MWANAWASA LEADS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE, BUT SLOW AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 001350

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDING CAPTION)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC ZA
SUBJECT: MWANAWASA LEADS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE, BUT SLOW AND
UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE

REF: A. LUSAKA 1349


B. LUSAKA 1340

C. LUSAKA 1303

D. LUSAKA 1302

Classified By: DCM Andrew Passen, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Based on results reported from 80 percent of
the constituencies around the country, President Mwanawasa of
the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) enjoys a
healthy lead over Patriotic Front (PF) and United Democratic
Alliance (UDA) opponents. The Electoral Commission of Zambia
(ECZ) garnered praise from international observers (Ref A)
and local civil society organizations for its handling of the
election, but its management of the election results
reporting process has been less efficient and less
transparent, enabling opposition parties to raise doubts and
reduce voter confidence in the vote counting and tabulation
process. These doubts fueled sometimes-violent protests by
angry political party supporters, who alleged foul play by
the ECZ. The Embassy does not believe that the ECZ has
engaged in any improper activity, but the Commission's
failure to act quickly to address noted discrepancies and its
uneven announcement of election results fuels the
(mis)perception of wrongdoing and provides an opportunity
that opposition leaders like Michael Sata are happy to
exploit. End summary.

INITIAL RESULTS -- OPPOSITION AHEAD


2. (SBU) Following national elections on September 28, the
ECZ began to release official election results at a 20:00
briefing on Friday September 29 for media, political party
representatives, domestic monitors and international
observers. This and all subsequent ECZ briefings were
broadcast live on local electronic media. However, the
Elections Results Center at Mulungushi Conference Center had
no signboards listing results, nor did it make available
written copies of results from constituencies. The ECZ held
a second briefing at 23:00 on September 29, and by this time
had reported presidential race results from 26 of Zambia's
150 constituencies. The early results, predominantly from
densely-populated urban Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces, gave
a strong lead to Patriotic Front (PF) candidate Michael Sata
(who received close to 50 percent of reported votes in these
constituencies, against 28 percent for President Mwanawasa of
the MMD and 20 percent for the UDA's Hakainde Hichilema),
raising the hopes of Sata's supporters. These results were
in line with Sata's strong base of support in urban Lusaka
and the main cities and towns in the Copperbelt.

INDEPENDENT PAPER - "RULING PARTY POISED TO WIN"


3. (SBU) The September 30 edition of the independent daily
The Post newspaper (Ref D) ran the banner headline "Levy
Headed for Victory," and based its report on "MMD sources"
who said that the party would win seats in at least 75
National Assembly constituencies around the country. The
article also quoted Sata as saying he would not accept any
results short of a PF victory and, "Tell Levy that if they
play some monkey tricks, the consequences will be too ghastly
for them to contemplate." In the afternoon, angry PF
supporters marched on the newspaper's downtown office to
protest the story, but a strong police presence helped keep
the crowds peaceful and in check. The Post's front page also
carried an article reporting that Sata asked the country's
highest ranking civil servant, Secretary to the Cabinet
Joshua Kanganja, to change the inauguration venue to a local
stadium to enable more guests to be invited, and demanded
that former president of Malawi Bakili Muluzi, the President
of Taiwan, and Taiwan's Ambassador to Malawi be invited to
the ceremony. Sata also allegedly requested that Zimbabwean
president Robert Mugabe be invited to be the guest speaker.

RESULTS REPORTING SLOWS, QUESTION RAISED ABOUT COUNTS


4. (SBU) At the 10:00 ECZ results briefing on Saturday,
September 30, the ECZ reported results from only 6 more
constituencies, including 4 from the Southern Province where
Sata is very weak. Sata's strong lead in the presidential
race slipped slightly. At this session, the ECZ began to
provide one representative of each political party copies of
the presidential race results by constituency. Others from
the media, civil society and international observer groups
did not receive the written results, nor was any information
posted for viewing at the Results Center. Judge Mambilima
announced that, due to concerns expressed by "stakeholders,"
the ECZ was basing its results reports on
manually-transmitted counts rather than using the electronic
results reporting system. As a result, the reporting process
would be much slower. A representative from the MMD noted
during a subsequent question and answer session that the PF
representative at the stakeholders meeting was the only one
who insisted on relying on the manual system, and other
UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE

political party representatives agreed to the demand.


5. (SBU) Mumba Kapumba, a self-proclaimed "independent
monitor" and local lawyer who represents at least one
PF-affiliated politician (former ZANACO Managing Director
Samuel Musonda) in a pending corruption case, raised a
question about a significant discrepancy (of 20,000 votes)
between the total number of votes cast for the President and
for the National Assembly candidate in Munali, a heavily
populated constituency in urban Lusaka. Judge Mambilima
appeared surprised to hear of such a large discrepancy, and
told Kapumba that the only information she had was the final
tallies provided by the local election officials who prepared
the tally. She said that the ECZ would follow up with those
officials to clarify the reported problem.

