HUMALA'S IMAGE CONSULTANT ON DEBATE, CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002066

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: HUMALA'S IMAGE CONSULTANT ON DEBATE, CAMPAIGN
STRATEGY FOR THE STRETCH RUN

REF: A. LIMA 2039


B. LIMA 2036

C. LIMA 1974

D. LIMA 1851

Classified By: Polcouns Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Alejandro Pucci, recently re-appointed
image consultant for Union por el Peru (UPP) presidential
candidate Ollanta Humala, told Polcouns 5/24 that:

-- The Humalistas were delighted with their candidate's
performance during the debate, as he held his own against the
vastly more experienced Alan Garcia;

-- Humala's message during the debate and for the remainder
of the campaign is aimed at the poorest D and E economic
sectors;

-- The published poll results are skewed to favor Garcia, as
the difference between the candidates is at most six percent;

-- This means Humala can win if he manages to swing around
more than three percent of those currently planning to vote
for the APRA candidate, and the UPP campaign has several
"surprises" in store;

-- Humala's family continues to be his worst enemy; and

-- Humala's relationship with his fbQQt'S6Ii}+QSQBQday or less).
The Humala camp recognizes that appeals to the A-C sectors
might win votes from those portions of the population, but
would also alienate the D-E sectors and coQ/QQowever, ran into a crowd of Garcia supporters.
Consequently, Humala, accompanied by his wife Nadine and
Pucci, chose to walk to the Archeological Museum. While en
route, Humala stopped at a shop to buy some water, and when
he emerged he was engulfed by some 200 journalists and
cameramen. It then took 15-20 minutes for Humala to advance
through the media to the debate location even with a police
escort.


-- In mid-January, before Humala was beset by human rights
allegations and his parents' disruptive activities, the UPP
candidate's support was as high as 46 percent of eligible
voters in privately commissioned polls, before falling to 30
percent on election day. If he can recapture the 16 percent
he lost, it should be enough to defeat Garcia.

-- The published polls, which have Garcia ahead by 12-14
percent are being manipulated to favor the APRA candidate.
The difference between the two is really only about six
percent. That means a swing of three percent-plus from
Garcia to Humala will result in the latter's victory.

-- The Humala camp is preparing several "surprises" between
now and election day. APRA, of course, can be expected to
have its own "surprises" in store, which the Humalistas are
prepared to quickly respond to, just as they promptly
rebutted the allegations by imprisoned former national
security advisor Vladimiro Montesinos that Humala's October
2000 uprising was a smokescreen designed to facilitate
Montesinos' escape (Ref B).

-- Humala's chief enemy continues to be his own family. His
father Isaac's appearance at a print shop found to be
creating anti-Garcia propaganda (Ref C) definitely hurt the
campaign. Humala's relationship with his parents and
brothers is one of love-hate, while Nadine's relationship
with her in-laws is definitely hate-hate.


3. (C) COMMENT: We share Pucci's assessment that the
presidential race is closer than the 12-14 percent posited by
the most recent Apoyo and DATUM polls (Septel) and that
Garcia's lead is actually in single digits. The debate did
not appear to favor either candidate, with Garcia's appeals
aimed at the A-C sectors, while Humala's message went out to
the D-E groups. With both candidates planning full campaign
schedules over the final two weeks, the race likely will come
down to whether Humala can indeed recapture lost ground in
the poorest sectors while making some inroads in the working
class C sector, while Garcia will need to maintain his grip
on a sizable chunk of the D-E sectors while not alienating
the A-C voters. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE