Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LUSAKA1303
2006-09-26 11:13:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lusaka
Cable title:  

Zambian Election Polls: Mwanawasa's Lead Slims, Opposition

Tags:  PGOV ZA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0443
RR RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1303/01 2691113
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261113Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3219
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001303 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: Zambian Election Polls: Mwanawasa's Lead Slims, Opposition
Candidates Gain

REFS: A) Lusaka 1269; B) Lusaka 1264; C) Lusaka 1183

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001303

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: Zambian Election Polls: Mwanawasa's Lead Slims, Opposition
Candidates Gain

REFS: A) Lusaka 1269; B) Lusaka 1264; C) Lusaka 1183


1. (SBU) Summary and introduction: In the final days before national
elections, a third Pangolin Consulting poll gives ruling Movement
for Multiparty Democracy President Levy Mwanawasa the lead, with 43
percent, against 24 percent for Patriotic Front candidate Michael
Sata and 23 percent for United Democratic Alliance candidate
Hakainde Hichilema. Compared to the second Pangolin poll (Ref B),
Mwanawasa has lost some support in almost every province, and his
overall level of support dropped as well, by 8 percentage points.
Sata's standing rose by 5 percentage points overall, and he gained
the most in Northern, Luapula and Central provinces. Hichilema's
overall rating rose by 7 points, and he enjoyed large increases in
Western, North Western and Southern provinces. The Patriotic Front
has reacted to the gains made by Hichilema, and already appears to
be preparing for a formal protest of the election results in case
its candidate loses. Meanwhile, a second poll by a little-known
group with alleged links to the University of Zambia (Ref B) put
Sata way ahead with 59 percent, against 23 percent for Mwanawasa and
17 percent for Hichilema. Polling is a new phenomenon in Zambia and
it is hard to be certain that any of the cited polls are objective
and accurate. End summary and introduction.

Nationwide Results Still Favor Mwanawasa


2. (SBU) University of Zambia Political Science Professor Neo
Simutanyi announced on September 25 results of a third and final
opinion poll, undertaken between September 15 and 19, 2006, in all
provinces of Zambia, with 3,000 respondents, using the same survey
instrument as in previous polls. The first question asked
respondents if they were satisfied with the government's performance
at the national level; 51 percent said yes (compared to 58 percent
in the second poll) and 45 percent said no (compared to 38 percent
in the second poll); 4 percent did not offer an opinion (same level
as in the second poll). The lower level of satisfaction may reflect
the effectiveness of opposition party campaigns that have attacked
the MMD for failing to deliver sufficient housing, health services,
and civil servant benefits.


3. (SBU) Simutanyi told P/E Officers on September 20 that Sata would
not be able to beat Mwanawasa because Sata lacks sufficient support

in four provinces: Western, North Western, Eastern, and Southern.
He also noted that gains made by UDA candidate Hichilema were coming
mainly at Sata's expense. (Note: This contention, however, is not
supported by the polling numbers, which show Hichilema's gains
coming mainly at Mwanawasa's expense, or from previously undecided
voters. End note.) Simutanyi and other political commentators
acknowledged that Sata had generated a demand for change among
voters. However, they observed that some voters viewed Hichilema as
better able to provide change. This perceived threat to Sata from
Hichilema was supported by the appearance of pro-Patriotic Front
campaign ads during the week of September 18 that proclaimed,
"WARNING! ...if you want to guarantee change and a popularly elected
president, be warned that a vote against Michael Sata is a vote for
Mwanawasa." The commentators noted that Hichilema was viewed
favorably and was considered to be a strong prospect for the 2011
presidential race, but that he was too new and even "too clean" to
be taken seriously by most voters in the 2006 election.

