SLOVENIA: FM RUPEL ON KOSOVO, SERBIA AND CROATIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000824

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
TAGS: PREL SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: FM RUPEL ON KOSOVO, SERBIA AND CROATIA'S
EU ASPIRATIONS


Classified By: COM Thomas b. Robertson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. C) Foreign Minister Rupel reiterated to COM Slovenia's
support for moving forward in a timely manner on Kosovo
status. COM pressed on the need for unity on this point
since Rupel had speculated to a gather of the diplomatic
community in Ljubljana the day before that certain
"conditional formulas" might be proposed that take into
account the interests of both Serbia and Kosovo. Rupel had
no clear prediction on the outcome of Serbian elections, and
he suggested that Croatia would have to bend to the will of
the EU rather than pursue its current tack of getting the EU
to buy onto its politically inspired act involving the
fisheries and ecological zone in the Adriatic. End Summary.


2. (U) In a December 20 meeting scheduled the evening
before, with FM Dimitrij Rupel, COM discussed the impending
decision on Kosovo independence, bilateral relations with
Croatia and Slovenian views of upcoming Serbian elections.

--------------
Stay Together on Kosovo
--------------


3. (C) Using guidelines provided by EUR/SCE, COM delivered a
clear message on the imperative that the EU be in lock-step
in support of Ahtisaari and his proposed timetable on Kosovo
status. Responding to Rupel,s concern that the Russians
might veto a UNSC vote on recognizing an independent Kosovo,
COM responded that if Russia thought it could divide the EU
internally, as well as from the U.S., it would exploit that
opportunity. However, if presented with a united front, and
Slovenia should be vocal about this with its colleagues,
Russia would be less likely to make trouble. Rupel agreed
that there is no room for compromise, and everyone knows
this. He related that Serbian FM Vuk Draskovic told him there
would be &after-shocks8 for about six months and then the
majority would move forward. Democratic forces in Serbia
know they lost Kosovo in 1999.

--------------
Serbia Elections Hard to Predict
--------------


4. (C) Rupel,s reply to a question about the outcome of
January elections in Serbia was &it depends on who you talk
to8 and that he had heard in Tirana recently from the
Serbian Minister of Economy that regardless, &Kostunica
would be in the government.8 (Apparently the Serbs
subsequently backed away from this comment, due Rupel
surmised, to U.S. pressure.) Rupel frankly explained that
Slovenia is working both sides (Kosovo and Serbia) to ensure
continuity in its good relations, and currently, he admitted,
Slovenia is giving a little more attention to Serbia. He was
very glad that Serbia had been given PfP as a signal that
there is a future in the West for Serbia. Rupel also waxed
on the struggle between progressive, pro-European forces and
the retrograde nationalists, predicting the progressives
would win. He added that it would be the responsibility of
the international community to ensure that if Tadic receives
more votes (as Rupel believes he will),Kostunica must be
shown the advantages and benefits of cooperating with Tadic
and avoid the temptation of forming a competing coalition
with less acceptable political partners. Rupel thought the
Radicals might win 30%, or more, of the vote, consistent with
the latest polling he had seen. He hoped, however, they would
remain too distasteful for any coalition and therefore not
find purchase in any new government. Rupel is planning to
visit Serbia in January, before elections. He said there was
agreement at the GAERC that several EU FMs would go, though
he thought they would not &march on Belgrade8 together,
however, they might meet up while there. Rupel,s final
comment on this was that he would &really like to help (his)
friend Vuk.8

--------------
Croatia Must Bend to the EU
--------------


5. (C) COM and Rupel discussed Croatia in light of the
Government of Croatia,s most recent moves on maritime

LJUBLJANA 00000824 002 OF 002


issues. Rupel said Slovenia had almost no interest in this
latest dust-up except on a political level, since Slovenia
has few ships in its fishing fleet. He commented that if
Croatia truly wants membership, it must embrace EU values,
and not expect the EU will embrace Croatian standards that
have been developed primarily to draw domestic support for
the ruling party. When asked if he didn't think Croatian PM
Sanader understood this, Rupel replied yes, though he does
not demonstrate it. As with Serbia, Rupel sees a struggle in
Croatia between progressive and retrograde forces. In fact,
he sees this struggle occurring across eastern Europe,
including in Slovenia. There is a segment of the population
and politicians who think that the omnipotent state, which
provides all services and benefits to the people, can be
resurrected. Rupel added that Italian FM D'Alema would visit
Slovenia in early January, and he was certain working with
Croatia would be among the topics of discussion.
ROBERTSON