SLOVENIA: PRESIDENT DRNOVSEK SEEKING TO MAKE A

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000034

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR MARK PEKALA, EUR/NCE and EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: PRESIDENT DRNOVSEK SEEKING TO MAKE A
DIFFERENCE ON CROATIA, MONTENEGRO, IRAQ, AND AT HOME

REF: LJUBLJANA 30

Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.4 B and D


1. (C) Summary: At a lunch January 13, President Drnovsek,
accompanied by Presidential Advisor and former FM Ivo Vajgl,
outlined for COM his proposals to galvanize
international assistance for Darfur (reported reftel),his
ideas on how to resolve the long-simmering
Slovenian-Croatian border dispute, and his thoughts on how
to help Montenegro hold an independence referendum without
exacerbating tensions with the opposition and Serbia. Drnovsek
also commented on the Government's decision to send four
military trainers to NTM-I and on internal Slovenian
political developments. News reports appearing January 18
confirm that Drnovsek is in very poor health.
End summary.

Slovenia-Croatia Border Issue
--------------


2. (C) Drnovsek related that he has had discussions with
Croatian President Mesic about finding a way out of the
current impasse over the GOS-GOC border issue. Drnovsek's
proposal is that the two sides should agree to the
substance of the Drnovsek-Racan Agreement (initialed in 2001,
but not ratified by the Croatian parliament),minus one
element: the maritime corridor to the open sea which
Slovenia got through Croatian waters. To save face, both
sides would maintain their official border claims for
purposes of an eventual permanent agreement, but in
practice, Slovenia would continue to be able to navigate
through what would "provisionally" become Croatian waters.
Once Croatia became part of the EU, however, this issue would
go away.


3. (C) Drnovsek told COM that he briefed Prime Minister Jansa
on the idea and that Jansa responded favorably and may
raise this with Croatian PM Sanader. The President
mentioned in an aside that he disagrees with Foreign
Minister Rupel, who thinks that Slovenia has an advantage
as an EU member to pressure Croatia on the border issue.
Drnovsek also reported that the Croatian Ambassador in
Ljubljana is fairly positive and is waiting for reaction
from Zagreb. (Comment: Drnovsek told COM he had discussed all
of his initiatives - the Croatia border issue, Montenegro and
Darfur with PM Jansa. However, it appears that FM Rupel may have
been left out of the loop, reflecting the bad blood existing
between the former FM Vajgl and Rupel. End comment.)

A Change in Coalition?
--------------


4. (C) When COM asked whether the GOS coalition - and particularly
the nationalistic Slovene People's Party (SLS) -- could support
the idea of such a "provisional agreement" on the border issue,
Drnovsek agreed the Government would have some work to do. But,
he added, there "might be some changes" in the coalition in the
near future which could make working this issue easier. Drnovsek
speculated that the primary opposition party, the Liberal
Democracy of Slovenia (LDS),may actually split soon because the
majority of more moderate members are fed up with current
president Jelko Kacin's leadership style. Vajgl, who is clearly
involved behind the scenes, added that even the majority of LDS
parliamentary members might leave to join a more moderate group.
(Comment: Drnovsek was clearly hinting, as he has in the past,
at the desirability of a grand coalition of the governing Slovene
Democratic Party (SDS) and the LDS to provide a more consistent
centrist leadership for Slovenia. End comment.)

Montenegro Referendum
--------------


5. (C) Drnovsek said that in a recent conversation during
Montenegrin President Djukanovic's visit to Slovenia during the
holidays, Djukanovic had asked for help in "coming out of the
current relationship with Serbia." Drnovsek noted that the three-
year term of the agreement between Serbia and Montenegro on not
holding a referendum on independence expires on February 7. He
reported that he and Djukanovic discussed how to proceed with
such a referendum without exacerbating tensions with the
opposition. Drnovsek told COM that Djukanovic had proposed much
earlier, but had not gotten any Serbian response, the idea that
immediately before a referendum he would announce that if the
referendum were successful, the soon-to-be-independent Montenegro
would conclude an association agreement with Serbia that would
establish the basis for shared embassies overseas, a joint
Defense Ministry, a joint parliament, joint participation in NATO
activities, and no tariffs or border controls between the two
countries. All of this would be designed to lessen tensions that
might exist between the Montenegrin forces for independence and


those opposed to it.


6. (C) Drnovsek also discussed the issue of what conditions are
necessary for the referendum to pass. He said that the
Montenegrin opposition is demanding that any vote require an
absolute majority of eligible voters for independence to be
valid, and that Djukanovic believes it should be a
simple majority of voters. Drnovsek proposed that
Djukanovic compromise with the opposition and adopt the
Danish model, under which forty or more percent of
eligible voters would have to support independence. Drnovsek
said Djukanovic found this to be an interesting and attractive
idea. Drnovsek mentioned that he has discussed this with
Solana and urged Solana to bring the Montenegro opposition
on board with it. He thought we might want to use our good
offices to bear in that direction as well.

Slovenia Decision on Iraq
--------------


7. (C) COM thanked Drnovsek for his support for the GOS decision
to send trainers to Iraq. Drnovsek said that while he did
not agree with the initial decision to go to war, he feels
strongly that the U.S. cannot leave Iraq now. He expressed
conviction that an early U.S. departure would lead to
chaos. He reported that PM Jansa had informed him about the
decision before it was made public. Vajgl criticized the
Government for keeping its decision on Iraq secret from the
opposition. Drnovsek disagreed, characterizing LDS president
Kacin as untrustworthy and difficult to deal with, and therefore
it was understandable why the Government did not preview its
decision with Kacin.

Drnovsek's Health
--------------


8. (C) The Slovenian press is reporting that Drnovsek's health
is worsening. One paper, Dnevnik, quoted the President as
acknowledging that his cancer has spread and that he has
given up on conventional medical treatment. The commercial
broadcaster POP TV said the President discussed his health
publicly for the first time with a Croatian publication,
revealing that his last tests in January 2005 showed no
improvement in his condition. There is frequent
speculation that Drnovsek's ambitious initiatives regarding
Kosovo, Darfur and other Balkans issues may be prompted by
his poor health and desire for a lasting legacy as a
peacemaker.

ROBERTSON


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