PORTUGAL PERMITS FREE ENTRY TO THE LEAST LIKELY

UNCLAS LISBON 000951

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ELAB PREL PGOV PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL PERMITS FREE ENTRY TO THE LEAST LIKELY
IMMIGRANTS



1. (U) Summary: On May 1, Portugal followed through with its
March 10 commitment to allow the free movement of students
and workers from the eight of the ten new EU members
(excluding Cyprus and Malta). The announcement enjoyed
significant press coverage, especially in light of the
high-profile U.S. immigration debate, but the move is viewed
by interlocutors as having little impact on Portugal's market
since it is unlikely to affect nationals from the country's
top seven immigrant populations. End summary.

Doors Open but...
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2. (U) On May 12, Pol-Econ Officer spoke with Alexandra
Briliero and Nuno Marquez from the Foreign Ministry about the
government's motivation to open Portugal's borders to new EU
members. Briliero said the Portuguese government had
researched the possible effects of the new immigration and
had concluded in a February 8 report that liberalization
would have little to no impact on Portugal's labor market.
She commented that Portugal's geographic distance, distinct
culture and language, and lackluster economy would likely
deter immigration. Nevertheless, the GOP believes its
decision demonstrates solidarity with the new member states
and shows Portugal's interest in establishing a broader
Europe. Briliero remarked that the GOP's concern about
immigration stems both from Portugal's own emigrant
community's experience and the hope of avoiding mistakes made
by other European nations, like France.


3. (U) Per a recent Eurostat study, immigrants make up almost
10% of the aging Portuguese workforce. That number is
steadily increasing as legal and illegal immigrants come from
Brazil (14.9%),the Ukraine (14.7%),Cape Verde (14.3%),
Angola (7.9%),Guinea-Bissau (5.6%),Moldova (3%),and
Romania (2.7%),according to Portugal's Immigration and
Border Service March 2006 statistics. Almost half of
Portugal's immigrants live in Lisbon, with the next largest
concentration in Faro in the Algarve. Since none of the
leading immigrant nations are included in the free movement
policy, Marquez predicted that any immigrants from the newly
permitted nations would probably go unnoticed given the size
of the immigrant population from the other nations.

Labor Not Concerned
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4. (SBU) General Workers' Union (UGT) Executive Secretary
Luis Lopes told Pol-Econ officer on May 9 that the measure
was more likely to affect other immigrants rather than
Portuguese workers. He reported that immigrants took similar
jobs -- heavy labor, unskilled labor, and other positions
unfilled by Portuguese citizens -- regardless of their skills
or backgrounds. He added that unemployment numbers among the
Portuguese have not changed despite increasing immigration.
"The newest arrivals just put more established immigrants out
of business," remarked Lopes. He mentioned that immigration
issues were becoming more important to Portugal given ongoing
debates in the United States and France.

Comment: Preparing for the Future
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5. (SBU) Comment: Although Portugal has yet to face a
significant immigration wave, the government has already
begun to consider the message it wants to convey to would-be
immigrants. Discussions with legal and illegal immigrants
confirm Lopes's statement that newer immigrants could cause
greater unemployment among the most established immigrant
groups and thereby create conditions for social unrest. For
now, however, Portugal remains fully open to EU members (with
the exception of Cyprus and Malta) and relatively welcoming
to eastern European and Lusophone community citizens. End
comment.
Hoffman