Provincial Breakdowns


4. (SBU) Despite a still-comfortable margin of 43 percent for
Mwanawasa to 24 percent for Sata, the final Pangolin poll report
notes that the presidential race will be close. It predicts that
Sata will win a majority of votes in Lusaka, Copperbelt and Luapula
provinces, and Hichilema will win a strong majority in Southern
Province and will draw from undecided voters to win in Eastern
Province as well. Mwanawasa is expected to win in Western, North
Western, Northern and Central provinces--although Sata has made
strides in both Northern and Central provinces between August and
September polling, and seems to have growing support in Northern
Province (see para 8). The results by province for each of the
three leading candidates are listed below, together with the results
from the previous poll conducted in August (Ref B),in parentheses,
to show trends and changes. All values represent percentages.

Central
Mwanawasa: 51 (64); Sata: 26 (19); Hichilema: 13 (7)

Copperbelt
Mwanawasa: 38 (41); Sata: 36 (31); Hichilema: 16 (15)

Eastern
Mwanawasa: 41 (44); Sata: 16 (10); Hichilema: 29 (19)

Luapula
Mwanawasa: 41 (40); Sata: 38 (30); Hichilema: 3 (1)

Lusaka
Mwanawasa: 37 (36); Sata: 35 (32); Hichilema 13 (11)

LUSAKA 00001303 002 OF 003



Northern
Mwanawasa: 59 (66); Sata 32 (18); Hichilema 2 (5)

North Western
Mwanawasa: 56 (56); Sata 1 (1); Hichilema 31 (24)

Southern
Mwanawasa: 28 (36); Sata 3 (4); Hichilema 63 (45)

Western
Mwanawasa 61 (81); Sata 7 (4); Hichilema 19 (2)

OVERALL
Mwanawasa 43 (51); Sata 24 (19); Hichilema 23 (16)

Protest from PF Already Anticipated


5. (SBU) Several political observers and civil society
representatives told P/E officers on September 20 that they expected
the Patriotic Front to protest election results if Sata is defeated.
The Patriotic Front appears to be laying the foundations for a
formal protest: its director of research sent a letter to Electoral
Commission of Zambia (ECZ) Chairperson Justice Irene Mambilima
raising objections to "Loopholes in the 2006 Electoral Process" and
indicating that unless the loopholes "...are sealed forthwith, the
Patriotic Front would not recognize a fraudulent electoral outcome."
The letter, dated September 21, 2006, was copied to all diplomatic
missions, political parties, election observer delegations, the
media, and key civil society groups. It questions the use of the
electronic results reporting system, claiming that the system was
supplied by a Chinese firm, and that "it is an open secret" that all
Chinese favor the MMD government. The letter raises other concerns
about alleged "suspicious activities" that accompanied preparations
for the 2006 elections, including the printing of voter registers,
the collection of voter cards from members of the Zambian military
serving in peacekeeping operations in Darfur and from the Zambian
police, and alleged "missing" ballots. (Note: Based on regular
donor representative discussions with the ECZ, post believes that
most of the concerns raised by the PF lack serious merit. End
note.)

Civil Society Concerns Linger


6. (SBU) Civil society organizations (CSOs) have echoed several
concerns raised in a recent meeting that donor missions had with the
ECZ Chairperson (Ref A). Representatives of leading CSOs told P/E
officers on September 20 that they are concerned about the ECZ's
inability to control the abuse of power by traditional leaders--some
of whom have beaten and threatened to expel subjects who do not
follow their election dictates--and the uneven access to electronic
media. While they acknowledged that the MMD government was behaving
better than they might have expected, they pointed out that the
ruling party still abused its control of resources by announcing
strategically-timed projects or provision of benefits, to gain
influence with voters. One representative also complained that the
ECZ's requirement for full investigation of any complaint of
Electoral Code of Conduct violations meant that follow up was
extremely slow, and ultimately was not meaningful.

Second Poll from Unknown Group Gives Sata Huge Lead


7. (SBU) September 25 papers carried reports that the "Network of
Social Science Researchers" released results of a second opinion
poll that indicated 59 percent of voters favored PF candidate
Michael Sata (a previous poll by the same group also gave Sata a
strong lead, see Ref A). MMD President Levy Mwanawasa received
support from only 23 percent of respondents, and UDA candidate
Hakainde Hichilema came in third, with 17 percent. The coordinator
of the network, Katongo Mulenga, claimed that the survey was
conducted in every province of Zambia and the sample size was 4,000
respondents. However, no further details of the results or
breakdowns by province are available. Mulenga is reportedly a
researcher at the University of Zambia, but several Embassy contacts
at the University's political science department tell us they have
no knowledge of any individual with this name, nor are they familiar
with the cited network of social science researchers. Post
continues to have doubts about the credibility of this poll.

