. Narvaez will visit Miami in June under
the sponsorship of Vital Voices and then wishes to travel to
Washington to meet with OAS and State Department officials as
well as with NGOs possibly interested in advancing her case.
Post has sought desk assistance in arranging appointments at
the Department and with NGOs. By our facilitating Narvaez'
efforts to obtain a hearing, attention will be drawn towards
Ortega's character and gender issues in Nicaragua.

- Aleman's Trials: Arnoldo Aleman is currently serving a
20-year sentence for money laundering and fraud in Nicaragua,
although he has been granted a "medical parole" by a friendly
judge that allows him to move freely around Managua. Fervent
Arnoldistas repeat that his conviction was politically
motivated and that Aleman is being persecuted by his enemies
in the FSLN and Bolanos Administration. In addition to his
current conviction, however, Aleman and his family are the
subjects of a civil forfeiture trial and criminal
investigation in Florida, a criminal investigation in the
Dominican Republic, a criminal trial in Panama (in which a
judge found probable cause at a preliminary hearing on May
17),and an additional criminal investigation in Nicaragua,
where prosecutors expect an indictment in early August.
Nicaraguan investigators will travel to the National Drug
Intelligence Center in Pennsylvania June 4-17 to analyze
documents and organize evidence for the case. Nicaraguan
investigators and prosecutors are ready and willing to assist
the USG and other governments to pursue the other cases
against Aleman. The USG should take advantage of these
resources and pursue convictions against Aleman and his
relatives without delay. Foreign convictions would severely
damage the Arnoldista's claims that Aleman's local conviction
was purely a political maneuver and hopefully weaken the PLC
leadership's commitment to this corrupt individual.

- Declaring Aleman Persona Non Grata: A series of U.S. visa
revocations against corrupt PLC officials weakened the PLC's
resolve and has caused a few leaders to leave the PLC or
re-think their allegiance to Aleman. The hard core
Alemanistas that remain in the PLC, however, have claimed
that further revocations will not weaken the resolve of the
loyalists and have tied the revocations to USG support for
Montealegre. Action against Aleman, his family, and core
supporters from other countries would send an unequivocal
signal that Aleman is not an acceptable actor on the
international stage and defray the accusation that he is
suffering politically-motivated persecution from the USG.
Post understands that Spain is working to have Aleman
declared persona non grata in the Schengen Group of European
countries. The Panamanian court's May 15 order of
preventative detention for Aleman, his wife Maria Fernanda,
farther-in-law Jose Antonio Flores Lobo, and Byron Jerez may
serve to discourage Nicaraguan voter support for the PLC and
could encourage more politicians to rally around Montealegre.
The USG should support this initiative and encourage other
countries, especially in Latin America, to take similar
action.

- Donor Group Statement: Emboffs have worked with like-minded
countries to form an Elections Donor Group and coordinate
funding. The Donor Group has committed to activities such as
observation, fiscal and party official training, cedula
production and distribution, and voter registration. The
Donor Group could send a powerful message by releasing a
joint statement explaining that Donor Group countries are
committed to helping Nicaragua conduct free and fair
elections and will respect the results of such an election;
however, Group members would have to seriously reconsider
current aid packages if a government controlled by Ortega or
Aleman obtains power. Local officials at the German and
Dutch embassies have expressed tentative approval for such a
statement. Emboffs will continue to meet with local
counterparts, and conversations at the Foreign Ministry level
would also be useful. (Note: Sweden and Denmark recently cut
off funding to the politicized and corrupt Human Rights
Ombudsman. End Note.) The Donor Group is comprised of:
Japan, Canada, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Spain, the
Netherlands, Sweden, Germany (currently holds the EU
presidency for Luxembourg),the European Union Delegation,
and the U.S.

Encourage High Voter Participation
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5. (C) According to historical trends, Nicaraguan voter
participation in national elections has been high (over 85%),
which has been a key factor contributing to FSLN defeats.
FSLN voters tend to be more disciplined and organized, as
shown in regional in municipal elections where FSLN
supporters have provided a predictable core voting base.
Conversely, Liberal and independent voters have shown less
inclination to vote consistently. Disturbingly, the CSE has
over 200,000 national ID/voting cards (cedulas) that remain
undistributed and also faces a significant backlog of cedulas
yet to be produced. To ensure high turnout on election day,
we must encourage Nicaraguans to obtain a cedula and vote,
while facilitating the production and distribution of cedulas
to all qualified voters:

- Get Out the Vote: IRI is sponsoring focus groups,
conferences, and workshops on political party activities as
well as funding a voter education campaign that encourage
citizens to obtain a cedula, verify their status on the voter
registry, and participate in the electoral process. Through
JUDENIC, IRI is planning a "Rock the Vote" campaign to target
youth voters which make up more than sixty percent of the
voting population. NDI is working with ET to conduct a
national review of the official voter lists (padron).
Potential voters will not only recognize the importance of
the youth vote.

- Distribution of Cedulas: IFES has completed an inventory of
the approximately 200,000 cedulas produced by the CSE but not
recovered by their owners. IFES plans to execute a public
information campaign to encourage voters to retrieve their
cedulas and also assist the CSE to transport the cedulas to
more accessible locations using mobile units. Emboffs are
encouraging CSE officials to facilitate IFES activities.
NDI, through ET and UCA, is conducting a review of the cedula
issuance process to determine where delays are present in the
CSE pipeline and whether or not partisan influence factors
into the efficiency of cedula issuance. NDI is also funding,
through Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN),Citizen Attention
Centers to help Nicaraguans complete the paperwork necessary
to obtain a cedula.
TRIVELLI