MIDEAST CRISIS: PORTUGAL CONCERNED BUT NEUTRAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 001449

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR TFLE01

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PO
SUBJECT: MIDEAST CRISIS: PORTUGAL CONCERNED BUT NEUTRAL



1. (U) Summary: Since July 14, Portuguese government
officials have made public comments lamenting the crisis in
the Middle East and reassuring the Portuguese public that the
violence will not affect Portugal, but has scrupulously
avoided taking sides. Leftist Portuguese political leaders,
however, criticized both the GOP and Europe in general for
"following the U.S. lead" and "not doing enough." Portugal
will likely continue to follow the EU's strategy and focus on
ensuring safe evacuation for its citizens. End summary.

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Concern over Instability
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2. (U) Both Portuguese President Cavaco Silva and Foreign
Minister Amado have expressed concern about the violence and
called for an international resolution to the crisis. (All
quotes below are informal translations.)

-- "It is very dangerous for the world. The level of
conflict that has been reached in the Middle East is truly
worrying and I hope the international community quickly
exerts the necessary pressure upon all parties involved to
make them resume negotiations." - President Anibal Cavaco
Silva, July 15

-- "We have been following with great concern the situation
in the Middle East resulting from the conflict between the
State of Israel and the Hezbollah movement and we repudiate
the escalation of violence because it endangers innocent
civilian lives." - Foreign Minister Luis Amado, July 16

-- "Naturally we support the diplomatic efforts being
developed by several sectors of the international community
with a view to re-establishing dialogue and an agreement to
put an end to this escalation. We have been following the
efforts of the Finnish EU Presidency and we identify with the
EU's diplomatic solution to this conflict. We are also
concerned - and the Secretary of State for the (Portuguese)
communities has been following throughout the day - with the
situation of the Portuguese caught in the middle of this
conflict, be they tourists or emigrants." -FM Luis Amado,
July 17

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Impact on Portugal
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3. (U) Prime Minister Socrates and Finance Minister
Teixeira's have focused on how events could affect Portugal's
economy and citizens:

-- "Portuguese citizens currently in Lebanon are well aware
of the situation. The contingency plans and conditions to
have (Portuguese citizens) return to Portugal have been
created." - PM Jose Socrates, July 15

-- "We regard the latest events and the consequent increase
in fuel prices with concern, but we have no reason to fear
that this could undermine the growth of the Portuguese
economy." - Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos,
July 15

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Leftist Politicians Criticize
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4. (U) While the GOP has refrained from passing judgment on
either the Hezbollah or Israel, leftist political parties
have strongly condemned Israel's actions and the GOP's lack
of censure.

-- "The PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) condemns the Zionist
Government of Israel and demands the end of the criminal
escalation of violence that is causing numerous victims (()
and dragging all the Middle East into a conflict of even more
vast and dangerous proportions."
- Official PCP communique, July 14

-- "I am sure we will not hear this Foreign Minister say
anything because he will comply with whatever the U.S. has to
say." - PCP Leader Jeronimo de Sousa, July 16

-- "The situation in Israel is crossed by rivers of
Palestinian blood and for one single reason which is the
richness of oil. That is why the U.S. wanted to occupy Iraq,
and that is why it now threatens Iran.

"The savagery that is now taking place in the frontiers of
Israel with Palestine and Lebanon is authorized, promoted,

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and encouraged by the U.S. President George W. Bush.

"Europe, who has remained silent, should play a role to
defend those countries and to prevent war." - Left Bloc
Leader Francisco Louca, July 15.

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Comment
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5. (SBU) We suspect that GOP leaders will continue to walk a
fine line on this issue, appealing for a negotiated solution
to the crisis in the Middle East and avoiding blaming either
side for the current violence, while continuing to profess
solidarity with the EU position. Criticism of Israel and the
U.S. by the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left
Bloc will continue, but will have little effect on GOP
policy, as those parties represent such a small percentage of
Portugal's population (the PCP holds 12 of Parliament's 230
seats, and the Left Bloc holds eight.) By contrast,
Portugal's two main political parties -- the left-of-center
PS and the right of center PSD (who together control 196
Parliamentary seats) -- have said nothing about the crisis;
their websites convey positions on a range of current events
but do not mention the fighting in Israel and Lebanon.
O'Neal