SCENESETTER: SECDEF'S SEPTEMBER 27-29 TRIP TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LJUBLJANA 000611

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE, OSD FOR MSADOWSKA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: MARR MOPS NATO PGOV PREL PTER SI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: SECDEF'S SEPTEMBER 27-29 TRIP TO
SLOVENIA

REF: FROM COM FOR SECRETARY RUMSFELD

Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Mr. Secretary, we welcome your visit to
Slovenia for the NATO Defense Ministerial in Portoroz,
September 27-29, 2006. Since your November 2002 visit,
Slovenia has assumed greater responsibility for the
projection of security and promotion of democracy abroad and
has emerged as a close ally and a capable partner in the
fight against terrorism. Your bilateral discussions with
Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa and Minister of Defense
Karl Erjavec will provide an excellent opportunity to extend
the momentum created by Prime Minister Jansa,s July 10 visit
to the White House, to get a progress report on the
transformation of the Slovenian Armed Forces (SAF),emphasize
continued commitment to meeting the NATO Force Goals, and
shore up Slovenia,s role as a reliable, albeit small, NATO
ally. Our goal for your visit is to push Slovenia to build
on its formidable progress and ensure that it has a strong
voice in promoting American interests in Europe and the world
as it prepares to take the EU presidency in January 2008.
END SUMMARY.

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International Engagement - Slovenia's Contributions
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2. (U) Slovenia has deployed forces in support of every NATO
mission since its accession. It has 4 trainers in Iraq, 50
troops in Afghanistan, has plans to dramatically increase its
presence in Kosovo from 86 to over 600 troops within the next
year, and will contribute 10 to 12 troops to the UNIFIL
mission. While the numbers may appear modest, Slovenian
troops participate in eight international operations, and
approximately 11% of Slovenia,s military force will be
deployed abroad by the end of next year (see septel for more
detailed information on Slovenia's international operations).


3. (U) Slovenia is leading the way in EU integration among
the countries of Central Europe. It will be the first to
join the eurozone (in January 2007) and the first to hold the
Presidency of the European Union (in January 2008). Slovenia
has held a series of leadership roles in international
organizations recently, serving as Chairman of the OSCE in
2005 and taking the Chair of the IAEA Board of Governors for
2006-2007. It is also working to be a constructive neighbor
closer to home through initiatives like the Center for
European Perspective, an NGO established by the GoS that is
part of a long-range effort to bring all the former Yugoslav
countries into the EU.

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Bilateral Meeting with Prime Minister Jansa
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4. (U) Prime Minister Janez Jansa (pronounced YAN-sha) has
twice before served as Slovenia,s Minister of Defense (from
1990 to 1994 and again in 2000.)


5. (SBU) PM Jansa has played a critical role for this young
nation, from rallying Slovenian forces to face down the
Yugoslav National Army in 1991 to now leading it through its
first years as a member of NATO and the EU. He began his
political career in the 1980's as a dissident and was at the
center of the struggle for democracy. His activities landed
him in detention and prison for six months, including a
period in solitary confinement. He helped to found the first
opposition political party, the Slovene Democratic Alliance.
In 1990 he was elected to Parliament, and in May of that year
took his first term as Minister of Defense. During his time
as Defense Minister, Jansa presided over the transformation
of Slovenia,s Territorial Defense Force into an independent
military and subsequently spearheaded Slovenia's entry into
NATO,s Partnership for Peace. In 1994 Jansa left government
and went into the political opposition. Ten years later his
party won a majority in Parliamentary elections and he was
named Prime Minister.


6. (SBU) Jansa,s tenure has emphasized the transatlantic
partnership (see below). His past experience as MoD is
evident and Jansa maintains a sharp interest in security and

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defense issues. Jansa will want to hear your thoughts on the
future shape of NATO and the transatlantic relationship -
with a view to Slovenia's 2008 EU presidency. You will find
him and his administration much more in sync with what we are
trying to accomplish around the world than previous Slovenian
administrations.

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Slovenia,s Foreign Policy Priorities: Emphasizing the
Transatlantic Partnership
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7. (U) Since forming his government nearly two years ago,
Jansa has advanced his goal of strengthening ties with the
United States. His July 10 visit to Washington was the
culmination of 18 months of re-aligning the domestic and
foreign policy of Slovenia towards a more expansive view that
has Slovenia playing an active role in NATO and other
international organizations.


8. (U) Jansa has continued to develop as a strong and
skillful leader on foreign policy. This past January, he
decided to deploy four Slovenian military trainers to Iraq
despite stiff resistance from the press and public, and some
reluctance from his coalition. He was unflappable in the
face of intense media criticism and made a convincing case
for involvement based on Slovenia's obligations as a member
of NATO and the need for Slovenia to help promote security
and stability in Iraq. In addition, the GOS has contributed
300,000 Euro to the NTM-I trust fund. We should thank Jansa
again, as the President did, for his leadership and courage
in bucking the European trend in Iraq and encourage him to
continue supporting Slovenia's active participation in NATO.


