UK AGREES ON NEED FOR VIGOROUS CRITIQUE OF IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 008212

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL IR EU UK
SUBJECT: UK AGREES ON NEED FOR VIGOROUS CRITIQUE OF IRAN
ELECTIONS

REF: A. A) STATE 194458


B. B) FCO REPORTS FAXED TO NEA/FO 12-4-06

Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office
welcomes USG plans to publicly critique the undemocratic,
unaccountable nature of Iran's Assembly of Experts election
and the UK will be making a similar public statement, perhaps
as early as December 5. The FCO noted, however, that due to
continuing debates within both the UK Government and the EU,
UK public statements before Iran's (December 15) elections
may not be as frequent as U.S. statements and the EU is
unlikely to issue any statement until after the elections.
End Summary.

FCO Agrees On Need to Watch the Process
--------------

2. (C) Poloff called on FCO Iran Team Leader Ben Fender to
deliver ref (a) demarche on December 1. Fender agreed it was
crucial to let Iran's regime know the December 15 election,
and the vetting/disqualification process preceding it, are
being closely watched. Fender also fully agreed the Iranian
electoral process as now structured lacks any democratic
accountability, and should be publicly criticized on that
basis. Fender noted that several pre-election trends justify
an aggressive public approach toward Tehran, specifically the
tendency of disqualification rates for candidates in
municipal elections to be higher in rural areas, where there
is little opportunity for outside scrutiny, than in larger
urban areas such as Tehran, where foreign monitors are
clustered and more likely to object. Fender agreed that no
additional amount of last minute transparency could redeem
Iran's electoral process as it is now constructed.

But Internal Debates Dilute EU approach
--------------

3. (C) Fender explained, however, that there is still
ongoing debate within HMG and, even more strongly, within the
EU on whether to issue public criticism of Iran's elections,
or, instead, take a more low-key approach, and thereby avoid
turning reform-minded candidates into targets of regime
retaliation. Because internal EU/UK debates are unresolved,
Fender said there will probably be no EU statement before the
elections, although there may be one afterwards. UK
officials will likely make public statements consistent with
ref a, perhaps as soon as December 5 during a scheduled
debate on the Middle East in the House of Lords.

FCO Shares Its Election Analysis
--------------

4. (C) Fender also commented that the December 15 elections,
both national and municipal, are a key test of strength
within the Iranian government between "hard-liners,"
associated with Ahmedinejad and Mesbah-Yazdi, and what FCO
analysts view as a loose three-part alliance of "reformists"
associated with former President Khatami,
"pragmatists-moderates" linked to Expediency Council Chairman
Rafsanjani, and "pragmatic conservatives" led by Tehran's
mayor, Mohammad-Bager Qalibaf (see ref B). FCO analysts
note that in local elections hard-liners are fragmented, with
multiple groups publishing separate candidate lists and five
rival groups all claiming to represent Ahmadinejad.


5. (C) According to Fender, FCO analysts argue that Assembly
of Experts Speaker Meshkini, to prevent a divisive melee
between Mesbah-Yazdi and Rafsanjani, has chosen to stand for
re-election despite his poor health; UK Embassy Tehran
predicts Meshkini is likely to be re-elected, while FCO
analysts expect, generally, a hard-liner victory in the
Assembly of Experts. The FCO also predicts Rafsanjani's
relationship with Supreme Leader Khomeini will end unless
Rafsanjani is able to hold on both his seat and his
deputy-chairmanship of the Assembly.


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