OPPOSITION LEAD SLIPS, AND SUPPORTERS CRY FOUL


6. (SBU) At the 16:00 briefing on September 30, Judge
Mambilima announced results from 16 additional
constituencies, including in Eastern and Southern provinces,
and Sata's lead was cut again. During the question and
answer session after the briefing, Judge Mambilima did not
yet have an answer to the Munali discrepancy query. Agitated
Patriotic Front representatives cried foul play and accused
an Electoral Commissioner, Noah Kalala, of being biased in
favor of the ruling MMD party because he was related to
"someone at State House." Kalala denied this and the
question and answer session began to spin out of control.
Shouting PF representatives were escorted out of the briefing
room by security guards and ECZ officials quickly called an
end to the briefing. Following this outburst, the ECZ set up
"Query Liaison Desks" at the Results Center to receive and
respond to questions and complaints, and Q&A sessions were
discontinued at subsequent ECZ briefings. Later on September
30, Sata met with media representatives and alleged that the
discrepancies between presidential and parliamentary counts
at the constituency level were occurring on a wide scale, and
that 400,000 votes for him had "been suppressed" or in some
cases "swapped." Based on this, he said he will demand a
nationwide verification of votes before final election
results are officially announced.

MWANAWASA TAKES LEAD, PF SUPPORTERS PROTEST


7. (U) The final results announcements on September 30 came
at 22:00. Judge Mambilima provided presidential vote tallies
from 21 more constituencies. Many of the constituencies were
from Central Province, considered an MMD stronghold, and the
cumulative tallies propelled Mwanawasa ahead of Sata and
Hichilema.


8. (SBU) The first ECZ briefing at 10:00 on Sunday October 1
provided results from 25 more constituencies, primarily in
areas where the PF is not strong, and the UDA's Hichilema
moved into second place ahead of Sata, while Mwanawasa's lead
grew larger. However, the ECZ did not release official
results of any National Assembly races and did not yet have a
clarification of the Munali constituency results, further
fueling PF supporters' suspicions of foul play. PF political
activists had gathered in large numbers in the area of
Mulungushi Conference Center, and the police presence was
beefed up accordingly. After the morning briefing, the PF
protestors clashed with police, who fired tear gas to
disperse the crowds. Crowds of PF supporters in Lusaka's
downtown area and in high-density low-income residential
areas also became violent and unruly.

ECZ PROVIDES MORE RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS


9. (SBU) During the day on October 1, the ECZ published the
presidential race tallies from 95 constituencies on its
website. However, at its election results briefings, it
continued to provide written results only to political party
representatives. At the 16:00 briefing on October 1, Judge
Mambilima announced results from an additional 26
constituencies from outlying areas, improving President
Mwanawasa's lead. The cumulative results from 120 of 150
constituencies, which represent 3,267,045 registered voters,
stood as follows: of 2,300,407 votes cast (70 percent voter
turnout),2,261,308 were valid; 39,099 (1.7 percent) were
rejected. MMD candidate President Mwanawasa was in the lead
with 952,650 votes (42.13 percent),followed by UDA candidate
Hichilema with 641,109 votes (28.35 percent) and PF candidate
Michael Sata with 615,429 votes (27.22 percent).


10. (SBU) Judge Mambilima also referred to the outstanding
question on discrepancies in Munali and said that the
election officials at the constituency level had been
checking through the tabulations and were almost finished.
She said the ECZ hoped to provide clarifications soon, and
also informed the audience that both the PF and UDA had
already sent formal requests for the verification of election
results to the ECZ. She stated that the ECZ's policy was
UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE

that if parties came forward with specific questions and
allegations, the ECZ would be pleased to follow up by asking
officials at the constituency level to recheck the vote
tabulation paperwork. Judge Mambilima emphasized that the
requests for clarification must be specific. Due to the
security problems experienced earlier on October 1, the ECZ
decided not to hold another late-night briefing. The next
briefing is scheduled for 10:00 on October 2.

COMMENT


11. (C) The ECZ's preparations for and management of election
results reporting was very weak, in contrast to its excellent
handling of the voting process on election day. Its failure
to publish results online in a timely manner or post them at
the Results Center for all accredited representatives to see
and access easily did little to inspire confidence. Further,
the ECZ's failure to respond quickly to a report of a
significant anomaly in the results gave the Patriotic Front
an opportunity to cast doubts over the entire tabulation
process, and to fuel existing skepticism about possible
vote-rigging. The Embassy does not believe that the ECZ has
engaged in any wrongdoing and suspects the delays and
unevenness in providing information and answers stems from
taking time to follow up carefully and comprehensively. The
ECZ's relatively poor performance in reporting results has
created an impression of possible interference in a
well-managed election process, and--because impressions often
matter more than facts or reality--caused the ECZ and the
election to lose credibility among some Zambian voters.
MARTINEZ