Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LONDON8066
2006-11-22 15:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy London
Cable title:  

(C) SOMALIA: MUSEVENI TELLS A/S FRAZER UGANDAN

Tags:  PREL MARR PTER UNSC SO UG ET 
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VZCZCXRO6641
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHLO #8066/01 3261517
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 221517Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0582
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE IMMEDIATE 0001
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA IMMEDIATE 0084
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA IMMEDIATE 0299
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM IMMEDIATE 0121
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0849
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 008066 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/E, S/CT
KINSHASA PLEASE PASS BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PTER UNSC SO UG ET
SUBJECT: (C) SOMALIA: MUSEVENI TELLS A/S FRAZER UGANDAN
TROOPS CAN GUARD BAIDOA

Classified By: PolCouns Richard Mills; reason 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 008066

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/E, S/CT
KINSHASA PLEASE PASS BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PREL MARR PTER UNSC SO UG ET
SUBJECT: (C) SOMALIA: MUSEVENI TELLS A/S FRAZER UGANDAN
TROOPS CAN GUARD BAIDOA

Classified By: PolCouns Richard Mills; reason 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Uganda's President Museveni told AF A/S
Frazer November 21 that he is ready to send a battalion to
Baidoa to protect the Somali Transitional Federal
Institutions, provided there is a clear UNSCR, adequate
funding and a tacit agreement with Ethiopia. He was
expecting Ethiopia to take action to force the Somali Union
of Islamic Courts to negotiate in earnest. On Sudan, Dr.
Frazer asked Uganda to help obtain a strong African Union
stance in favor of a joint UN-AU force in Darfur and eastern
Chad. On the LRA, Museveni said the negotiations should be
time-limited, and effective action should be taken "by MONUC
or somebody" if the talks do not reach fruition. At his
suggestion, Dr. Frazer promised to explore the possibility of
a U.S.-Africa Summit, perhaps the next time President Bush
visits Africa. END SUMMARY.

(U) SOMALIA
--------------


2. (C) AF A/S Jendayi Frazer met with Uganda's President
Yoweri Museveni in London November 21. At the start of the
meeting, Museveni said his long-standing offer of a battalion
of troops to support the Somali Transitional Federal
Institutions (TFIs) has been overtaken by events in Somalia.
He had spoken with Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi,
who was going to take action to force the Union of Islamic
Courts (UIC) to negotiate with the TFIs. After an interim
period, elections would be held; there was a risk the
Islamists would win, but even that would be better than
letting them take over all Somalia by force. Uganda's
position was to support this Ethiopian initiative.


3. (C) Museveni had met November 20 with UK Secretary of
State for International Development Hilary Benn, whose view
was that opposing the UIC unites it, and that it is vital to
keep the immediate neighbors (principally Ethiopia) out, for
fear of provoking all-out civil war in Somalia. Museveni

disagreed, saying experience shows it is necessary to
confront belligerent forces, and only where neighbors have
been decisively engaged have African conflicts been resolved
with lasting stability. He took A/S Frazer's point about the
current situation: the UIC is expanding already without
provocation, Ethiopian troops are already in Baidoa, and if
not for Ethiopia's intervention the UIC would have
overwhelmed the TFIs by now. Dr. Frazer noted that the USG
had cautioned Meles not to go into Somalia, but the UIC
deliberately drew the Ethiopians in by threatening Baidoa.


4. (C) A/S Frazer succeeded in obtaining Museveni's
agreement to send Ugandan troops to protect the TFIs in
Baidoa provided there is a clear UNSC Resolution, adequate
funding and a tacit understanding with Ethiopia. He
expressed confidence that one battalion of Ugandan soldiers
with tanks would be sufficient to accomplish that defensive
mission, and said the force is "ready and waiting." For any
more ambitious mission, though, it would be necessary to rely
on Ethiopia or trained Somali forces. Dr. Frazer welcomed
the President's position, stressing the urgent need to
protect the TFIs and strengthen their capacity (notably
through the police training Kenya is providing, to be
augmented by provision of equipment). She told the President
that we are close to concluding negotiations with the UK,
Tanzania, Ghana and Congo on a draft UNSCR that will exempt
the proposed IGASOM training and protection mission from the
Somalia arms embargo. The last remaining issue is the UK's
insistence that Operative Paragraph 2 explicitly preclude
deployment of troops from frontline states; the USG wants to
maintain flexibility by moving this language to the Preamble
and basing it on the statement by the sub-regional
organization IGAD about keeping frontline states out. Dr.
Frazer made clear that the Secretary wants to support IGAD's
lead on Somalia.


5. (C) A/S Frazer noted the sophistication of the UIC and
the effectiveness of its approach: infiltrating trainers and
fighters into an area, reaching out to Islamic leaders, then
triggering "spontaneous" uprisings inviting the UIC to come
in and take over. The UIC's agenda is to establish a radical
Islamic state. Many of its people have been trained in
Afghanistan. There is an Al-Qaeda cell in Mogadishu, and
significant terrorist figures are appearing there with

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increasing openness, even inviting their families to come
join them. The UIC is making inroads in Puntland and
Somaliland.


6. (C) Dr. Frazer said Somaliland should be used as a
beachhead against the UIC, and to that end it would help if
the African Union (AU) would consider recognizing Somaliland
as an independent state. Museveni retorted that that would
strengthen the Islamists, unite Somalis against the
"traitors" and make Ethiopia look bad. He urged the A/S to
talk to Meles about Somalia, and she said she would.

(U) SUDAN
--------------


7. (C) On Sudan, Museveni said Khartoum needs to be opposed
resolutely in Darfur, and Chad needs to be strengthened. A/S
Frazer said we need a UN force in eastern Chad to create a
humanitarian space, protect the refugee camps from rebels,
and have a base from which it would be possible to take
action in Darfur if the situation escalated. She noted that
the UN has talked with India about providing a brigade, and
Tanzania is willing to contribute troops under a UN mandate.
Most of the troops would be African, bolstered by other
Muslim and Asian contingents. Some Europeans would be
willing to help with logistics and air mobility. The USG
does not want to deploy American troops on the ground but
could provide enablers. She emphasized the need to hold onto
UNSCR 1706, the only legal basis outside the AU for
international forces in Sudan; Sudan's President Bashir is
trying to eliminate 1706 as well as Resolutions 1591 and

1593. The AU needs to take a strong position. Museveni took
the point, noting that Uganda is a member of the AU's Peace
and Security Council (PSC),which will meet soon. Dr. Frazer
asked Uganda to push for three points in the PSC: joint
UN-AU Special Representative; African Force Commander; bring
the mission under the UN so that UN assessments pay for it.


8. (C) When A/S Frazer remarked that if Khartoum does not
come around, we will have to look at more robust options,
Museveni recalled that Uganda was one of only four African
countries that supported the USG on Iraq, thinking Saddam
Hussein had participated in 9/11. As he had told the
Secretary, the USG made mistakes in Iraq, and the difficult

SIPDIS
situation there has emboldened the likes of Bashir and the
UIC: they no longer fear the USG as they did earlier.

(U) LRA
--------------


9. (C) Dr. Frazer asked how we can support Uganda vis-a-vis
the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). Museveni said the talks
between his government and the LRA should be time-bound; if
they do not achieve a result, "we want action by MONUC or
somebody." We are entering the dry season, a good time to
act. He said he would talk to DRC President Kabila to urge
pressure on the LRA if they do not come out of the bush. In
that case, if LRA leaders Kony or Otti were caught, they
could be turned over to the International Criminal Court.
Dr. Frazer told him the USG is raising Kony's status on the
terrorist list; Museveni appreciated that and asked the USG
to continue applying pressure on the LRA.

(U) OTHER MATTERS
--------------


10. (C) Museveni listened to Dr. Frazer's concern about
Eritrean President Isaias's role as a spoiler whose goal is
to bring down Meles, and promised to follow up with Isaias,
with whom he had spoken at the Sino-African Summit. Mention
of that summit prompted Museveni to suggest a U.S.-Africa
Summit. Dr. Frazer agreed that this was overdue, and
promised to follow up. She noted that AGOA calls for a
heads-of-state meeting; a summit's scope would have to be
broadened beyond trade; the best time for a summit might be
during President Bush's next trip to Africa.


11. (U) A/S Frazer has cleared this message.

Visit London's Classified Website:
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