DAS DICARLO ENGAGES ON REGIONAL ISSUES IN LJUBLJANA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000646

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/NCE, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: PREL EAID SI YI SR
SUBJECT: DAS DICARLO ENGAGES ON REGIONAL ISSUES IN LJUBLJANA


Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In October 3-4 meetings with EUR DAS Rosemary
DiCarlo, Slovenia's Deputy Foreign Minister Bozo Cerar, and
chief international affairs advisor to the Prime Minister,
Andrej Rahten reiterated Slovenia's support for the work of
both the UN Special Negotiator Ahtisaari and the Contact
Group on resolving the question of independence for Kosovo in

2006. Both stressed the importance of moving ahead with
Ahtisaari's proposals, as delay would cause more problems
than it might solve. Maintaining a euro-Atlantic perspective
for the entire region, but especially Serbia, was also high
on the Slovene agenda. Echoing Prime Minster Janez Jansa's
recent comments to Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, Cerar
predicted that if Kosovo independence were resolved by the
end of 2006, by the end of 2008 we could see significant
peacekeeping troop reduction in the region. In her meetings
DAS DiCarlo delivered a strong message on the need for the
U.S. and EU to send a clear and unified message to the
Government of Serbia about the need to prepare itself and its
public for the inevitable independence of Kosovo. Progress in
other parts of the region and the potential for bringing
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro into the Partnership
for Peace were also discussed extensively. Slovenia is
prepared to contribute technical assistance to the entire
region through its Center for European Perspective (CEP),but
it does recognize there may be financial and political
limitations to overcome. End Summary.

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Kosovo - Don't Delay
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2. (C) In separate meetings on October 3, EUR DAS Rosemary
DiCarlo met with Deputy Foreign Minister Bozo Cerar and
International Affairs Advisor to the Prime Minister Andrej
Rahten to exchange views on the way ahead in the Western
Balkans. Both conversations focused heavily on Kosovo, its
impending independence and how to convince Serbian political
leadership of the need to prepare itself and the public for
this immanent change. Cerar and Rahten both urged that
Ahtisaari and the UN move forward sooner rather than later on
a decision on Kosovo. A long delay would only cause further
instability in Serbia and, they feared, could spill over into
Bosnia. They echoed Prime Minister Janez Jansa's assessment
given to Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld in late September,
that PM Kostunica, an admirable dissident in his day, was no
longer able to provide the kind of strong, moral leadership
Serbia needs, and the outcome of Serbian elections, should
they happen, would have no positive effect on the process.
Kosovo was not let off the hook, however, as both expressed
the need to keep Pristina focused on its responsibilities
vis-a-vis minorities and other standards it needs to meet.
Cerar also predicted (as had PM Jansa in late September) that
if Kosovo independence were resolved by the end of 2006, by
the end of 2008 we could see significant peacekeeping troop
reduction in the region.

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Serbia - Keep Euro/Atlantic Perspective
--------------


3. (C) Both Cerar and Rahten agreed with DiCarlo's assessment
that an EU and NATO perspective must be kept alive for
Serbia, and that ICTY cooperation is of paramount importance.
Given the hurdle of handing over war criminals, they
discussed how Slovenia and others could help Serbia to meet
this responsibility and not become discouraged by talk of EU
enlargement fatigue and lack of access to the resources of
transatlantic partnership. DiCarlo urged the GOS to continue
reinforcing the message with their Serb counterparts that the
EU is of one mind and in sync with the US on the independence
of Kosovo. Additionally, Serbia must face this reality and
do what is necessary to prepare for the future without Kosovo
and within the EU and NATO. Rahten discussed a "Food for
Thought" paper on possible measures to be taken in support of
Serbia that Slovenia had drafted with the V-4 and Austria and
discussed in mid-September in Austria. The paper contains a
variety of concrete measures that can be taken bilaterally
and regionally, such as student exchanges and closer
involvement in existing regional partnerships, that would
encourage the government as well as the population to see its
future in Europe. Slovenia has pledged to keep the Western
Balkans on the EU agenda and will certainly make it a primary
focus of its own presidency in early 2008.

