ZAMBIAN ELECTIONS--MWANAWASA LEADS, BUT SATA GAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LUSAKA 001264

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN ELECTIONS--MWANAWASA LEADS, BUT SATA GAINS

REF: A. LUSAKA 1054

B. LUSAKA 702

C. LUSAKA 693

D. 05 LUSAKA 1098

Classified By: CDA ANDREW PASSEN, SECTION 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: With less than two weeks until September 28
national elections, the second-runner, Michael Sata, appears
to be gaining ground on President Levy Mwanawasa, who
nonetheless still enjoys a comfortable lead. Results from
voter opinion polls vary, and one poll that gives Sata a
decisive margin appears to lack credibility. Two other
polls, based on surveys conducted in August, show Sata
gaining popularity, including in areas outside the poor urban
settings where he has always enjoyed strong support.
Complicating matters, the Electoral Commission of Zambia on
September 13 validated and referred to the Director of Public
Prosecutions a complaint against Sata for making false
statements when filing his nomination. It is not clear what,
if any, follow up action against Sata will be possible before
the election, but it is likely that any action the GRZ takes
will be perceived as politically motivated, to the possible
detriment of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy and
the President. End summary.

POLLS SHOW MWANAWASA RETAINS LEAD, WITH SATA GAINING


2. (SBU) The Steadman Group, which has experience with
polling in Kenya, an affiliation with Gallup International,
and a credible reputation, announced results of an election
poll on September 4, 2006. The poll covered all nine
provinces, had a sample size of 2,000 nation-wide
respondents, with a 40:60 urban to rural ratio. The margin
of error reported was plus/minus 2 percent with a 95 percent
confidence level. The poll was carried out between August 11
and 19, 2006, using face-to-face interviews. The Embassy
does not know how the Steadman poll was funded.


3. (U) Respondents viewed poverty and unemployment as the
"most pressing problems facing Zambia today," followed by
HIV/AIDS and corruption. Ninety-four percent of registered
voters indicated they plan to vote on September 28.
Regarding "qualities they considered most important for
person vying for the presidency in Zambia" respondents cited
leadership ability, education, "what they promise to
deliver," track record, and wealth as the most important
factors.


4. (U) Respondents' preferences for presidential candidates
were: 33 percent for Levy Mwanawasa (ruling MMD party); 24
percent for Michael Sata (Patriotic Front); 15 percent for
Hakainde Hichilema (United Democratic Alliance); 7 percent
for other candidates; 6 percent "don't know;" and 14 percent
"refused to answer." Based on the reported responses, if
Sata received votes from those who refused to answer, he
would come out ahead of Mwanawasa in the September 28 polls.


5. (SBU) In provincial breakdowns, Mwanawasa had the
strongest showing in Northwestern (52 percent),Northern (38
percent),Western (33 percent),and Copperbelt (34 percent,
just ahead of Sata's 33 percent) Provinces, while Hichilema
was strong in his home-base, Southern Province. Sata enjoyed
his strongest support in Luapula (48 percent),Lusaka (33
percent to Mwanawasa's 26 percent) and Northern (29 percent)
Provinces, but was extremely weak in Southern, Western and
Northwestern Provinces. Some local observers believe that
Sata's Patriotic Front party's limited presence in several
provinces may be a key factor in keeping Sata from winning
the presidential race.


6. (U) Unnamed individuals from the University of Zambia
(UNZA) reportedly announced on September 8 results of a poll
conducted "during August 2006" with 3,800 Zambian adults in
all nine provinces, asking simply who they would vote for in
the September 28 presidential election. According to media
reports, 52 percent of respondents said they would vote for
Michael Sata, 27 percent for Levy Mwanawasa, and 20 percent
for Hakainde Hichilema. Results by province were not
available. No margin of error was reported with the results.
Embassy has been unable to track down a copy of the poll or
the names of individuals responsible for the poll. As a
result, we have serious doubts about the poll's credibility.


7. (U) On September 9, political science professor at UNZA,
Neo Simutanyi, reported results of a second poll of 3,000
respondents conducted by his firm, Pangolin Consulting,
between August 24-28, 2006. The poll was funded by the
Zambian Elections Fund, which receives its support from
several donor governments, including the UK, the Netherlands
and Norway. The second survey expanded coverage from six to
all nine provinces, and dropped two questions relating to
health. One-third of respondents said the greatest area of

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concern to them was "agriculture" while 22 percent said
education was their greatest concern. The constitution and
election-related issues were of concern to less than one
percent of respondents. Key questions and responses from the
poll are summarized below.

