AMBASSADOR GREG SCHULTE TALKS NONPROLIFERATION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LJUBLJANA 000675

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

EUR/NCE FOR BGUSS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2016
TAGS: PARM SI
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR GREG SCHULTE TALKS NONPROLIFERATION IN
SLOVENIA



1. (C) Summary. During a public diplomacy visit to Slovenia
October 16 US Ambassador to UNVIE Greg Schulte met with
leaders and policymakers from government, media, and academia
to talk about nuclear nonproliferation, US policy towards
Iran and North Korea, and Slovenia's role as the Chairman of
the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Board of
Governors. All interlocutors, from the Foreign Minister to
Slovenian academics, were eager to learn more about the
development of nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea, hear
the US perspective on Iran, North Korea, and the fate of the
nuclear nonproliferation regime in general, and to learn
about US government strategy going forward. Schulte's visit
attracted excellent coverage in the Slovenian media and
succeeded in reminding the host government, key Slovenian
opinion makers, and the general public where the USG stands
on nuclear nonproliferation and what we see as the best road
ahead. End Summary.


2. (C) US Ambassador to UNVIE Greg Schulte visited Slovenia
October 16 to meet with leaders and policymakers from
government, media, and academia to talk about nuclear
nonproliferation, US policy towards Iran and North Korea, and
Slovenia's role as the Chairman of the IAEA Board of
Governors (BoG). In the meetings Schulte outlined US
priorities in the nuclear nonproliferation area including,
(1) the likely November IAEA Board of Governors discussion
over the suspension of technical cooperation with Iran, (2)
the desire to give countries reliable access to nuclear fuel
through a fuel bank, and (3) interest in jump-starting the
lagging and politicized IAEA committee in charge of nuclear
safeguards and technology. He talked about the necessity of
Slovenia taking a proactive approach to chairing the BoG, and
encouraged the GoS to use its seat on the BoG (apart from its
role as Chair of the BoG) for advocacy instead of slipping
into a less effective, neutral party role. He also commented
on the current state of play in the six party talks regarding
North Korea, and the P5 1 talks with Iran.

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Senior Level Discourse on Slovenia and the IAEA
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3. (C) Schulte and DCM Maryruth Coleman met with a senior
level group at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that included
Director General for Policy Planning and Multilateral
Relations Anita Pipan, Head of the Security Policy Division
Stanislav Vidovic, Director of the Slovenian Nuclear Safety
Administration Andrej Stritar, and Security Policy Department
staffer Bostjan Jerman. Pipan and Schulte largely agreed on
priorities for this year at IAEA, with Pipan adding that
smooth operation of the board and resolving budget problems
were also important. She responded favorably to Schulte's
concerns about having strong leadership at the BoG, saying
that although the GoS knows the position requires consensus
building and negotiations, Slovenia is a responsible member
of the international community and will continue to pursue
Slovenian interests and work to avoid a "vague" chairmanship.
Pipan noted that it will be difficult to separate the
technical from the political this year at the IAEA, with
technical expert Stritar echoing those comments.


4. (C) In reference to the ongoing negotiations with Iran,
Pipan agreed with Schulte's assessment that the P5 1
incentive package was very generous. She commented that
though the doors should remain open for negotiations, time is
clearly running out for Iran, and it is time for other types
of pressure to be introduced. That said, Pipan responded to
Schulte's question about a "strong statement" out of the next
EU Foreign Ministers meeting with the discouraging news that
he shouldn't expect anything new.


5. (C) In reference to the idea of a nuclear fuel bank,
Stritar was unsure of what the added value would be,
mentioning that Slovenia currently acquires nuclear fuel
through a commercial arrangement with an American company and
that he felt the market was working. Stritar did, however,
express interest if the fuel bank used a "leasing" concept
whereby consumer countries could lease the fuel, use it, and
then return the spent fuel. He said this would be very
interesting for countries like Slovenia, which does not have
a permanent repository for spent nuclear fuel and does not
think that it is financially viable to create one. COMMENT.
Stritar's comments regarding the lack of Slovenian interest
in a fuel bank were contrary to what PolMilOff has heard
previously from Security Policy Department staffer Bostjan
Jerman. Jerman has said in the past that while Slovenia is
satisfied with its current situation, the GoS would be
interested in the security that a nuclear fuel bank would
provide in securing future access to nuclear fuel. END

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COMMENT.

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Bringing the GoS Up to Speed on Nuclear Issues
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6. (C) Schulte, Ambassador Robertson, and DCM Coleman also
met with Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel. Rupel
echoed Pipan's comments about Slovenia's role as IAEA BoG
Chairman saying that Slovenia does not have any tasks to add,
but will focus on closing out pending issues, and adding that
the organizational problems at IAEA somewhat resemble those
that Slovenia faced during its Chairmanship-in-Office of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in 2005.
Rupel said he hoped the stint at IAEA would be a "good
opportunity for our diplomats to assert themselves," was
confident that Slovenian and US positions would be very
close, and said that the GoS will do its utmost to push
progress forward. Rupel frequently questioned Ambassador
Schulte throughout the 45 minute meeting and was curious
about the details of the nuclear fuel bank concept and the US
assessment of Iran's progress towards nuclear weapons, saying
that IAEA Director General Mohamed El Baradei had said that
the Iranian nuclear weapons program was "10 years off."