9. (U) Slovenia has also made a solid contribution to our
efforts in Afghanistan and has had troops deployed there
since March 2003, with a current force level of 54. While we
do not expect the GOS to offer more in the way of military
support, it has repeatedly expressed interest in becoming
involved in civil reconstruction once the security situation
improves.

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Priority #1 - Western Balkans
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10. (U) Despite its increasing engagement outside of Europe,
Slovenia's primary strategic focus has been and will remain
the Western Balkans. Providing forces for KFOR and the EU
mission in Bosnia is its priority for troop deployment
outside of Slovenia. It has backed this up with 85 troops in
Kosovo and 83 in Bosnia today, and commitments to increase
its presence to approximately 600 troops in Kosovo in 2007.
Foreign Minister Rupel is taking an active role in a special
EU planning team in Brussels that will shape the future role
of the EU in Kosovo once status has been determined.


11. (SBU) Over the next 15 months, Jansa and his government
will be preparing to take on the monumental job of the EU
presidency in the first six months of 2008. The role will
move a host of complex issues to the front burner. While
Slovenia's initial goals for the Presidency appear to
complement our own interests, there will be a strong pull
from Brussels for resources and attention and the temptation
will be for Slovenia to adopt a stance as "mediator" on
issues of importance to us. In the coming months we will
more actively engage the GOS on our priorities. Drawing
Slovenia into close partnerships on issues from NATO
peace-keeping missions to human rights initiatives in the UN
and the building of civil society in emerging democracies and
regions recovering from war and other disasters will ensure
an EU presidency in 2008 that understands and appreciates
U.S. priorities in the transatlantic relationship and around
the globe.

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Bilateral Meeting with Minister of Defense Karl Erjavec
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12. (C) You will meet with Minister of Defense Karl Erjavec
(er-YA-vets). You last met Erjavec in December 2005 on the
margins of the Southeastern European Defense Ministerial in

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Washington. He is the head of the Slovenian pensioner's
party (DeSuS),which holds the smallest number of seats in
the current National Assembly. Erjavec is one of the weaker
members of the ruling government and has struggled through a
variety of embarrassing missteps at the MoD over the past few
months, including the controversial tender for purchase of
8x8 armored vehicles, a budget fight, and sexual harassment
allegations within the ranks (septel.)


13. (SBU) Erjavec will want to talk about the success of the
SAF,s transformation efforts and offer a positive progress
report on how Slovenia will meet its NATO Force Goals despite
delaying its commitment to increase its defense budget to 2%
of GDP by 2008. Time permitting, you should push, and
Erjavec will be expecting to discuss, a number of simmering
topics of bilateral interest outlined below, including
defense spending commitments, recent and future defense
acquisitions, and the transparency of the Slovenian
acquisition process.

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POL-MIL HOT TOPICS
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14. (U) MoD BUDGET COMMITMENT. The GoS's most recent budget
plans for 2007 and 2008 include a defense budget of 1.65% of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2007 and 1.81% of GDP for
2008, instead of the 2% of GDP originally planned. While the
MoD budget will continue to increase, this decision will
delay the GoS from hitting the NATO 2% of GDP target until
2009 or later. The move was based more on the GoS,s need to
trim its budget as a part of an economic and tax reform plan
than on lack of political will to meet the 2% goal. While PM
Jansa and MoD Erjavec will emphasize that the budget
shortfall will not impact their commitment to meet NATO Force
Goals, they should be reminded of their commitment to hit 2%
of GDP for military spending and its symbolic importance in
showing Slovenia,s long-term commitment to NATO.


15. (C) AIR POLICING. Slovenia,s air defense needs and the
desire of senior military officials for acquisition of
fighter jets continues to create a buzz around the MoD.
Chief of Defense (CHOD) Gutman initiated a discussion on air
policing during my courtesy call in July 2006, and gave a
strong impression that the SAF was seriously considering
purchasing fighters. Subsequent conversations between
Embassy personnel and MoD officials confirm that there is an
extremely strong interest within the GoS. PM Jansa privately
tells us this will not happen: it is too expensive, and there
is no need for it, despite the fact that some in the SAF
would like having fighters. PM Jansa may talk about
Slovenia,s need to resolve its air defense issues while
recognizing that it should be done in a way that works in
tandem with Slovenia's commitments to the NATO Force Goals.
(COMMENT: Slovenia's airspace is technically policed through
an agreement with Italy. However, only one token flight has
been made - the day after Slovenia became a NATO member in

2004. The GoS continues to look for a more satisfactory
long-term arrangement for its air defense due to political
resistance to having Italy do it. On the other hand CHOD
Gutman has made clear that SAF interest in fighters is due to
even greater political resistance to future potential NATO
members in the region, namely Croatia and Serbia, doing the
job. END COMMENT.)


