FUJIMORISTAS LOOKING FORWARD TO COOPERATING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002415

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV KCRM PINR PE
SUBJECT: FUJIMORISTAS LOOKING FORWARD TO COOPERATING WITH
GARCIA GOVERNMENT IN RETURN FOR "IMPARTIALITY"

Classified By: Polcouns...

id: 68387
date: 6/16/2006 16:39
refid: 06LIMA2415
origin: Embassy Lima
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination:
header:
VZCZCXYZ0014
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #2415/01 1671639
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161639Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1052
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3570
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9603
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN QUITO 0466
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0654
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6845
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4285
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL


-------------- header ends --------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002415

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV KCRM PINR PE
SUBJECT: FUJIMORISTAS LOOKING FORWARD TO COOPERATING WITH
GARCIA GOVERNMENT IN RETURN FOR "IMPARTIALITY"

Classified By: Polcouns Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Legislators-elect Keiko and Santiago
Fujimori, in a 6/12 meeting with Polcouns, said that their
13-member congressional bloc would be disciplined, and is
prepared to work constructively with the incoming Garcia
government in return for an end to "political persecution"
and "impartiality" in the legal treatment of ex-President
Alberto Fujimori. The Fujimoristas praised President-elect
Alan Garcia's political acumen, thought that they could reach
an arrangement with him that would satisfy both parties, and
expected the Apristas would continue to detach legislators
elected on Ollanta Humala's Union por el Peru (UPP) ticket.
They expressed concern, however, over the social situation in
isolated rural areas, particularly in the pro-Humala south,
which they thought could be incited to violence by Humala or
his followers. They doubted that the Garcia administration
would have the time or capability to adequately address these
demands in time to affect the November regional/municipal
elections. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Polcouns met for 90 minutes with legislators-elect
Keiko and Santiago Fujimori, who were accompanied by former
minister and President of Congress Jaime Yoshiyama, at
Santiago Fujimori's office on 6/12. In a wide-ranging
discussion, the Fujimoristas addressed the following issues:

-- RELATIONS WITH THE GARCIA GOVERNMENT: Keiko and Santiago
were confident that the 13-member Fujimorista legislative
bloc will remain loyal and disciplined, thereby providing
them with significant leverage in a divisive and
inexperienced Congress. They hope to have a "constructive"
relationship with the incoming Garcia Government, and will
support policies that promote fiscal responsibility,
increased foreign and domestic investment, free markets and
free trade (including implementation of the Free Trade
Agreement - Keiko said that she would ask her father to phone
current Fujimorista legislator Marta Moyano to ensure that
she backs the FTA),increased compensation for "losers" in
the FTA, particularly in the agricultural sector, and
augmented social spending, especially in rural areas. In
return, they expect an end to the "political persecution" of
Fujimoristas carried out under the current administration of
President Alejandro Toledo, as well as "impartial" treatment
for ex-President Alberto Fujimori in the extradition and
criminal cases against him. Santiago declared that an ideal
solution would be a deal under which Alberto could return to
Peru and help siphon off votes from Humala in the November
regional/municipal elections. Keiko commented that she
doubted Garcia's ego would countenance her father's presence
in Peru, but Santiago rejoined that he thought an arrangement
could be worked out.

-- PRAISE FOR GARCIA: Yoshiyama was effuse with praise for
Garcia's and the Apristas' political acumen. He noted that
the President-elect is not/not one to bear grudges, and,
despite having been the focus of criminal proceedings by the
Fujimori Government, has let the Fujimoristas know that they
will not/not face similar treatment under his government
(NOTE: Keiko, Santiago and Yoshiyama have all faced criminal
processes since Alberto went into exile, and Santiago
currently is prohibited from leaving the country in
connection with criminal charges related to the purchase of
the presidential jet. END NOTE). Keiko and Santiago agreed
that Garcia and his followers are adept at negotiating with
other political forces, and put political expediency ahead of
ideological or moral purity. Keiko said that the
Fujimoristas are open to talks with the Apristas, while
Santiago and Yoshiyama indicated that such talks are already
underway, the latter naming several former Fujimori-era
officials who could serve as ministers under Garcia.

-- BUT CONCERN ABOUT APRA'S CAPABILITIES: Santiago thought
that Garcia's stated policies of political inclusion,
government austerity, openness to globalization and the world
economy, and increased social programs for marginalized areas
were the right way to go, but expressed doubts that the
President-elect has the time or human resources necessary to
make an impact in time to affect the regional/municipal
elections. The APRA leader needs to start to build a
supporting political coalition now, he commented, rather than
wait until his inauguration. If he does not, Santiago
warned, the earliest that Congress (which takes office on
July 28 and traditionally spends the first month of each

opening session bargaining over committee chairmanships)
could organize itself to act would be September-October. He
also doubted that APRA has the human resources necessary to
adequately staff the technocrat positions needed to
effectively implement the needed social policies, adding that
Garcia's vow to halve GOP salaries at the upper and
managerial levels would have a negative impact on recruiting
talented professionals. If Garcia staffs these jobs with
APRA hacks, he warned, his presidency will be an even bigger
disaster than his first term.

-- THE HUMALA FACTOR: Yoshiyama, referring to the
announcement earlier that day that three UPP
congressmen-elect had split from the Humalista bloc (Septel),
said that it was to be expected that Humala's congressional
delegation would fracture given its impromtu formation and
the quality of its members. He explained that many of
Humala's rural representatives at one time or another were in
the Fujimorista ranks, and characterized most of them as
unreliable "trash" who will graze where the grass is
greenest. Santiago agreed with this assessment, but worried
that Humala will always have the temptation to radicalize his
approach and incite his followers to demonstrations or acts
of violence, and that a shedding of congressional
representatives could spur him to adopt this course. He
characterized the south as a time bomb that could explode at
any time, while Keiko said that other isolated and
marginalized rural areas are just as discontented. She
expressed concern that Humalistas could win the regional
elections in the 15 departments taken by Humala in the
presidential second round, adding that the Fujimoristas would
present rival candidates in those regions and municipalities
where they could find nominees of unquestioned quality and
probity.


3. (C) COMMENT: The Fujimoristas know that their 13-member
congressional bloc gives them a strong card to play in
negotiations with the Garcia government, as they attempt to
parlay their support in return for an arrangement that
relaxes Alberto Fujimori's legal situation. To what extent
those discussions prosper remains to be seen. Santiago's and
Keiko's worries about the Garcia administration's time-frame
for action and capabilities to implement needed policies are
well taken, as are their concerns that Humala could exploit
frustrations in marginalized areas to threaten governability
and/or gain control over regional and municipal governments
there. END COMMENT.




STRUBLE

=======================CABLE ENDS============================