A) Are you satisfied with the performance of the government
in the last five years?
Yes: 58 percent; No: 38 percent; Don't know/no answer: 4
percent.

B) If elections were to be held tomorrow, which party would
you vote for?
MMD: 50 percent; PF: 19 percent; UDA: 16 percent; other/none:
3 percent; undecided: 12 percent.

C) If elections were to be held tomorrow, which party leader
would you vote for?
Mwanawasa: 51 percent; Sata: 19 percent; Hichilema: 16
percent; other/none: 3 percent; undecided: 11 percent.


8. (U) The Pangolin poll also provided provincial breakdowns.
President Mwanawasa had clear majorities in five provinces:
Western (81 percent); Northern (66 percent); Central (64
percent); Northwestern (56 percent); and Eastern (44
percent). The President's support in Lusaka (36 percent),
Copperbelt (41 percent) and Luapula (40 percent) Provinces
represents a slim lead over the PF's Michael Sata, who
garnered 32 percent in Lusaka, 31 percent in Copperbelt,
and30 percent in Luapula Provinces. The UDA candidate
Hakainde Hichilema had the greatest support in the Southern
Province (45 percent, to Mwanawasa's 36 percent) and also had
24 percent in Northwestern Province, 19 percent in Eastern,
and 15 percent in Copperbelt. Undecided respondents
accounted for 24 percent in Luapula, 20 percent in Eastern,
17 percent in Lusaka and 16 percent in Northwestern. The
summary of the poll notes that the overall percentage of
undecided voters fell from 23 percent from the first poll, in
July 2006, to 12 percent in the s
econd poll in August. According to the August poll results,
even if Michael Sata gained the support of all remaining
undecided voters, he would not catch up to President
Mwanawasa.

PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK FOR PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORT


9. (SBU) The poll results are generally consistent with what
we understand to have been the campaign strategies of the
three leading parties, based in most cases on existing ties
and relationships around the country. President Mwanawasa
has focused primarily on appealing to voters in Central
Province--where Mwanawasa's father hails from, and where the
Provincial Minister, Kennedy Shepande, has done extensive
grassroots organizing on the MMD's behalf--and in more
remote, rural parts of the country. The Litunga, the Chief
of the Lozi people in Western Province, is a Mwanawasa
supporter, and members of prominent Lozi families are part of
the ruling MMD government, including Ambassador to
Washington, Inonge Mbikusita-Lewanika. Opposition parties
have not gained much popularity in the Western Province. The
expansion of mining activity and related road-building
projects in North Western Province have resulted in an
economic boom that is credited to Mwanwasa's regime and has
earned him popularity. Due to conne
ctions through his mother and his wife, Mwanawasa enjoys some
support in the Copperbelt as well. Mwanawasa has long
conceded that his party's showing in densely populated urban
areas will not be as strong as in most rural areas.


10. (SBU) The UDA coalition's strongest support base by far
is the Southern Province, home of the United Party for
National Development (UPND),but Hichilema continues to try
to broaden his appeal elsewhere in Zambia. He has been
campaigning actively in Lusaka and the Copperbelt and trying
to woo traditional leaders in the Northern and Northwestern
Provinces. Some political observers note that both Hichilema
and his party are still viewed by many as having strong
tribal linkages, which turns off some prospective voters.
Some pockets of support exist in and around Livingstone for
the former contender for the UPND party presidency, Sakwiba
Sikota, who now heads the United Liberal Party, which is
allied with the Patriotic Front. The United National
Independence Party and Forum for Democracy and Development,
member parties of the UDA coalition, may help deliver more of
the undecided voters in Eastern Province to Hichilema, but
the MMD also enjoys support in Eastern Province, thanks to
some prominent defections such as that of the popular
Rosemary Banda, from Milanzi.


11. (SBU) PF leader Michael Sata's targeted audience has
consistently been unemployed or underemployed urban dwellers
in Lusaka and the Copperbelt. Sata enjoys significant
support in the urban sectors of Lusaka Province, and

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anecdotal evidence reported by Embassy's local staff
underscores this popularity: reportedly, local minibus
conductors are asking prospective passengers if they are for
"the boat" (the symbol of Sata's Patriotic Front) or "the
clock" (the ruling MMD party's symbol)--and only allow PF
supporters on board. One reported remark by a potential Sata
voter was: In the last election we voted for the candidate
with the "right" credentials (Mwanawasa is a lawyer) but what
did that get us? Now we think it may be time for a change,
even to someone not so "right."


