Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LUSAKA1357
2006-10-03 04:53:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lusaka
Cable title:  

FIRST GLANCE AT 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS

Tags:  PGOV ZA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7463
OO RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1357/01 2760453
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030453Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3267
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 001357 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: FIRST GLANCE AT 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS

REF: A) LUSAKA 1303; B) LUSAKA 862; C) 05 LUSAKA 643

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 001357

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: FIRST GLANCE AT 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS

REF: A) LUSAKA 1303; B) LUSAKA 862; C) 05 LUSAKA 643


1. (U) Summary. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) and local
media have announced the results of 107 of the 150 parliamentary
races that were held on September 28, in conjunction with
presidential and local government elections. As expected, the
results show strong rural support for the ruling Movement for
Multi-party Democracy (MMD),in contrast to solid Patriotic Front
(PF) support in urban areas. The United Democratic Alliance (UDA)
won most seats in Southern Province, as well as several seats in
Eastern and Western Provinces. With over two-thirds of the outcomes
announced, it is now possible to look ahead at contenders for
cabinet and senior government positions. End summary.

--------------
GENERAL TRENDS
--------------


2. (U) As of October 2, 2006, the ECZ has announced results to 95 of
the 150 parliamentary races that were held in conjunction with
presidential and local government elections on September 28. Local
media have reported results to another 12 races, bringing the total
to 107. Results from 41 constituencies are outstanding, and another
two seats will be decided in by-elections to be held at a later
date, due to deaths of candidates in September. While the
presidential elections are expected to be concluded at 18:00 local
time on September 28, it is likely that the parliamentary elections
will continue through October 3.


3. (U) As expected (Ref A),rural voters remained loyal to the MMD,
while urban voters rallied to support PF candidates. The UDA drew
its support mostly from the Southern Province. The breakdown is as
follows:

Province MMD PF UDA Other Pending
-------------- --- -- --- -------------- --------------
Central 10 - - - 4
Copperbelt 3 15 - - 4
Eastern 10 - 3 - 6
Luapula 5 2 - 1 6
Lusaka 5 5 - - 2
Northern 8 4 - - 9
North-Western 7 - 1 - 4
Southern - - 16 2 1
Western 8 - 1 1 7
--- -- --- -------------- --------------
TOTAL 56 26 21 4 43



4. (U) The results clearly contradict pronouncements in the media

that the PF had gained ground in the Central Province. They do show
strong PF support in the urban constituencies of Lusaka and
Copperbelt provinces. MMD held its ground in the rural Copperbelt
provinces, perhaps owing in part to President Mwanawasa's heritage
(his mother is from the matrilineal Lamba tribe, from the southern
Copperbelt region) as well the region's long-standing ties to the
MMD party.


5. (SBU) Of the 107 winning candidates, only 31 are returning
parliamentarians (29 were elected in the 2001 National Assembly
elections and 2 were nominated to parliament by Mwanawasa). Of
these, 4 switched parties in the run-up to the elections: former
MMD MP Willie Nsanda and former UPND MP Henry Mtonga defected to the
PF, former Zambian Republican party (ZRP) MP Sylvia Masebo switched
to MMD, and former UPND MP Sakwiba Sikota represented the United
Liberal Party (ULP). The failure of more MP's to be re-elected
reflects a general discontent with the current administration and
re-enforces the "call for change" that ignited presidential
candidate Michael Sata's campaign in order to accelerate the rate of
development and poverty alleviation through more jobs, housing and
worker entitlements.

--------------
LOOKING AHEAD
--------------


6. (U) With over two-thirds of the parliamentary candidate races
already resolved, it is now possible to begin looking ahead to who
might sit in the new cabinet, as well as who might not.


7. (U) The following influential ruling MMD party candidates were
not elected:

--Former Vice President Lupando Mwape was not re-elected. After
results were announced in the Lukashya constituency, where he ran,
PF cadres were reported to have chanted "Katoloshi, itoloshi
yalepuka a shala fye na bombasa" (meaning, the trousers have been
torn and he has only remained with underwear). According to the
Constitution, having lost a parliamentary race he may not be
re-appointed to serve as Vice-President or to hold any cabinet
position. Some speculate that he will be given some form of

LUSAKA 00001357 002 OF 002


responsibility, such as an Ambassadorial position, given his
campaign support to the president.

--Austin Chewe, the MMD candidate in the urban Munali constituency
in Lusaka (vacated by Forum for Democracy and Development President
Edith Nawakwi),a successful businessman who unsuccessfully
contested the MMD vice presidency in 2005 (Ref C),lost to PF
candidate Josephine Chilufya Mumbi, a university lecturer and local
businesswoman, who benefited from Sata's strong popularity in urban
Lusaka.

--Eugene Appel, MMD, a former Deputy Minister of Trade, Commerce and
Industry

--Patricia Nawa, who ran on an independent ticket, was a former
Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) MP and Deputy Minister of
Defense


8. (U) The following senior MMD MPs who served as Ministers in the
first Mwanawasa presidency were reelected:

--Lt. Gen. Ronnie Shikapwasha, former Foreign Minister as well as
Home Affairs

--Gladys Nyirongo, a former Minister of Lands as well as Sport,
Youth and Child Development

--George Mpombo, a former Minister of Energy and Copperbelt
Province

--Kennedy Sakeni, former Minister of Luapala Province

--Sylvia Masebo, former Health Minister

--Clever Silavwe, former Minister of Northern Province

--Gaston Sichilima, a former Deputy Minister of Information and
Broadcasting

--Kapembwa Simbao, a former Deputy Minister of Health

--Felix Mutati, former Energy Minister

--Brian Chituwo, former Minister of Education, and of Health

--Ng'andu Peter Mangande, former Minister of Finance and National
Planning

--Benny Tetamashimba, former Deputy Minister of Information and
Broadcasting

--Kabinga Pande, former Tourism Minister


9. (SBU) Although former Minister of Trade, Commerce and Industry
Dipak Patel did not seek re-election, he was actively involved in
MMD campaigning, and is rumored to be a front-runner for a
cabinet-level position. Many expect Mwanawasa to nominate him to
Parliament. Patel has told many that his "dream job is to be
Minister of Finance." Patel's vacant seat in the densely-populated
Lusaka Central constituency had the largest number of candidates of
any constituency in the country: 12. The victor was Guy Scott,
Secretary General of PF party, who defeated UDA's Nigenda Sipalo, a

SIPDIS
respected lawyer and human rights activist, MMD's Rose Zimba and 9
other contenders.

--------------
QUESTIONABLE CHOICES
--------------


10. (SBU) The MMD slate was notable for three of its candidates who
are under investigation for corruption (Ref B): Michael Mabenga,
MMD National Chairman and former Defense Minister; Katele Kalumba,
MMD National Secretary and former Treasury Minister; and David
Diangamo, former Deputy Secretary to the Cabinet responsible for
Finance and Economic Development. Both Mabenga and Kalumba were
re-elected, in spite of their tarnished reputations.


11. (SBU) COMMENT: Although many of the same faces in the first
Mwanawasa presidency may reappear in the new Cabinet, we expect to
see some shuffling of portfolios as well as several new faces.

MARTINEZ