Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LUSAKA1183
2006-08-30 05:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lusaka
Cable title:  

Zambia Pre-election Roundup

Tags:  PGOV ZA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0115
RR RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1183/01 2420526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300526Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3097
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001183 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: Zambia Pre-election Roundup

Ref: Lusaka 1101; and previous

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001183

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: Zambia Pre-election Roundup

Ref: Lusaka 1101; and previous


1. (SBU) Summary: In the lead-up to the September 28 general
elections, Zambia's presidential and parliamentary candidates are
working hard to get their messages to voters. Although there is
widespread criticism that the election campaigns are not
issue-based, in campaign speeches and interviews with the media the
three leading presidential candidates (ruling Movement for
Multiparty Democracy's President Levy Mwanawasa, Patriotic Front
president Michael Sata and United Democratic Alliance president
Hakainde Hichilema) have established distinct political platforms.
Mwanawasa promises to continue with the policies of his first term,
emphasizing in his campaign speeches the need for good governance
and economic growth. Sata is running on pledges to lower taxes,
increase employment, and improve conditions for workers. Hichilema
stresses his corporate background and says that he will take a
business approach to development. While conveying generally
positive messages, the candidates have also attacked each other
personally in the media. In addition, the MMD asked the Electoral
Commission of Zambia (ECZ) to disqualify Sata from the campaign,
alleging electoral violations. The ECZ has so far resisted pressure
from the MMD, saying that it will deal with the complaints according
to its own procedures. End summary.

MMD: President Mwanawasa Promises Continued Growth
-------------- --------------


2. (U) Using the campaign slogan "For Growth and Empowerment,"
President Mwanawasa and the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD)
are highlighting the successes of its "New Deal" government over the
last five years, arguing that his administration promoted good
governance by attacking corruption, created jobs by attracting
investment, and improved agricultural production by providing
fertilizer and other support to farmers.


3. (U) The President puts particular emphasis on economic
achievements. He reminds voters that it was his administration that
brought Zambia to the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC)
completion point, allowing the cancellation of more than 90 percent
of the country's USD 7.2 billion debt. The President also
highlights the record copper production of the mines privatized
during his tenure, which, boosted by high copper prices has resulted
in a stronger economy. Other economic bright spots trumpeted by the

MMD include the appreciation of the kwacha, lower costs of living,
and single digit inflation for the first time in nearly thirty
years. The President recently presided over the opening of new
copper mines at Kansanshi, and more recently, Lumwana, in North
Western Province, which he described as "a new Copperbelt."


4. (U) Mwanawasa also promises voters that, during a second term,
his government will continue its program to improve Zambia's
infrastructure, particularly schools, health institutions, and the
road network. He regularly notes that his government has recently
obligated money for these purposes. For instance, in connection
with the opening of Lumwana and Kansanshi Mines, the government
committed to a USD 46 million road project in North Western
Province, which is already underway. In addition, major road
construction projects are underway in Eastern and Northern Province.
In the agricultural sector, Mwanawasa highlights
government-sponsored farming projects in Northern and Western
Provinces where farmers have been offered incentives, including
fertilizers at half the normal retail price, to boost agricultural
production.

PF: Michael Sata Vows to Cut Taxes, Improve Services
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Michael Sata, the 64-year-old leader of the Patriotic Front
(PF),is running a populist campaign, pledging to voters that he
will lower taxes, improve health care, create jobs for Zambians, and
offer pensions for all retirees. Sata's rhetoric resonates with
lower-paid and low-skilled workers, who believe that a Sata
administration will favor labor by increasing salaries and generally
improving conditions of service. Reinforcing this belief, Sata
promises miners on the Copperbelt that they will be exempt from
paying for water and electricity, as was the case during the days of
the government-owned Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM). Sata
tells workers that the mining companies are making huge profits and
should pay for workers' utilities.


6. (SBU) Sata also promises to improve health care and housing. A
former Minister of Health in the Chiluba era, Sata is remembered by
many Zambians for transforming the University Teaching Hospital into
a clean and efficient health provider. Drawing upon his ministerial
experience, Sata pledges to address issues that have plagued the
Ministry of Health, including the provision of quality health
services in hospitals, clinics and other health centers, and the
establishment of attractive and competitive salaries and better
conditions of service for doctors, nurses, and other health staff.
With regard to housing, Sata has pledged to demolish the poor
housing settlements commonly known as "shanty compounds" and replace

LUSAKA 00001183 002 OF 003


them with more dignified communities. It is unclear where Sata
plans to find the money to fund these projects.

