ANGOLA: UNITA OPTIMISTIC ON RESOLVING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000324

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR AO
SUBJECT: ANGOLA: UNITA OPTIMISTIC ON RESOLVING
PARLIAMENTARIAN ISSUE

REF: A. LUANDA 00160

B. LUANDA 00150

Classified By: AMBASSADOR CYNTHIA EFIRD FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) In a March 8, 2006 meeting with Ambassador Efird and
AF/S Director Dan Mozena, UNITA President Isaias Samakuva,
was optimistic that a solution regarding the substitution of
sixteen UNITA National Assembly Deputies had been reached.
Samakuva assured the Ambassador and AF/S Director Mozena that
a number of prominent parliamentarians, including members of
the MPLA, serving on the Constitutional Commission were
rethinking their original positions and would likely support
UNITA's decision to change the composition of its
parliamentary group. A March 8-10 meeting of UNITA's
Political Commission ended in the expulsion of four party
members - three of the sixteen who challenged UNITA's
leadership and Jorge Valentim, the former UNITA Minister of
Tourism, who supported the sixteen in the National Assembly.
UNITA's optimism and internal disciplinary measures are a
positive sign that the debate over the sixteen
parliamentarians is coming to end. However, it is clear that
this controversy has forced UNITA and Samakuva off-message.
Instead of showcasing its ability to manage affairs of state,
UNITA has been forced to focus its attention on party
stability and internal management. End Summary.

An Optimistic Samakuva
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2. (C) Since February 15, 2006, when National Union for the
Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) President Isaias
Samakuva threatened to pull out of the Angolan Government of
Unity and National Reconciliation and the National Assembly,
UNITA officials have visited the Embassy on multiple
occasions to share their thoughts on the situation (Ref A).
In the most recent meeting, UNITA President Samakuva and Vice
President Ernesto Mulato left UNITA's March 8-10 Political
Commission meeting to call on Ambassador Efird, AF/S Director
Dan Mozena, and the Pol/Econ Chief. Samakuva confidently
stated that a solution had had been reached regarding the
sixteen UNITA parliamentarians. Careful not to imply that a
deal had been struck, Samakuva noted that a number of
prominent parliamentarians, including some members of the
MPLA serving on the Constitutional Commission had
reconsidered the legal standing of their original decision
(Ref B). The Constitutional Commission had ruled in favor of
the sixteen deputies during the January 31, 2006 debate in
the National Assembly. He indicated that these officials had
reviewed the position of the Ethics Commission, which had
originally sided with UNITA, and were beginning to "feel
uneasy" about the commission's position. For Samakuva,
change in the Constitutional Commission's stance would break
the impasse and allow UNITA to move forward with its plans to
substitute the sixteen parliamentarians.


3. (C) During the meeting Samakuva foresaw the upcoming
UNITA Political Commission's decisions by dividing the
sixteen deputies into three groups - those that were misled
by others, those that were more "intentional" in their
choices, and those who were the self-proclaimed leaders of
the group. Samakuva noted that the leaders of the sixteen
had high-level support within UNITA and the MPLA, but did not
mention the names of the alleged accomplices. He said that
all of the sixteen were undergoing disciplinary hearings.
However, only the leaders of the group and those that
supported the sixteen in parliament would face strong
disciplinary sanctions from UNITA's Political Commission.
Samakuva also said the key members of MPLA leadership, such
as President of the National Assembly Roberto de Almeida,
were concerned about the ramifications of UNITA's current
position, but didn,t feel comfortable sharing their thoughts
in a public forum.

Four UNITA Members Expelled
--------------


4. (U) On March 10, UNITA's Political Commission announced
the expulsion of Jose Kativa, Malheiro Elavoco, Mwanza wa
Mwanza Simao, and Jorge Valentim from the party. The first
three were the self-proclaimed leaders of the sixteen
National Assembly Deputies. National Assembly Deputy Jorge
Valentim had previously served as the Minister of Tourism,
but recently has been an outspoken critic of UNITA's
policies. His public confrontations with President Samakuva
earned him a short-lived suspension from the party, but his
support to the sixteen deputies caused his expulsion.
Eugenio Manuvakola, former Secretary General of UNITA and
ally of the sixteen, was suspended from all party activities
for a year, but will continue to serve as a UNITA National
Assembly Deputy. Valentim and the three other
parliamentarians have publicly denied UNITA's power to remove

LUANDA 00000324 002 OF 002


them from the party and plan to continue serving as Deputies
in the National Assembly regardless of their support within
UNITA.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Samakuva's comments to the Ambassador and Mozena are a
dramatic change from his February 15 position. By staying
out of the public spotlight, it appears that Samakuva allowed
the MPLA enough political space to work out a feasible
solution without appearing to back down. While Samakuva's
optimism could be overstated, especially since it seems to be
based on sources within the MPLA, it is unlikely that the
MPLA's leadership is interested in losing its democratic
credentials by seeming to bring down the main opposition
party. Nonetheless, damage to UNITA has been done. While the
expulsion of the four leaders shows a higher degree of
internal unity, UNITA will now enter the upcoming electoral
cycle off-message. Instead of discussing its ability to
manage the affairs of state, they will be forced to answer
repeated questions on internal stability and Samakuva's
leadership. End Comment.


6. (C) Biographical Note: This was Mozena,s first meeting
with Samakuva. Mozena found the UNITA leader professorial,
almost pedantic, in responding to questions during the
lengthy meeting. Samakuva, who was immaculately attiredin a
suit that obviously had not been tailored in Africa, was
quite articulatein English. Nonetheless, Samakuva lacked the
fire and inspiration that were the trademarks of Savimbi,
whom Mozena had heard speak in Washington nearly 15 years
ago. Samakuva did not come across as a natural leader
inspiring popular support.


7. AF/S Director Mozena has cleared this cable.

EFIRD