16. (SBU) TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT. Slovenia plans to acquire two
C27 or CASA 295 transport aircraft for logistics support of
their deployed troops. The intent is to join the U.S.
purchase of the Joint Cargo Aircraft. Slovenia also signed
on for a small (60 hours) commitment to the Multinational
C-17 Airlift Initiative. Though there has been talk over the
past year about SAF transport capabilities and the possible
purchase of a C-130, the Chief of Defense has said that
Slovenia is not currently looking to purchase C-130 transport
aircraft, and it is content with the SAF's ability to utilize
NATO transport aircraft when necessary. With transport
aircraft a part of Slovenia,s NATO Force Goals, this is an
area that Slovenia should be pushed to emphasize.


17. (C) DEFENSE ACQUISITIONS. MoD Erjavec spent much of the
summer of 2006 defending a controversial tender decision to
procure 136 8x8 armored wheeled vehicles from Finnish defense

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contractor Patria Vehicles for USD 330 million rather than
favoring the bid from Slovenian defense company Sistemska
Tehnika (which is partially owned by a subsidiary of a
subsidiary of General Dynamics Corporation.) While the GoS
defends the decision with a polished set of talking points
(saying that the assessment of the bids was fair and that
Patria made the better offer in terms of technology,
finances, and benefit to the Slovenian economy),the issue
continues to simmer in the press with allegations that the
contract will cost much more and that the decision was made
improperly. This is not a dead issue and, rumor has it,
might cost Erjavec his job. Post is closely following the
MoD,s current request for bids to provide a tactical
engagement simulation system as part of a broader combat
training center project. The two competitors are U.S.-based
Cubic Corporation and the Swedish firm Saab. Post will
strongly advocate for the MoD to consider the benefits of
purchasing from Cubic (via Foreign Military Sales) in order
to ensure future training interoperability with U.S. forces.
Given the unfavorable decision on the 8x8 and the pervading
sense that Slovenian defense purchases are not transparent,
we will continue to emphasize the need for the procurement
process to be fair and transparent, while highlighting the
benefits of US made defense equipment.


18. (U) NATO FORCE GOALS. Shortly after joining NATO
Slovenia accepted or partially accepted 44 NATO Force Goals
(NFGs),rejecting none. Slovenia,s primary NFGs in 2004
included an infantry battalion to be provided in rotations
for up to six months by 2012, a Nuclear, Biological, and
Chemical (NBC) battalion for the NATO Reaction Force by 2009,
and several combat support and combat service support assets.
In March 2006, Slovenia received 54 additional NATO Force
Goals & Updates. It accepted or partially accepted 53 of
these and rejected one (Force Protection for Deployed Air
Units.) With the additional 2006 NFG Updates, Slovenia is
being asked to further increase the number of deployable
combat and combat support units. A new high readiness
reconnaissance company is planned by the end of 2012 and a
military police company in 2008. Slovenia is also being asked
to provide more deployable intelligence, surveillance, target
acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) assets. In terms of
acquisitions, NATO is asking Slovenia to procure 3 additional
helicopters and two light transport aircraft by 2011.
Slovenia asserts that it is on track to meet all, or almost
all, of its NFGs even though the commitment to spend 2% of
GDP on defense is slipping. We should continue to emphasize
the necessity of meeting the NFGs in the agreed upon
timeframe.


19. (U) SAF CAVEATS ON PARTICIPATION IN INTERNATIONAL
OPERATIONS. Currently, internationally deployed members of
the Slovenian Armed Forces operate under a law prohibiting
them from conducting crowd and riot control (their activities
are restricted to traffic control.) Representatives of the
GoS indicated at the April 2006 Bilateral Pol/Mil talks in
Ljubljana that the GOS intends to pass legislation by the end
of 2006 that will eliminate almost all of the national
caveats for participation in peacekeeping operations,
enabling SAF in Afghanistan to perform the full range of
missions.


20. (U) Mr. Secretary, much has changed since your November
2002 visit. The GoS has made dramatic progress in
reorienting Slovenian foreign policy towards NATO and the EU,
and becoming a true partner in promoting security and
democracy abroad. With Slovenia poised to take the EU
presidency in January 2008, now is the time to engage this
friendly government and work with it to promote American
interests in Europe and the world. I look forward to
welcoming you in Slovenia next week.
ROBERTSON