Sata on Foreign Investors
--------------


7. (SBU) Sata has recently gained notoriety -- and support from some
quarters -- for his position on foreign investors and entrepreneurs,
arguing that foreign investment should not come at the expense of
forcing local Zambian entrepreneurs out of business. In at least
one campaign speech, Sata reportedly threatened to expel foreigners
who were not contributing to the welfare of Zambians. Sata singled
out for criticism Indian, Lebanese, and Chinese investors, a number
of whom have moved into recently-built markets, which were
originally expected to be occupied by Zambian businesses. Sata has
also exploited the perception of many Zambians that foreign
investors keep their Zambian workers in "slave conditions,"
reinforced by events such as a much-publicized recent incident at a
Chinese-run coal mine in Southern Province where workers were
discovered to be toiling in hazardous conditions without adequate
protective clothing.

MMD Takes on Sata
--------------


8. (SBU) Although President Mwanawasa appears to enjoy more popular
support than Sata, the MMD has nevertheless been steadily attacking
the PF leader on a number of fronts. Most notably, an MMD party
leader demanded that ECZ Chairperson Justice Irene Mambilima
disqualify Sata from the campaign. In an August 22 letter to
Justice Mambilima, former Minister of Sport, Youth, and Child
Development George Chulumanda, who is also a member of the MMD
national campaign committee, argued that Sata should be disqualified
because he falsely claimed in his mandatory financial statement to
the ECZ that Chulumanda owed him 350 million kwacha (USD 87,500),
although the debt is in dispute.


9. (SBU) The MMD has also criticized Sata repeatedly for his
statements regarding foreign investors (see para 7). Following a
complaint from the MMD regarding Sata's threats to expel non-Zambian
investors, ECZ Chairperson Mambilima asked Sata to come to the ECZ
to explain his comments. When Sata appeared at the gates of the ECZ
accompanied by a large group of boisterous supporters, Justice
Mambilima refused to see him. The ECZ has also demonstrated
institutional independence in responding to the MMD complaints,
indicating that it will not be pressured, but will deal with the
issues according to its own procedures.

UDA: Hichilema Takes a Business Approach to Development
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Hakainde
Hichilema continues to emphasize to voters his background as a
corporate leader, arguing that he is uniquely qualified to manage
the Zambian economy. Hichilema is telling voters that by creating
an environment in Zambia that is friendly to business and investors,
his administration will be able to create jobs and generate tax
revenue for the government. Hichilema has also emphasized the
importance of social stability in his campaign messages, preaching
the need to promote inclusiveness, and embrace all regions and
tribal groupings under the "One Zambia, One Nation" national motto
popularized by First President Kenneth Kaunda (who is an unabashed
UDA supporter). The 44-year-old Hichilema's message seems to appeal
to university students, businessmen, and manufacturers, as well as
some farmers, but this is a fairly small segment of the electorate.


Hichilema Questioned
--------------


11. (SBU) Although his message is positive, the politically green
Hichilema has made some missteps that call into question his ability
to run the country. Of particular concern to many is the tribalism
that seems to have enveloped Hichilema's United National Development
Party, and which may have extended to the UDA coalition. After the
UNDP convention that elected Hichilema as president split largely
along tribal lines, Hichilema reinforced the perception of tribalism
within the UDA coalition by presiding over the alliance's selection
of a parliamentary slate dominated by Tongas, the Southern Province
tribal group that forms Hichilima's support base (Reftel).


12. (SBU) In addition to his public commitment to social harmony,
opponents have also questioned Hichilema's integrity as a
businessman. Most notably, former UPND Acting President Sakwiba
Sikota, who formed an alliance with Sata's PF (Reftel) after
dropping out of the UPND, alleged that much of Hichilema's 23
billion kwacha net worth (USD 5.75 million),was gained improperly
as a result of his role in the privatization of Zambian state
assets. Hichilema is known to have participated in negotiating the
sale of assets such as Luanshya Mine, Lima Bank and the
Intercontinental Hotel in Livingstone. Sikota's accusations, even

LUSAKA 00001183 003 OF 003


if unfounded, may strike home with many Zambians who believe that
they were cheated by privatization.

PASSEN