SLOVENIA: DARFUR, KOSOVO, A NEW MOVEMENT: WHAT IS PRESIDENT DRNOVSEK UP TO?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LJUBLJANA 000101

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR, AF (RANNEBERGER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOVSI DARFR EAID SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: DARFUR, KOSOVO, A NEW MOVEMENT: WHAT IS
PRESIDENT DRNOVSEK UP TO?

REF: A. 05 LJUBLJANA 737


B. 05 LJUBLJANA 756

C. 05 LJUBLJANA 758

D. LJUBLJANA 30

E. LJUBLJANA 66

Classified By: COM THOMAS B ROBERTSON FOR REASONS 1.4B AND D.


1. (C) Summary: In the past four months Slovenian
President Drnovsek has dramatically increased his
activities on both the international and domestic scenes.
He has put forward an initiative on resolving the status of
Kosovo, publicly called for the EU to drop cap subsidies in
WTO trade negotiations, announced a plan to solve the
Croatian-Slovenian maritime border dispute, and now, the
current focus of his international activity, elaborated a
10 point (then 16 point) plan to end the humanitarian
and political crisis in Darfur. He has proclaimed a new
"movement of justice and development" to support his Darfur
initiative and encourage other NGO and charity work. Over
the weekend he apologized to the Muslim world for a
Slovenian magazine's publication of the offensive cartoon
of the Prophet Mohammed. On the domestic front he recently
ignored recommendations by the Procuracy and Justice Ministry and
pardoned a Slovenian businessman convicted of fraud, ended
his frozen membership in the major opposition party, LDS,
and this weekend he announced he would not sign the new
Slovenian Law on Asylum (although he is required to sign by
the constitution). (Late note: on February 14, he went ahead
and signed it.)


2. (C) It is no coincidence that this activity comes at a
time when the president has first admitted to the public
that his kidney cancer, once in remission, had spread to
his lungs and his liver. Denying that his health was bad,
he has spoken of his allegedly successful treatment through
"alternative medicine," including giving up all meat and
alcohol. He thereby unleashed a national debate about
whether his choice of alternative medicine and
vegetarianism is a positive message for the Slovenian
public (and its economy). As if this were not enough, he
has met for the first time a 20 year old daughter he
supposedly didn't know he had. He has wrought chaos in his
own office by at first firing a couple of his advisors,
then keeping one of them on and firing another senior
assistant (the latter done by email). The bottom line:
most Slovenians are scratching their heads about their
president's activity, many of them seeing it sympathetically as
the attempt of a dying man to create a legacy. The danger, as
both his Kosovo and Darfur initiatives have shown, is that he
could muck up sensitive negotiations while not having the
energy or staff to see them through. While our interests are
in cautiously supporting the president's initiatives where they
dovetail with ours (such as expanding the beneficent activities of
NGO's and Slovenians in general),we must remember that
Drnovsek does not speak for the government (although
generally PM Jansa has expressed support for his Darfur
activities). End Summary.

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Drnovsek all over the map...and unpredictable
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3. (C) Since mid November I have had the opportunity to
meet with the President several times where he has laid out
his latest initiatives and ideas. The first (Ref A),where
he called together contact group ambassadors to promote an
initiative for the final status for Kosovo, was typical in
the seriousness of the substance of the proposal while the
style of presentation and follow up raised serious
questions about the president's purpose. Laying out the
proposal for Serb and Kosovar leaders to meet discreetly in
Ljubljana to break the ice for upcoming negotiations,
Drnovsek immediately violated the supposedly confidential
nature of his approach by spilling it to the press, thereby
fating his proposal to a quick demise and leading his Serb
hosts to cancel his upcoming visit. At the same meeting he
teased the French Ambassador about the EU's need to come forward
to meet the American challenge on Doha round negotiations, a
point he shortly thereafter made public. Drnovsek has made
good use of his bully pulpit to make his views known
(as he did helpfully when the government decided to send trainers
to Iraq),but there is an element of unpredictability in his actions.
Even his senior most advisor, former FM Ivo Vajgl, professed to me
that he was unaware Drnovsek would go public with his
Kosovo initiative.


