EX-CANDIDATE PANIAGUA ON POLITICAL SCENE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002015

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2021
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM PE
SUBJECT: EX-CANDIDATE PANIAGUA ON POLITICAL SCENE


Classified By: Political Officer David C. Brooks for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)

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Summary:
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1. (C) Ambassador met with former presidential candidate for
the Frente del Centro Valentin Paniagua on 5/10/06. Paniagua
waxed pessimistic about the final choice of candidates
(between Garcia and Humala) and spoke ardently of the need
for "concertacion," i.e. broad alliance building, a process
which, no doubt, would require the skills of an elder
statesman like himself. Paniagua thought that his own
party's congressional bloc of 5-6 legislators would likely
stick together and laid out the critical issues facing any
new government (a spur for the Camisea pipeline in Cusco,
cocaleros, and radical teachers). He expressed concern about
Bolivian President Evo Morales' radicalism, which is creating
tensions between Bolivia and Brazil. "You can't play with
Brazil," Paniagua warned. The ex-candidate's pessimism was
in part driven by some sour grapes over his own poor showing
in the recent first-round presidential race, where Paniagua's
party gained 5 percent of the final vote. Despite that, he
remains an influential moral voice in Peruvian politics. End
Summary.


2. (U) Ambassador met with former presidential candidate for
the Frente del Centro Valentin Paniagua on 5/10/06 at the
Ambassador's Residence to discuss the political situation.


3. (C) Paniagua stated that the ongoing presidential race
was a very unique one. In particular, he criticized both the
media and the pollsters, whom he said had been far too biased
in favor of Lourdes Flores Nano, treating her as a sure thing
for making it into the second round, when this was not the
case. Paniagua averred that media bias toward Flores Nano
had backfired and benefited Humala. He believed that the
media was repeating the same error with the second round
campaign, that the journalists undisguised favoritism toward
Garcia would help Humala. Paniagua concluded that the
Peruvian media had reached a low point not seen in years
because the owners of the major media outlets were all
persons of "low quality."

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"Concertacion" Vital to Governance
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4. (C) Paniagua said that no matter who wins the
presidential race, the situation demands talks to build a
governing coalition (concertacion). He said that Garcia was
wrong to criticize Humala's efforts to reposition himself as
more centrist, that this only represented an admirable
flexibility on Humala's part that should be encouraged.
Paniagua acknowledged that Hugo Chavez' heavy handed
intervention in Peruvian politics had made Humala's task more
difficult. He warned, however, that Chavez enjoys great
popularity with the popular classes.


5. (C) In describing Humala's campaign, Paniagua said that
he did not know many people in Humala's Union por el Peru
(UPP) party, but some of those he did know he thought well
of. Some came from Accion Popular. Paniagua mentioned one
person, surname Estrada, who had been a Congress member with
him. He also said that Humala's economic team had some
capable members. Nonetheless, Paniagua acknowledged that,
unless Humala is elected, the UPP-PNP Congressional bloc is
likely to fragment. Despite that, UPP-PNP candidates will in
all probability do well in elections for regional
presidencies and municipal governments in the south later in
the year. This would be a good development, Paniagua said,
because it would compel Humala's people to learn how to
govern.

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Critical Issues Facing New Government
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6. (C) Asked about the main issues facing the new
government, Paniagua listed the following:

-Building a spur from the Camisea gas pipeline to Cusco so
that locals there feel they benefit from the natural
resource. (Paniagua is a Cuzqueno.)

-Dealing with the Cocaleros, who are well organized and
radical.

-Convincing teachers to accept the need for qualitative
improvements in education. (Paniagua said that the recent
elections for leaders of the new Colegio de Profesores --
elections in which SUTEP candidates are leading -- was the
education sector's "last chance for change.")


7. (C) Paniagua said that his own group, Frente del Centro,
was an electoral alliance not meant to be permanent. That
said, its members would likely stick together in Congress for
ideological as well as practical reasons and would conform a
strategically important swing bloc of 5-6 legislators.


8. (C) Paniagua returned to the theme of governability,
stressing that an Alan Garcia government would have to avoid
the errors of the Toledo Administration, reach out to experts
to fill the cabinet, and reach out to others in Congress to
form a working majority. Humala, if elected, would have to
do the same. Paniagua did not discount the possibility of an
APRA-UPP alliance.


9. (C) Paniagua concluded with some remarks about Evo
Morales. He said that he knew Morales and that the latter
was a man who only knew one way to operate: confrontation.
He feared the effects of a constituyente in Bolivia and said
that Morales and his people's lack of preparation made the
entire government dependent on Venezuela and Cuba for
assistance. (Note: In a 5/15 meeting with Ambassador, Peru's
Labor Minister, Carlos Almeri, told Ambassador that he had
recently become acquainted with Bolivia's new Labor Minister,
a man whom he said came from the union sector but had no
technical knowledge of labor law. The Bolivian Labor
Minister was on his way to Cuba for training. End Note.)
Paniagua saw trouble ahead for Morales. Short term populist
measures (like nationalizing the hydrocarbons industry) would
have a negative effect on his support. Paniagua added that
in undertaking the nationalization, Bolivia was entering a
dangerous phase. "You can't play with Brazil," he said.

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Comment:
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10. (C) Paniagua's pessimistic view of the media and the
polls have a lot of sour grapes to them. He was increasingly
ignored by the press as his poll numbers fell and emerged
wounded from the recent presidential campaign. Paniagua was
an elder statesman who was also an ineffective candidate
eminently lacking the fire in the belly needed to win. In
suggesting the need for "concertacion," he puts forward a
process in which, no doubt, he would play an important role.


11. (C) That said, Paniagua, despite his poor showing in the
polls, remains a moral authority in Peruvian politics. His
own ambivalence about the choice between Humala and Garcia
reflects the ambivalence of Accion Popular itself. The
latest Apoyo poll shows that people who voted for Paniagua in
the first round are now almost evenly split between Garcia
(29 percent) and Humala (27 percent). AP traditionally has a
strong base in the jungle regions, where Humala enjoys
overwhelming support. Paniagua has been a conciliator all of
his political career and clearly is discomforted by the
regional and class polarization of this election. He gives
the impression of someone who dislikes not only the
candidates he must choose between in the second round, but
the fact that he must make a choice at all. End Comment.
STRUBLE