LOCAL ELECTIONS - MAYORS RUNNING THE SHOW

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SIPDIS

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SI
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS - MAYORS RUNNING THE SHOW

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED PROTECT ACCORDINGLY


1. (U) Summary: With mid-term local elections just days away,
Slovenia is a sea of posters and placards extolling the virtues of
candidates and parties in the race for control of municipalities
across the country. The most interesting race is to be mayor of
Slovenia's capital, Ljubljana. Sixteen candidates are in the run,
and while it is almost certain the incumbent and only female
candidate, Danica Simcic of the Social Democrats (SD) will not win,
none of her potential successors is seen as a first round shoe-in.
Several other races including Slovenia's second city, Maribor, and
Nova Gorica, the center of Slovenia's gaming industry, bear
watching. Many view these elections as a mid-term referendum on PM
Janez Jansa's work since he took power in late 2004. Jansa's
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) and its coalition partners have
generally enjoyed more support outside of Ljubljana than the former
ruling Liberal Democracy Party (LDS),and they expect to perform
well. Other parties (perhaps as an attempt at face-saving) have
said they will count as success an increase of their numbers on
municipal councils even if they cannot capture the mayoral seats.
End Summary.

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Ljubljana the Race to Watch
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2. (SBU) The most watched mayoral race is in Ljubljana. In
addition to the prestige of being the capital city, Ljubljana will
also be the center of protocol attention during Slovenia's term as
EU president in early 2008; it has a budget larger than most
government ministries; and after two terms with women representing
left-of-center parties in the lead, this year's election will go to
a man, and most likely to one running as an independent. The two
front runners are former Mercator (retail chain) CEO Zoran Jankovic
and current president of Bank Austria Creditanstalt (Slovenia) and
form Slovenian Central Bank President, France Arhar. Both
candidates are running as independents, though Jankovic has deep
roots with the left. Former President Kucan ZLSD/SD has publicly
given Jankovic his support and several LDS members of the city
council are running on Jankovic's ticket. Arhar has the support of
the right-of-center ruling coalition members Slovene Democratic
Party (SDS),Slovene People's Party (SLS),and New Slovenia (NSi).
Jankovic, a charismatic man with a reputation for getting things
done, is generally favored to win, despite late attempts to dredge
up old scandals in the press and discredit him as corrupt. Arhar, a
capable technocrat, lacks the personality and rhetorical skills
needed to generate an enthusiastic following. No one considers the
incumbent, Danica Simcic (SD),a serious contender. Borut Pahor,
President of SD said as much in a meeting with COM and Polecon Chief
in August.

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Local Independents
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3. (SBU) It is not unusual in Slovenia for candidates to run, and
win on, independent tickets at the local level where politics tends
to be more pragmatic and personality based. It is also not uncommon
for coalitions to form at the local level that do not mirror
national level coalitions. That said, these local elections are
seen by many as a sort of referendum on the first two years of the
Jansa center-right coalition. At a recent LDS rally in Slovenia's
second city, Maribor, members of the LDS leadership said that they
thought they might do somewhat better than previously believed
because of the "failures" of the SDS. When pressed, this politician
could not clearly elucidate those failures, leaving Polecon Chief
and Pol Asst with the impression that the LDS continues to founder
internally and has not pulled itself together sufficiently to get
beyond a platform that is simply against the SDS. The LDS is also
being challenged for leadership of the left by Borut Pahor's Social
Democrats.

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Lack of Leadership on the Left
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4. (SBU) It is no secret that Pahor has designs on the Presidency
which will be contested in 2007. In a lunch with Ambassador and
Polecon chief, Pahor said, almost wistfully, that if his party did
well in these local elections, he would likely be pressured to step
back from his presidential bid in order to help the party gain more
ground in 2008 national elections. While Pahor has worked
methodically to shed the strong Communist associations of his party,
a recent SD rally in Ljubljana drew a large crowd made up mostly of
pensioners and others with fond memories of the years under Tito.

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Nonetheless, Pahor has great personal charm and appeal, and he
consistently ranks at the top of popularity polls. His face is on as
many billboards as the actual SD mayoral candidate's in Ljubljana.
If Pahor can continue the incremental move towards the center for
his party, and if the LDS continues to flounder under the weak
leadership of Jelko Kacin, the Social Democrats could take over the
leadership of the left by 2008. However, it is unlikely that Pahor
would become Prime Minister, which he knows, and which would likely
factor into his decision to seek the Presidency.


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Comment
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5.(SBU) If these elections are considered a referendum on the first
two years of Jansa and his coalition (SDS, SLS, NSi),we are likely
to see a positive vote early next week. Jansa's SDS is expected to
pick up a few percentage points over its 2002 wins including Maribor
and possibly, the city of Nova Gorica, where US casino company
Harrah's is hoping to build its first European resort. The Slovene
People's Party (SLS) while not a strong national leader, has
perenially been among the most successful parties in local mayoral
races. Of the current 210 mayoral seats, SLS has 43 mayors in place
and 30 more "Independent" mayors who enjoy support from the SLS.
They expect to retain all the seats they currently control and
perhaps gain a few more. Despite some optimism that perceived
"failures" of the Jansa coalition will give a boost to the LDS, its
own inability to articulate a vision and run strong candidates will
likely result in a further decline in its overall popularity.