LJUBLJANA 00000101 002 OF 004


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Prime Minister generally approves, but FM playing catch up
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4. (C) At each of these meetings, I have pointedly asked
whether the government is on board with the President's
initiatives. In each case concerning foreign policy
initiatives, whether concerning Kosovo, Croatia, or now
Darfur, Drnovsek has replied that he has discussed it with
Prime Minister Jansa and that Jansa supports him. In fact,
Jansa has on occasion spoken publicly of his general
support for the President's initiatives, most recently
Darfur. That said, it is equally clear that Drnovsek has
not made much of an effort to keep Foreign Minister Rupel
apprised of his activities, and more than once Rupel has
expressed to me his frustration at trying to manage the
President's foreign policy agenda (complaining for example
about the Kosovo initiative, noting that he and Serb FM
Draskovic had had discussions about some of the same ideas,
while keeping them confidential.) Part of this is the
result of the tension between Vajgl and Rupel, who do not
get along and have each been known to undermine the other's
efforts. For my part, I will continue to make sure the
Foreign Ministry is in the loop about what the President's
office is asking of us. During the DVC between Drnovsek
and Ambassador Ranneberger ten days ago, we informed the
MFA it was going forward and suggested to the President's
office that Dep FM Cerar be invited, which he was.

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Going public with the return of his cancer.....
-------------- ---



5. (C) All of this activity has taken place at the same
time that Drnovsek has released to the public information
about his private life and health. The most serious of
these was public disclosure, first in a Croatian
publication, that his kidney cancer, which he has suffered
for years but had been in remission, had spread to his
lungs and liver. Still, despite this news, Drnovsek argued
that he is healthy, and that he has maintained his health
and energy thanks to his use of alternative medical
therapies. Part of this, as we have witnessed at lunches
with him recently, has been his decision to give up all
meat and alcohol. He has also urged other cancer victims
to give up meat and to consider alternative medicine.
(Granted, Slovenians can be pretty ascetic: MEP and Former
PM Peterle (another cancer survivor) told me over a
week ago he had already lost over 25 lbs during an over
month-long fast (liquids only) which he is continuing. MEP
and Social Democrat President Pahor is moreover a
triathlete with an incredibly rigorous training regime, and
PM Jansa has not given up technical climbing of steep
mountain walls despite his high office.) In any case, in
response to Drnovsek's announcement, both meat producers
and their representatives and the medical establishment
have raised serious concerns that the President has sent
the wrong message to the Slovenian people. On the medical
front recently there was a public debate on television
about the effectiveness of alternative medical options.
While the President's condition was not the center of the
discussion, it was obviously the cause for the discussion
at this time.

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.....and a daughter he didn't know.
--------------


6. (C) During the same period, Drnovsek made public that
he had recently met with a 20 year old daughter whom he had
previously never met before. Incredible on the face of it,
his admission met with some surprise but not particular
shock, as many Slovenians have children out of wedlock and
common-law marriages are not that unusual. While many
found it hard to believe that Drnovsek did not know he had
a daughter, the more relevant question was why he went
public with it now.

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Facing death, and determined to leave a legacy?
-------------- --


7. (C) Many Slovenians one talks to about Drnovsek's new
activity admit to being baffled by it. "I just don't know
what's going on in his head?" Finance Minister Bajuk
(protect) said to us last week. LSD President Jelko Kacin

LJUBLJANA 00000101 003 OF 004


(also protect),when we saw him a week earlier, was more
saddened and perplexed than angry by Drnovsek's gratuitous
decision to end his "frozen" membership in LSD and quit it
altogether. But he also thought that Drnovsek had "lost
it," noting that in responding to his illness he had lost his
sense of balance. Most agree that this flurry of activity
is the product of a dying man's determination to leave a
legacy.

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A dissenting view: Drnovsek out to set up presidential run
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8. (C) One embassy contact, Atlantic Council President
Anton Bebler (protect),was dismissive of the president's
efforts. Drnovsek, he argued, had never cared during his
prime ministerial years and before about any humanitarian
activities whatsoever, refusing many who tried to
interest him in them. Moreover, Bebler claimed, he was a
totally self-absorbed politician without friends whose
successful political career was a product more of luck and
the fact that most people voted against his opponents, not
for him. Bebler's take was that Drnovsek's activity, and
particularly the creation of his new movement, was a
transparent effort to establish a new party which could
support his re-election campaign for the presidency in 2007.
Despite this, and his obvious antipathy for Drnovsek, Bebler
did not believe Drnovsek would survive until those elections.

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Staff shortages, little coordination
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9. (C) In fact, it is hard to imagine how Drnovsek could
deliver on his many initiatives given the staff shortages
he has, some of them self generated. His firing last week,
by email, of his long trusted Secretary General, Matjaz Nahtigal,
was out of the blue. In December we had learned that two other
long time assistants would be leaving, Iztok Simoniti, the brother
of the Minister of Culture, and Melita Gabric. Simoniti, whose
wife is the Slovenian Ambassador to Germany, has in fact departed
and joined his wife in Berlin. But apparently Drnovsek had
second thoughts on Gabric who remains on the staff. We
understand that MFA Advisor Borut Grgic may be joining
Drnovsek's staff, and Drnovsek has brought on a new woman
to work with NGO's on his new movement's activities. But
all of this activity underscores how weak in resources the
president's office is. Including security and drivers, it
is still smaller than EUR/NCE!


