HUMALA'S FRAUD CLAIMS STIR CONCERN OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002057

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: HUMALA'S FRAUD CLAIMS STIR CONCERN OVER
POST-ELECTION DISTURBANCES

REF: LIMA 2039

Classified By: Polcouns Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Union por el Peru (UPP) candidate Ollanta
Humala's warnings that his opponents may intend to engage in
electoral fraud has raised concerns that the Humalistas plan
to engage in disturbances and/or violence should the UPP
standard-bearer lose the 6/4 presidential balloting.
Electoral officials and the head of the OAS Observer Mission
have dismissed the possibility of massive fraud, with the
former challenging Humala to present evidence to support his
allegations. Meanwhile, APRA party candidate Alan Garcia has
tried to eke political mileage out of the claims, by
characterizing them as an admission of defeat by Humala.
While there were indications of some irregularities in
APRA-dominated areas during the first round of voting, they
were not enough to call into question Garcia's edging out
Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Ollanta Humala, following his 5/21 debate with Alan
Garcia (Ref A),issued a call to his supporters to volunteer
as "personeros" (legal representatives) to observe the
electoral process and counting of ballots at each of the
88,481 voting tables, warning that his opponents may intend
to engage in electoral fraud. To support his stance, Humala
cited Unidad Nacional (UN) presidential candidate Lourdes
Flores' concession speech, in which she said that her defeat
was, "at the voting tables, not at the ballot box," and UN
congressman-elect Javier Bedoya's allegations of
irregularities at some 1900 voting tables in northern coastal
departments dominated by APRA.


3. (U) Electoral authorities were quick to counter Humala's
claims. National Electoral Board (JNE) President Enrique
Mendoza declared, "There was no and there will be no
electoral fraud," and he challenged Humala to present
evidence to back up his charges. Mendoza added that JNE is
ready to respond promptly to investigate any evidence of
fraud, added that his organization is issuing new credentials
to electoral observers, and encouraged the UPP and APRA to
train and station personeros at each voting table. Office of
National Electoral Processes (ONPE) Magdalena Chu also
rebutted Humala's fraud warning, noting that ONPE will
closely monitor voting tables and will provide improved
training to voting table officials. Meanwhile, OAS Observer
Mission head Lloyd Axworthy, referring to the JNE and ONPE's
second round preparations, said, "We have seen that they have
made improvements for the second round and we are going to be
very vigilant."


4. (U) APRA party officials sounded the alarm that Humala's
statement was intended to pave the way for post-election
violence by his supporters, a theme that was echoed by
political commentators. APRA co-Secretary General Mauricio
Mulder noted that this fit in with the strategy followed by
Humala's "godfather...Hugo Chavez." APRA presidential
candidate Alan Garcia sought to gain additional political
mileage from Humala's comments, by challenging his opponent
to join him in agreeing to respect the election results,
adding that Humala's claims of possible fraud are
"unwarranted and malevolent," and reflect, "an anticipated
confession of defeat and a low state of morale."


5. (C) In a 5/17 meeting with Emboffs, pro-democracy NGO
Transparencia Secretary General Percy Medina said that his
investigators had looked into the fraud allegations made by
Unidad Nacional officials, and concluded that there were
indeed highly questionable results recorded at up to 1900
voting tables in three northern coastal departments dominated
by APRA. Specifically, he explained, the total votes for
Lourdes Flores at these locations were much lower than at
adjacent voting tables, while the votes recorded for minor
candidates positioned next to Flores on the ballots and tally
sheets were suspiciously high. Nonetheless, he concluded,
the votes in question were not/not enough for Flores to have
caught Garcia, although annulation of the results from these
voting tables would have reduced Garcia's advantage by
two-thirds, to about 20,000 votes.


6. (C) Humala's image consultant Alejandro Pucci, during a
5/24 lunch with Polcouns, said that the Humala camp was truly

concerned about the possibility that lower-level electoral
authorities and APRA officials would collude in electoral
fraud if given the opportunity. He added that the UPP is
engaged in a furious effort to recruit and train enough
personeros to ensure that it is represented throughout the
country on election day, but especially in traditionally APRA
areas.


7. (C) COMMENT: The possibility of massive electoral fraud
in the presidential balloting is minute, given the safeguards
built into the system and the presence of a sizable number of
international observers. That said, should the vote
difference between the two candidates be extremely close, we
can expect either or both sides to cry "foul." END COMMENT.
STRUBLE