Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LINSK1234
2006-12-01 14:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Minsk
Cable title:
LUKASHENKO'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY: A METHOD TO THE
how-toVZCZCXRO3527 PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHSK #1234/04 3351403 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 011403Z DEC 06 XDK FM AMEMBASSY MINSK TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5386 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJINC PRIORITY 0067 RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0032 RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1361 RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF@MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY RHMQISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 LINSK 001234
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON CH VE AJ IR BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY: A METHOD TO THE
MADNESS
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* Missing Section 001 *
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* Missing Section 002 *
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* Missing Section 003 *
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MINSK 12011234 004 OF 004
of shielding them from significandly higher gas `rices next
year.
16. (C) Despite Belarus' perceived successeq with the EU,
most analysts agree that Lukashenko is fully aware that theQ
Un)ted States is a much harder nut to crack. That said, theQ
GOB seeks to at least keep the *SG from taking meaqures to
furTher constrain U.S.-Belarus trade -- e.g., securing the
renewal of the Jackson-Vanik waiver and the removal of
language referring to economic sanctions from the BelarusQ
Demmcracy ReauthoRizaion ctdraft legislaion -- witPout
addressing humanrights concerns. Key members in
Lukashenko'sadministration havestep`ed up their attempts t
engage in a "subqtative dialogue" to normalize bilateRal
relationXbut the GOB routinely qualifies that such a
dialoue would be on the@bas)s of "mutual respect" (ref G).
MFA CounseXor Rzheusskiy strongly sugg%sted to Pol/Econ ChRef
that the USG will have to accept that Belarus holds
fundamentally different views on political issues, but noted
such differences should not spill over into bilateral trade.
Active FoQmatign of an Anti-West Block/
--------------
17. (C) YakovlevskiY and several other experts with whom we
have spoken are convinced thaQ Belarus is actively woQking to
reinvigorate the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and set hp
LukaShenko as the eventual successor to Cuban leader Fidel
Castro as the next "Papa" of the anti-West block. Zaiko
noted that Lukashenko is the ideal anti-globalist leader %-
he is young (51 years old),energetic, bold, and he sits at
the helm of a growing, stable@(for now) economy in thJ heart
of Europe. In thi3 respect, some analysts assert that
Lukashenko's highly publicized relations with countries such
as Venezuela and Idan are as much politicaX as they areQ
economic@in .ature. Pkzdynak agdeed with this assessmenh but
noted that Belarjs' foreign podicy is fojnded more onQ
self-prefervation than on ideoloNical interests.
CommJnt
--------------
18. (CR We agree with our contBcts' assessmefts thatQBelarus' extremely tensJ
relationship with RussRa has
Prompted LukashJnko to sTrengthen politRcal and econoeic tiesQwith thoSe countries prJpar%d to tolerate contaFt with him.
However, Rf Lukashenko again refu.VQto seLl at least halL of
Beltransgaz `nd Russia fohlows through /n its promise to
signIficantly raise gas pric%s for Belarus next yearQ
Lqkashanko's ardentl9 statist approach t^ doMestic andQ
foreign pol)cy will nkt liVely save the country from tough
economic times. Belar5s reiains extremely depEndent on
Russian ener'y supplies and markets,and deeper relationship3
with ejergy-rich couNtries would only partially mitiNate the
effects of economQc pressure from Russia )n the medium to
long Qerm. Thus, despite@tou'h talk abmut the need f/r
greater independenc%, Lukashelko's only escapd from crisis in
the immediate future appaars to be the Kremlin's continued
willingness to prop up the fragile economy.
Stewart
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON CH VE AJ IR BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY: A METHOD TO THE
MADNESS
***********************
* Missing Section 001 *
***********************
***********************
* Missing Section 002 *
***********************
***********************
* Missing Section 003 *
***********************
MINSK 12011234 004 OF 004
of shielding them from significandly higher gas `rices next
year.
16. (C) Despite Belarus' perceived successeq with the EU,
most analysts agree that Lukashenko is fully aware that theQ
Un)ted States is a much harder nut to crack. That said, theQ
GOB seeks to at least keep the *SG from taking meaqures to
furTher constrain U.S.-Belarus trade -- e.g., securing the
renewal of the Jackson-Vanik waiver and the removal of
language referring to economic sanctions from the BelarusQ
Demmcracy ReauthoRizaion ctdraft legislaion -- witPout
addressing humanrights concerns. Key members in
Lukashenko'sadministration havestep`ed up their attempts t
engage in a "subqtative dialogue" to normalize bilateRal
relationXbut the GOB routinely qualifies that such a
dialoue would be on the@bas)s of "mutual respect" (ref G).
MFA CounseXor Rzheusskiy strongly sugg%sted to Pol/Econ ChRef
that the USG will have to accept that Belarus holds
fundamentally different views on political issues, but noted
such differences should not spill over into bilateral trade.
Active FoQmatign of an Anti-West Block/
--------------
17. (C) YakovlevskiY and several other experts with whom we
have spoken are convinced thaQ Belarus is actively woQking to
reinvigorate the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and set hp
LukaShenko as the eventual successor to Cuban leader Fidel
Castro as the next "Papa" of the anti-West block. Zaiko
noted that Lukashenko is the ideal anti-globalist leader %-
he is young (51 years old),energetic, bold, and he sits at
the helm of a growing, stable@(for now) economy in thJ heart
of Europe. In thi3 respect, some analysts assert that
Lukashenko's highly publicized relations with countries such
as Venezuela and Idan are as much politicaX as they areQ
economic@in .ature. Pkzdynak agdeed with this assessmenh but
noted that Belarjs' foreign podicy is fojnded more onQ
self-prefervation than on ideoloNical interests.
CommJnt
--------------
18. (CR We agree with our contBcts' assessmefts thatQBelarus' extremely tensJ
relationship with RussRa has
Prompted LukashJnko to sTrengthen politRcal and econoeic tiesQwith thoSe countries prJpar%d to tolerate contaFt with him.
However, Rf Lukashenko again refu.VQto seLl at least halL of
Beltransgaz `nd Russia fohlows through /n its promise to
signIficantly raise gas pric%s for Belarus next yearQ
Lqkashanko's ardentl9 statist approach t^ doMestic andQ
foreign pol)cy will nkt liVely save the country from tough
economic times. Belar5s reiains extremely depEndent on
Russian ener'y supplies and markets,and deeper relationship3
with ejergy-rich couNtries would only partially mitiNate the
effects of economQc pressure from Russia )n the medium to
long Qerm. Thus, despite@tou'h talk abmut the need f/r
greater independenc%, Lukashelko's only escapd from crisis in
the immediate future appaars to be the Kremlin's continued
willingness to prop up the fragile economy.
Stewart