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Bosnia - Ready for Prime Time?
--------------


4. (C) Discussion of recent Bosnian elections centered on
whether the candidates, and particularly Dodik of Republika
Srpska (RS),could put the rhetoric behind them and get on
with Constitutional and other necessary reforms. DiCarlo
told Cerar and Rahten that the decision to terminate OHR
would be made in February, and the effectiveness of the
Bosnian presidency and government between now and then would
factor into that decision. Rahten expressed real concern over
the renewal of the RS-Serbia Agreement on Special and
Parallel relations. Tying it to the Kosovo decision, Rahten
thought if that decision were delayed, it might further
embolden the RS-Serbia relationship in a negative direction.
He was not very concerned, however, about the ability to work
with Bosniak leader Haris Silajdzic, referring to Silajdzic's
stints as Foreign Minister and Prime Minister as positive
indications for his future behavior.

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Montenegro - Optimistic Outlook
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5. (C) The overall tone on Montenegro was upbeat and
positive. Cerar and Rahten agreed that Montenegro's
cooperation with ICTY was positive and that, all things
considered, it was a very good candidate for PfP. There was
also agreement that the problem of organized crime would need
to be seriously tackled. Slovenia is preparing to receive
the President of Montenegro in Ljubljana the week of October
9 and plans to offer technical assistance on training of
diplomats and/or civil servants, depending on what the
Montenegrins request. Cerar was very hopeful that Montenegro
would soon be considered for PfP, saying that it could
provide a stimulus for Serbia to also do what it can to get
on board.

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NATO - PFP - RIGA
--------------


6. (C) Cerar and Rahten both stresed the importance of
keeping the NATO doors ope to the Western Balkans and
perhaps moving ahead(without Serbia) on bringing Montenegro
and Bosna into PfP. In a separate meeting with DAS DiCarlo
MFA Director of the Office for Security Policy,Stanislav
Vidovic, said that NATO needed to develop a common position
onthe future of the Western Balkans and ideally thiswould
be done by the Riga Summit. He also said t would be very
important for NATO, during the Rga Summit, to send a strong
message that it had ts own policy on enlargement and as
countries filed the requirements for membership, they would
b given full consideration. Vidovic stressed that hile
compliance with ICTY was a serious prerequiite, it was
important not to leave Serbia behind, and ways would have to
be found to encourage democratic forces and not "humiliate"
Serbia as others passed it on the path to NATO. DiCarlo
explained that the USG fully appreciated the need to keep
Serbia moving forward and though PfP was not currently an
option, we were doing a great deal bilaterally to help reform
and modernize the Serbian military. She urged Slovenia to
also engage more bilaterally as a way to keep Serbia focused
on a Euro-Atlantic future.

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EU - Keeping the Doors Open
--------------


7. (C) A theme which ran throughout the two days of DAS
DiCarlo's visit was the desire to "keep the doors to the EU
open" for Serbia, Croatia and the other countries of the
Western Balkans. The GOS has said consistently that it will
make this a top agenda item during its presidency of the EU
in early 2008. Slovenia believes membership of the rest of
the former Yugoslavia in the EU and NATO is the only true
guarantee for peace, stability and prosperity in the region.

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Center for European Perspective
--------------


8. (C) In a separate lunch with MFA Director General for
Bilateral Affairs Bogdan Benko, Director of the Office of
South Eastern Europe, Leon Marc, and Program Manager of the
Center for European Perspective, Denis Risman, DiCarlo
discussed with the group ways in which Slovenia could engage
most effectively in the region, and practically, in areas
where the USG has to be careful about leaving too strong a
mark itself. DiCarlo mentioned the need for the Government
of Serbia to do a better job on public relations and
preparing for the public for Kosovo's independence. She
suggested this as an area where Slovenia might be able to
engage, particularly with civil society, and where it is
difficult for the USG to do so. Risman agreed that Serbia
could use some help in this area. He added that while
Slovenia might be able to work on that type of issue with
Serbia, there could be some resistance from Belgrade to
receiving this sort of assistance from a country which only
15 years ago was a quiet backwater of a Belgrade-centric
Yugoslavia. Nonetheless, Risman sees great potential for
technical assistance in Serbia, Kosovo and the rest of the
region. In addition to training CEP is preparing for Kosovar
civil servants, it has had requests for diplomatic training
from Montenegro. There are plans for a program on energy
cooperation underway, which would be held in December and is
a joint project with local think tank ISS. Risman made a
strong pitch for joint projects in the region and
particularly Kosovo and Serbia. Both Cerar and Rahten also
promoted CEP as a good vehicle for the transformation of the
Western Balkans into stable, prosperous, westward looking
countries.


9. (U) DAS DiCarlo has cleared this cable.
ROBERTSON