PORTUGAL: WHA DAS MADISON DISCUSSES CUBA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002383

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID CU PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL: WHA DAS MADISON DISCUSSES CUBA

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Classified By: POL CHIEF TROY FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: During WHA DAS Madison's visit, Portuguese
officials stressed a desire to support deeper coordination
between the U.S. and EU on Cuba policy. Portugal's new
interest in Cuba is largely due to its upcoming EU
Presidency, but also is affected by its desire to broaden the
trans-Atlantic dialogue. Portuguese FM Amado is not expected
to raise Cuba during his meeting with Secretary Rice October
24 but would be prepared to discuss the issue should the
Secretary wish to do so. End summary.

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Coordinating Policies
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2. (U) WHA DAS Kirsten Madison explored U.S., Portuguese, and
European policies on Cuba during meetings with Portuguese
officials in Lisbon October 20. Portuguese interlocutors
agreed that U.S. and European capitals need to coordinate
Cuba policies closely to effect a safer and more efficient
transition to democracy in Cuba. Madison made individual
calls upon officials in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA),the Prime Minister's Office, and the Portuguese
Institute for Development (IPAD). She discussed specific
ways countries could express solidarity with the Cuban people
and help to create a context in which democratic change can
take place. Madison also highlighted current U.S. planning
to respond positively and concretely to the development of a
transition government in Cuba. Madison underscored the need
for countries to engage on behalf of political prisoners,
human rights activists, and labor activists.


3. (C) The Foreign Minister's Diplomatic Advisor Paulo
Lourenco agreed that, whenever political transition in Cuba
occurs, the U.S. and European Union (EU) need to have
integrated policy objectives and specific plans in place to
assist the process. Lourenco lamented that European capitals
and Washington have had little discourse to date on this
subject and welcomed Madison's outreach efforts. Lourenco
suggested that "trans-Atlantic dialogue" should be
interpreted more widely, such that the U.S. and Europeans
also engage regional powers in the Americas on the issue.
Lourenco opined that, while wider engagement may make the
process move more slowly, the end result would be worth the
effort.


4. (C) Regarding the appropriate regional powers, Lourenco
noted that Brazil would be an ideal interlocutor. Lourenco
continued that Brazilian President Lula da Silva is a natural
leader in the hemisphere, but was "losing traction" to
Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Further engagement with Lula, he
suggested, would be in the U.S. interest. Madison noted that
the U.S. sees leadership from Latin America on Cuba as
essential and views Brazil as key to mobilizing hemispheric
support for a democratic transition.


5. (C) Lourenco and one of the Prime Minister's Diplomatic
Advisors, Jose Frederico Ludovice, noted that the
Ibero-American Summit (IAS) November 5-6 in Uruguay will
demonstrate the commitment of various nations to human rights
issues in Cuba. The MFA's Director for South and Central
American Affairs Helena Coutinho noted that the IAS's
Uruguayan hosts were eager to push for more open discussion
of Cuba, but may be prevented from doing so by other states.
Many nations, Coutinho stated, talk tough behind closed doors
but are reluctant to criticize the Cuban regime publicly.


6. (C) Ludovice related that much of the EU's policy on Cuba
was driven by Spain and that Portugal would coordinate its
policies and action closely with its Iberian neighbor. He
indicated that Portugal would seek to include Cuba on the
list of issues for its upcoming bilateral consultations with
Spain. It was important, Ludovice stated, that we not be
seen as driving any efforts towards regime change. Lourenco
added that Italy may participate in the IAS, giving Portugal
and Spain another ally.

Portugal's Optic on Cuba
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7. (C) Lourenco and Coutinho each noted that they do not
expect violence in the near-term in Cuba, but that policies
should strive to encourage stability rather than sudden,
violent change. Lourenco in particular noted the need to
protect the institutions that Cuba has, to avoid creating a
vacuum.


8. (C) Coutinho explained that Portugal has a two-track
approach with Cuba. The Portuguese are committed to widening
and deepening contacts with Cuba's civil society, but also
engages in a dialogue with Cuban officials. That dialogue,
Coutinho was careful to note, always includes the need to
free political prisoners and to halt acts of repudiation
against human rights activists. Furthermore, Coutinho said

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that Portuguese officials stress that continued dialogue is
contingent upon improvement in these areas.

A Euro Response
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9. (C) Coutinho noted that there is a clear sign of change
forthcoming in Cuba and that the EU is preparing to assist
the transition. The 25 current members of the EU, she said,
are attempting to achieve consensus on concrete measures to
respond to various scenarios.


10. (C) IPAD's Ines Rosa, however, told us that any EU
assistance proposal would be generated by Commission staff
resident in Havana and would be distributed to EU capitals
for comment. As no such proposal has yet arrived in Lisbon
for her agency's approval, Rosa opined that any project
discussions must be at a very early stage.

Comment
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11. (C) The MFA has traditionally stayed away from Cuba
issues, deferring instead to a consensus forged with other EU
members. In the last several weeks, however, the MFA's
leaders have made several overtures to us on the need to plan
for a coordinated response to Cuba's future. This change in
approach is likely due to Portugal's upcoming EU Presidency,
but may also be due in part to Portugal's desire to broaden
the trans-Atlantic dialogue to regional Latin American powers
such as Brazil. Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado is
not expected to raise Cuba during his October 24 call on
Secretary Rice, but will be prepared to discuss the subject

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if it is the Secretary's wish.
O'Neal