10. (C) The challenge is made worse by the lack of
coordination between the president's office and the Foreign
Ministry, much a product of the animosity between senior
advisor Vajgl and Foreign Minister Rupel. In early January
in Washington, Slovenian Ambassador to the U.S. Zbogar
(protect) conveyed to me his concern that Vajgl was calling
up Slovenian ambassadors and giving them direct
instructions to support Drnovsek's initiatives with the
host country, without reference to Rupel or the Foreign
Ministry. Zogar made clear that he found himself in a
difficult position and appeared determined to make sure the
MFA was in the loop, urging Vajgl to work these demarches
through the ministry. Last week MFA Deputy FM Cerar
admitted to the Italian ambassador that he learned of much
of Drnovsek's activity through the press ticker, and in a
meeting with EU ambassadors FM Rupel last Friday with good
humor made clear he was out of the loop, asking his staffer
in front of the group to contact the interior ministry to
see if security had been set up for the possible arrival of
the Sudanese for negotiations. Not to belabor the obvious,
leaving the MFA out of the picture makes it more difficult
for it to support the president's initiative at the EU,
NATO, and at the UN.


11. (C) On February 13, Drnovsek's proposal for settling the
maritime border dispute with Croatia, based largely on his 2001
agreement with then Prime Minister Ivica Racan, was loudly rejected
by Croation Prime Minister Ivo Sanader and criticized by Rupel.
The MFA said in a release that Rupel had learned of the proposal
from the media and did not believe it was "the best solution."
Sanader called the proposal "unacceptable."

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Delays and obstacles....and the inevitable blame game
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12. (C) The problems of Drnovsek's engagement on such

LJUBLJANA 00000101 004 OF 004


complicated issues came through this weekend as the
president's office first announced on Saturday that
delegations representing both the Sudanese governments and
the rebel groups would be arriving soon for negotiations
Monday and Tuesday (February 13 and 14). Vajgl waxed
eloquent that day on the prospects for the president's
initiative: as cited by the Slovenian press agency (STA),
"a meeting of the warring sides is coming up, a peace and
donor conference are being organized, and the activity of
the UN and African Union has accelerated." Within hours
that lofty pronouncement started to unravel as Drnovsek
admitted to having "minor complications." In a BBC
interview on Saturday, first broadcast on Sunday, Drnovsek
accused the British Ambassador to Slovenia of trying "to
convince the rebels not to come to Slovenia," noted
problems in trying to arrange UN transportation for the
rebel leaders to Ljubljana ("the UN bureacrats did not
cooperate"),and mentioned that the NY Times had written an
editorial supporting Drnovsek's efforts (no mention that
this was in fact a Kristof op-ed). finally, Sunday morning,
STA reported (flash) that the talks had been postponed
indefinitely. On Monday, Drnovsek lambasted international
diplomats for allegedly blocking talks in Slovenia and
announced his suggestion that the venue for negotiations be
moved to Germany next weekend. The same day PM Jansa
stepped back from his full support for Drnovsek's
initiative by making clear he had blocked Intelligence
Chief Podbregar's return to Khartoum as Drnovsek's special
envoy since Drnovsek had not briefed him on the mission.
Special Advisor Vajgl added he would be forced to conduct
the negotiations with the Sudanese by telephone.

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Comment: Patience and caution the watchwords
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13. (C) So here we are. It is important again for
Washington observers to remember that Drnovsek does not
speak for the government. That said, as the president of
the country, he has a role to play in identifying the moral
high ground and providing leadership to Slovenians as a
surrogate "father of the country." Given his extensive
experience in Yugoslav and Slovenian politics, Drnovsek has
long been a respected figure who regularly tops the public opinion
popularity polls. But Drnovsek's pumped up activity has
the clear danger of undermining sensitive negotiations in which
the international community has been engaged in for some time.
More seriously for Slovenia, it threatens to expose Drnovsek as
a somewhat pathetic Johnny-Come-Lately seeking to go out in
a blaze of glory, but sadly lashing out when his plans
don't go the way he wishes. If that becomes his standard mode of
operation, it would seem that all of this is not so much about
Kosovo, about Croatia, or about Darfur. It is all about Drnovsek.
ROBERTSON