7. (C) Rupel commented on his recent participation in a
conference of Mediterranean countries in Greece, saying that
the countries would like to have more engagement on Iran but
did not know how, and that it would be positive for the
European Union to put forward its opinion in a "more forceful
way." He said his personal opinion was that "Iran really
wants nuclear weapons" and that ultimately "we won't be
successful in stopping them." He concluded with a relatively
grim commentary on the fact that "Europe still does not have
a (coherent) post-9/11 foreign policy as the Americans do"
and that "Europe is getting weak." However, he seemed to
agree that Slovenia should get smart and become more active
on these issues because problems "won't disappear" before
Slovenia's 2008 stint in the EU Presidency.


8. (C) Schulte and DCM Coleman met with International Affairs
Advisor to the Prime Minister Andrej Rahten as well, with
comments from both sides echoing those from the earlier MFA
meetings, and Rahten using the meeting to get Schulte's
insider overview of the current situation at IAEA and with
the Iranian and North Korean efforts. As in his previous
meetings, Schulte praised Slovenian IAEA Ambassador Ernst
Petric as an excellent interlocutor and said the US will be
working closely with him to obtain a Board decision to
suspend IAEA technical cooperation with Iran. Rahten
emphasized that Iran must not be able to use multilateral
procedures to postpone decisions and that maintaining
multilateral consensus is the best option for success.

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Slovenian Civil Society Eager to Discuss Nuclear
Non-Proliferation
-------------- ---


9. (C) Schulte's public diplomacy outreach included meeting
with groups of Slovenian non-governmental leaders at a
roundtable hosted by the Institute for Strategic Studies and
a dinner with four of Slovenia's leading academics. The
questions and comments were consistent with those raised in
government meetings, with the focus being on the current
state of relations between the US and both North Korea and
Iran, assessments of those countries' progress toward
acquiring nuclear weapons, and what likely next-steps are for
the US in dealing with both countries. Roundtable
participants also inquired about Chinese and Russian
participation in negotiations with Iran and North Korea, the
future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the usefulness of
sanctions, and current US policy towards India and Pakistan.
The academics (one of whom has traveled several times to
Iran) largely agreed with Schulte's points, particularly
regarding the need for multilateral cooperation, though some
suggested that it would be helpful for the US to engage
bilaterally with Iran and North Korea. They also thought it
was important that the Iran situation be viewed in the
context of Iraq and the stalled Middle East peace talks, and
to consider that a hard US line toward Iran would turn many
young Iranians off - youth who currently have a positive
image of the US.

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Taking on the Slovenian Press...and Challenging Assumptions
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10. (C) Schulte sat for interviews with leading national

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newspaper Dnevnik (170,000 readers) and state television
station TV Slovenia. The question and answer interview in
Dnevnik allowed Schulte to reject perceptions that the US is
undermining the NPT by treating North Korea and Iran
differently than India, Pakistan, and Israel. The subtitle
of the article, "We want to Strengthen the Non-Proliferation
Regime," countered the argument the journalist had made the
previous week that "another nail had been driven into the
coffin of the half-dead agreement." Schulte also pointed to
the decision of Slovenia to pursue its civilian nuclear
energy program by acquiring nuclear fuel on the world market
as a model that others should follow. He emphasized
President Bush's and Mohamed El Baradei's reference to a
loophole in the NPT and described the potential for abuse
under the NPT's right to pursue a nuclear production cycle
for peaceful purposes. TV Slovenia briefly covered his
meeting with Foreign Minister Rupel during its main newscast
on October 16 and broadcast the interview during its late
evening "60 Minutes"-style news show "Odmevi" on October 17.
The "Odmevi" interview carried a similar theme on the
importance of strengthening the NPT, working together with
our allies on sanctions, and explaining the different nature
of the danger coming from the Iranian and North Korean
regimes as compared to other non-signatories of the NPT.


11. (C) Comment. Though small, Slovenia continues to pursue
ways to engage and contribute to the international community,
particularly through organizational leadership roles like
this year's efforts in Chairing the IAEA Board of Governors.
The great interest we saw at the MFA, particularly from
Foreign Minister Rupel, to better understand the Iranian and
North Korean nuclear issues indicates that Slovenia has its
eyes on an international role that is larger than its small
size might naturally dictate. All interlocutors, from the
Foreign Minister to Slovenian academics, were eager to learn
more about the development of nuclear programs in Iran and
North Korea, hear the US perspective of these events and the
nuclear nonproliferation regime in general, and to hear about
the US government strategy going forward. Taking time to
engage the GoS on these issues today will go great lengths to
building cooperation when Slovenia holds the EU Presidency in

2008. Schulte's visit successfully reminded the host
government where the US stands on nuclear nonproliferation,
what we see as the path forward, and that we want Slovenia to
be part of the solution. End Comment.

Embassy Ljubljana thanks Ambassador Schulte for making the
visit.
ROBERTSON