WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS WITH COMMENTATORS/MEDIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002070

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM PE
SUBJECT: WHA PDAS SHAPIRO MEETS WITH COMMENTATORS/MEDIA
PERSONALITIES


Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies; Reason 1.4 (d).


1. Summary: (C) Visiting WHA PDAS Shapiro met with Peruvian
news media figures in an off-the-record encounter at the
Ambassador's Residence on 5/16. Participants described the
appeal that Union Por el Peru (UPP) candidate Ollanta
Humala's plainspoken authoritarian style had for rural
inhabitants and how Lourdes Flores' indecisiveness and
propensity to listen to bad advice had doomed her campaign.
They also noted the continued tendency for fragmentation in
Peruvian politics with new divisions appearing on the right
in the wake of Flores' defeat, and the profound splits in
Humala's base areas in the sierras and the south. Public
disillusionment with politicians could be a plus, they noted,
since this would ensure that any government resulting from
the present election would be subject to keen oversight. End
Summary.


2. (C) PDAS Shapiro met with Peruvian news media figures in
an off-the-record encounter at the Ambassador's Residence on
5/16. Those in attendance were: sociologist and commentator
Julio Cotler, "La Republica" publisher Gustavo Mohme, "El
Comercio" Director Alejandro Miro Quesada, RPP Radio News
Director Raul Vargas, and the host of the "Free Press" TV
news show Rosa Maria Palacios.


3. (C) The participants respected the appeal of Ollanta
Humala's presidential candidacy. Though Humala frightens
journalists and intellectuals like themselves, they
recognized that he possesses a clear appeal for the large
percentage of Peruvians who live in poverty and have little
to lose. As Raul Vargas put it, "Who is scared of Humala?
Fewer people than you may think."


4. (C) Sociologist Cotler spoke directly to Humala's drawing
power. Humala, he said, speaks to his audiences in direct,
military fashion, "just like an army officer addressing
villagers in the emergency zones (during the war against
Sendero Luminoso)." Cotler argued that this "common sense"
discourse of the tough guy/order-bringer resonated with many
Peruvians and was rooted in events that pre-date the
conflicts of the 1980s and 90s. Cotler in particular cited
Peru's educational system, which requires primary school
students to take dictation from teachers, as one key
institution that lays the groundwork for authoritarianism
among rural folk.


5. (C) Just as the participants noted Humala's strengths as
a candidate, they also noted Lourdes Flores' weak points. In
a post-mortem on her second failed presidential bid, all
agreed that Lourdes Flores "lacked leadership." They noted
that she had a poor campaign, bad advisors, and a weak
running mate in Arturo Woodman, a banker who was
all-too-easily tagged by Flores' opponents as a
representative of the rich. Rosa Maria Palacios specifically
brought up an incident during the campaign, which she
believed emblematic of Flores inability to make even simple
decisions.


6. (C) In discussing the post-election troubles of Flores'
Unidad Nacional alliance, including one party's abandonment,
Miro Quesada offered the sad diagnosis that now "the Peruvian
Right is becoming just as fragmented as the Peruvian Left."
This dual fragmentation will continue, they said, as Humala's
own Congressional group fractures after his likely electoral
loss. Furthermore, most of the rural regions that are
helping Humala -- areas high in the sierras and in the south
-- are themselves deeply split, governed by provincial
leaders or local "caciques." These are not factors that bode
well, he observed, for a coherent national politics following
the election.


7. (C) In closing, Julio Cotler offered the idea that the
disillusionment and cynicism one finds in many voters --
dismayed with the seemingly poor choice between Alan Garcia
and Ollanta Humala -- is perhaps a good thing. Cotler
offered that, "We need less glorious, epic demands, and more
such skepticism." Vargas added that this skeptical attitude
guaranteed that the next Peruvian government would be subject
to keen oversight, which would be positive.
STRUBLE