12. (SBU) In recent weeks, Sata has expanded his campaigning
to Luapula--where he already enjoys support, thanks to his
close ties with former President Chiluba, who comes from
Luapula, and the support of other senior politicians who
defected from the MMD to the PF earlier in the year (Ref
A)--and to Northern Province, where he poses a more direct
threat to a support base of the MMD. Sata comes from
Northern Province, but so does MMD Vice President Lupando
Mwape. The province's vote may be split between PF and MMD
as a result.


13. (C) The British High Commissioner told us that he
recently encountered Sata during a trip to Luapula Province.
He noted that Sata is maintaining a grueling pace, appearing
at two big rallies every day -- something that Mwanawasa,
still recovering from the effects of an April stroke, cannot
manage. While campaigning in Luapula, Sata promised to drop
corruption charges against native son Chiluba. In Northern
Province, Sata has promised to allow former Director of
Intelligence Xavier Chungu to return to Zambia without fear
of facing corruption charges. It is widely rumored that
Chungu, who hails from Northern Province, provides financial
support to Sata's campaign.

A NEW TWIST-POTENTIAL CASE AGAINST SATA


14. (SBU) Former Minister of Youth, Sports and Child
Development (and MMD national election vice chairman),George
Chulumanda brought a complaint against Michael Sata regarding
claims Sata made in his required financial disclosure
statements when he formally filed as a presidential candidate
in mid-August. Sata claimed assets that included Kwachas 350
million (about $80,000) owed to him by Chulumanda as a result
of a judgment in a defamation case in 2004. ECZ Chairperson
Justice Irene Mambilima told donor representatives on
September 14 that the ECZ carefully checked court records and
determined that the judgment in the defamation case had been
set aside in March 2005, and no money was owed to Sata by
Chulumanda. The case is continuing and is scheduled to go to
trial in 2007. Mambilima commented that if Sata were to be
elected President, and then the case against him proceeded
and he was found guilty, the election results should then be
nullified.


15. (U) As a result of the documented false declaration by
Sata, the ECZ, which lacks authority to take action on the
complaint under the current Electoral Law, referred the case
to the Director of Public Prosecutions for further action.
The DPP has made no comment, nor has the ruling MMD
government, about the referral. PF Secretary General Guy
Scott told the press on September 14 that Michael Sata would
remain the party's presidential candidate and "nobody had the
power to remove him from the ballot." Lawyers representing
the PF reportedly accused the ECZ of exceeding its powers and
threatened possible legal action against the ECZ.


16. (C) Former Chairperson of the Electoral Reform Technical
Committee and respected attorney, Mwangala Zaloumis,
commented to P/E Officers on September 14 that the ERTC had
recommended that the ECZ be given authority to disqualify
candidates who make false declarations, but this
recommendation was not included in the new Electoral Act
passed into law earlier in 2006 (Ref B). She also noted that
if Sata were to win the Presidency, he could not be charged
until after he stepped down from office, as the President
enjoys immunity from prosecution. (Note: The Zambian
constitution provides immunity for acts undertaken by a
President while in office. End note.) Zaloumis and several
thoughtful colleagues from the Energy Regulation Board
expressed concerns to P/E Officers over Sata's winning the
election and said they believed Sata would take measures that
strengthen the power of the executive, and would not be above
imposing martial law to ensure he had "absolute" power.
Other contacts consider Sata to be Zambia's equivalent to
Robert Mugabe, while some think his campaign comments are
just talk, and that he would not be particularly different
from Mwanawasa as a leader-though perhaps somewhat more
overtly corrupt.


17. (C) COMMENT: Although the DPP is theoretically
independent, in the past he has allowed himself to be heavily
influenced by State House. Guy Scott's reported comments

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appear intended to provoke the MMD to make an effort to
disqualify Sata from running. Any action by the DPP on the
Sata case before the election will be perceived to be the
result of State House pressure and will be viewed as a purely
political move, which may cost the MMD support at the polls.
For quite some time, the Embassy has considered the
Presidential race to be the MMD's to lose-though Mwanawasa's
April stroke (Ref C) raised serious questions about his
health and ability to carry on as a candidate. The
President's doctors in the UK and Zambia allowed him to
continue his campaign, and he has maintained a steady pace of
public campaign appearances. Mwanawasa has never been a
captivating speaker and he has also shown himself to be very
thin-skinned when it comes to dealing with critics, Sata
included (Ref D). With ten days remaining before the
election, it is still possible that the President could say
or do something ill-advised that costs him voter support, and
possibly--though a long shot--the election.
PASSEN