WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS WITH EVANGELICAL CANDIDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002071

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM PE
SUBJECT: WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS WITH EVANGELICAL CANDIDATE
HUMBERTO LAY

REF: LIMA 1765

Classified By: Polcouns Alexander Margulies. Reason 1.4 (d).

--------------
Summary:
--------------


1. (C) Evangelical Pastor and ex-presidential candidate
Humberto Lay stated that his party, Restauracion Nacional
(RN),is on track to score seats in the next Congress during
a meeting with visiting WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro on 5/17.
Lay noted the contrasts between his message and Humala's as
well as the irony that both battle for the same social
groups, humble Peruvians in sectors C and D. Lay said he is
engaged in serious talks with APRA presidential candidate
Alan Garcia, who has asked Lay to prepare his people to
assume a possible anti-corruption role in a Garcia
government. End Summary.


2. (C) WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro met with Evangelical Pastor
and ex-Restauracion Nacional (RN) presidential candidate
Humberto Lay on 5/17.


3. (C) Lay stated his firm belief this his party,
Restauracion Nacional, would obtain the minimum required
percentage of votes (4 percent in congressional races
nationwide) to gain representation in Congress. Lay said
that with 84 percent of the votes counted, his party had 3.96
percent and he was optimistic about the returns waiting to be
counted (many of which are from Lima, a base of support for
Lay). (Note: As of 5/23, Lay's party has crossed the
threshold and looks set to take three seats. End Note.)


4. (C) Lay described how his Christian values-based
political campaign got its start. Traditionally, he noted,
Evangelicals eschewed politics. Nonetheless, the moral
crisis Peru faced compelled Lay and others to found
Restauracion Nacional (RN) in 2000. In March of last year,
Lay said RN's members pushed him to run for President.
Throughout, his campaign was "austere," reaching only half of
the country's thousands of Evangelical Churches. But after a
late start, Lay experienced a last-minute boost in his
support. He opined that his campaign's success represented
an awakening for Evangelicals, and RN is now in the process
of preparing candidates for regional and municipal elections
in November.

--------------
Lay and Humala: Comparison/Contrast
--------------


5. (C) Lay discussed the chief irony of his campaign, the
contrast between his Christian-based message and rival
Ollanta Humala's implicitly authoritarian and violent
approach and the fact that both groups appeal to the same
social base. Lay noted that the base of the Evangelical
Churches lay with Peru's C and D social classes, i.e. working
poor Peruvians with an average income of USD 2 per day or
more. While Restauracion Nacional welcomes supporters of all
faiths, its base is among the Evangelicals and it draws
heavily from these groups of people from humble
circumstances. Consequently, Lay said his campaign mobilized
the poor with an "anti-system" message equal in potency to
Humala's, but with different ends. Where Humala is
authoritarian, Lay is democratic. Where Humala implicitly
promotes violence, Lay promotes solidarity. Nonetheless, Lay
shares Humala's frustration with the social exclusion and
upper class indifference that has promoted polarization in
Peru.


6. (C) As proof of the demographic overlap in support
between his candidacy and Humala's, Lay cited a recent Apoyo
poll that asked supporters of first-round candidates for whom
they would vote on June 4. Thirty-eight percent of Lay's
supporters indicated that they would go with Alan Garcia.
Even so, a substantial number, 24 percent, indicated that
they would vote for Ollanta Humala.


7. (C) Despite the inclinations of some of his followers,
Lay will not/not support Humala. He characterized a recent
meeting with the latter as "strictly protocol." Lay has
entered into serious talks with Alan Garcia about key issues
for the Evangelicals (Reftel). Lay stated that Garcia had
told him, "Go and prepare your people to do anti-corruption

work," an indication that the APRA candidate intends to draw
on Evangelicals' moral credibility in recruiting foot
soldiers and staff for the Office of the Controller General.
Lay is receptive to Garcia, whom he describes as a candidate
whose future "depends on his rehabilitation," a fact that
makes Garcia less harmful than Humala. Lay implied that the
RN congressional bloc would be open to working with a Garcia
government.
STRUBLE