Anecdotal Feedback: Strong Support for Sata


8. (SBU) The head of one civil society organization that plans to
field over 2,000 local election monitors told P/E Officers that
monitors who were already tracking the candidates' appearances at
campaign rallies reported strong enthusiasm in Kasama and elsewhere
in the Northern Province for Michael Sata. Microbus drivers who
support the PF candidate were offering free rides to Sata rallies
and many voters were walking long distances to hear Sata speak. By
contrast, the MMD has had to work hard and provide transport to
entice voters to attend its rallies, he reported. Also, Sata has

LUSAKA 00001303 003 OF 003


been happily mingling with the crowds and taking questions from
voters, in marked contrast to President Mwanawasa, who is flown or
driven to a site with great fanfare, delivers his remarks, and then
makes a quick exit. The CSO representative shared an anecdote about
a blind man who tried to query Mwanawasa about his plans to help the
disabled--before he could even finish his question, security guards
whisked him away and detained him, like a criminal. This approach
has not helped the President's cause, the representative noted. He
believed that Sata was gaining significant grassroots support all
around Northern Province as a result of his accessible style and
approach.

Interesting Demographic Notes from Pangolin Poll


9. (SBU) Prof. Simutanyi told us that Pangolin poll-takers collected
much more demographic information from poll respondents than was
divulged in the polling results report. For example, he noted that
the typical MMD supporter tended to have less education than a
typical Patriotic Front supporter. A greater number of MMD
supporters had only a primary level education, while more PF
supporters had completed secondary level studies, Simutanyi said.
Although at first glance this seems counterintuitive, it actually
reflects the MMD strategy of focusing on rural voters. Also, Sata
reportedly receives a great deal of support in urban areas not only
from unemployed (and this does not equate with uneducated) young
people, but also from skilled labor, who resent poor working
conditions, and from civil servants, who are frustrated with
long-delayed payments of benefits by the MMD government.

Pangolin Boss--Not Unbiased?


10. (SBU) Professor Simutanyi is a well-regarded political science
professor from the University of Zambia who owns and runs Pangolin
Consulting and writes a regular column in the independent daily
newspaper, The Post. His column of September 25, 2006 was entitled,
"Why I Won't Vote for Sata" and raised "grave misgivings" about
Sata's suitability for the office of president. Regardless of the
merit or truth in Simutanyi's statements about Sata, his public
declaration raises concerns about the objectivity of the Pangolin
polls. Simutanyi did not carry out the polling himself; his UNZA
colleague, Njekwa Mate, was responsible for managing and overseeing
the poll. Still, Simutanyi's public position creates an impression
of bias, at a minimum.

Comment


11. (SBU) Opinion polling is a new phenomenon in Zambia. Despite
what are probably good intentions, it is difficult to conclude that
polls are being conducted objectively and accurately. As noted
above, even respected academics are not without bias. The candidate
who poses the most serious threat to President Mwanawasa, Michael
Sata, has spent most of his time campaigning in Lusaka, Central,
Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern provinces, and we expect that he
will have a strong showing in these areas. Both Sata and Hichilema
appear to have gained support during September, and this trend may
continue right up until the election, at Mwanawasa's expense. We
tend to agree with Prof. Simutanyi's view that it may be hard for
Sata to prevail without stronger support in other provinces. But
the race will be close. What impresses us is that although
Mwanawasa's political advisors were likely pushing for an earlier
election date in order to leave less time for campaigning (at a
probable disadvantage to the opposition),Mwanawasa instead listened
to the Electoral Commission of Zambia Chairperson, and based the
date selection on his preference for holding a fair election and
ensuring that sufficient time was allowed for necessary election
preparations.

MARTINEZ