INITIAL UK REACTION TO NIYAZOV'S DEATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 008441

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016
TAGS: EPET CASC PHUM PREL TX UK
SUBJECT: INITIAL UK REACTION TO NIYAZOV'S DEATH


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David T. Johnson for reasons 1.4
(B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office intends
a "correct, but very restrained" response to the death of
Turkmen President Niyazov: No senior FCO official will
travel to Sunday's planned funeral; the UK will likely be
represented by the UK Ambassador and a short condolence
message will be officially conveyed to Niyazov's family.
There is no plan to issue an official FCO statement on the
death; if asked, the FCO spokesperson will express HMG's
condolences to the family and Turkmen people. Although aware
Niyazov was not in the best of health, the FCO was surprised
at his sudden death. The FCO is reading into the appointment
of Deputy Prime Minister Berdymukhamedov as head the Funeral
Commission a strong indication he will succeed as President.
The UK Embassy in Ashgabat is reporting the situation is
calm. There is no plan to change the UK travel guidance for
Turkmenistan other than to note Niyazov's death. End Summary.

Official Condolences: Short and Simple
--------------

2. (C) Mike Walsh, head of the FCO's Central Asia office,
told us early morning December 21, that, although final
decisions on reaction to Niyazov's death were still pending
further coordination with EU partners, the FCO's initial
response will be correct, but "very restrained." No senior
FCO official will attend Sunday's planned funeral; the FCO's
preference would be for EU Special Envoy Morel to attend on
behalf of EU members ("that is what these Special Envoys are
for really"); the UK would be represented most likely by its
Ambassador in Ashgabat. Walsh added, "no doubt Gazprom
officials will make sure they are first in the receiving line
at the funeral."


3. (C) Walsh's office had given thought to the UK expression
of condolence -- it will be "short and sweet," and certainly
"not contain any laudatory comments about his contributions"
to Turkmenistan. The condolence message will be addressed to
Niyazov's immediate family and the Turkmen people. There is
currently no plan for the FCO to issue an official statement
on the death; if asked, the FCO media spokesperson will make
reference to the expression of condolence. The FCO is
working to coordinate this aspect of its response with the EU
in Brussels.

Berdymukhamedov Likely Successor
--------------

4. (C) Walsh acknowledged that London was still not sure to
whom in the Turkmen Government the UK Ambassador would convey
official UK condolences but likely to Deputy Prime Minister
Berdymukhamedov, as head of the Funeral Commission, or to the
Foreign Minister. The FCO is reading into Berdymukhamedov's
appointment to head the Commission a strong signal he will
succeed as President, although Walsh said it was still not
certain Berdymukhamedov would take over or that, if he did,
he would remain long in the post. Given the relative
suddenness of Niyazov's death, Walsh personally doubted other
possible challengers had the opportunity to prepare the
groundwork for an assumption of power.


5. (C) Although the FCO was aware Niyazov was not in the best
of health, his sudden death from what appears to be a heart
attack was still unexpected. Walsh said that EU Special
Envoy Morel, who met with Niyazov on December 18, had
reported back that the President had been "lively" during
their meeting. Walsh said that the FCO saw no reason to
suspect at this time, however, that the death was other than
from natural causes.

Situation on the Ground Calm
--------------

6. (C) The UK Embassy in Ashgabat reported over night that
the situation was calm in Turkmenistan. The FCO does not
intend to change the wording of its current travel guidance
for Turkmenistan, other than to include factual information
on Niyazov's death and plans for the state funeral.

"Interesting Times" Ahead
--------------

7. (C) As for the future of a post-Niyazov Turkmenistan,
Walsh -- who has been on the Central Asia account at FCO for
over three years -- said it was still a "watch this space"
situation. Walsh noted that, as he had told visiting SCA
PDAS Steve Mann earlier this month, it was difficult to
predict what would follow after a Niyazov departure. There
is certainly an opportunity to press a new government on
shared U.S./UK concerns about human rights and democracy, but
pressing on these issues will take "some finesse."
"Interesting time are ahead," he concluded.


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