Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LIMA1799
2006-05-09 22:28:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lima
Cable title:  

APOYO POLL GIVES CLEAR SECOND ROUND LEAD TO ALAN

Tags:  PGOV PREL PE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1799/01 1292228
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 092228Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0354
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 3360
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6721
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 9417
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY 3314
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 0311
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 0496
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 4240
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS LIMA 001799 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PE
SUBJECT: APOYO POLL GIVES CLEAR SECOND ROUND LEAD TO ALAN
GARCIA

REF: A. LIMA 1719


B. LIMA 1681

C. LIMA 1653

D. LIMA 1637

Sensitive But Unclassified, Please Handle Accordingly

UNCLAS LIMA 001799

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PE
SUBJECT: APOYO POLL GIVES CLEAR SECOND ROUND LEAD TO ALAN
GARCIA

REF: A. LIMA 1719


B. LIMA 1681

C. LIMA 1653

D. LIMA 1637

Sensitive But Unclassified, Please Handle Accordingly


1. (U) SUMMARY. A new poll by the Apoyo organization shows
APRA's Alan Garcia ahead of UPP candidate Ollanta Humala by
57 to 43 percent. Regionally, Humala leads in the central
and southern highlands and in the jungle, but Garcia is
solidly ahead in the north and along the coast, and leads by
a wide margin in Lima, 64 to 36 percent. When eligible
voters were asked in the same poll about their attitudes
toward Presidents Chavez of Venezuela and Morales of Bolivia
(who have associated themselves with Humala),both rated
strong negative perceptions -- so far, Peruvians see these
outside efforts to favor Humala as blatant interference in
their country's internal politics. END SUMMARY.

--------------
GARCIA MOVES STEADILY AHEAD
--------------


2. (U) Apoyo, Peru's most prestigious public opinion polling
institute, published on 5/7 the results of a nationwide poll
it carried out the previous week among 2,000 eligible voters,
the first such study done by Apoyo since Ollanta Humala and
Alan Garcia were certified as the candidates that would face
each other in the second round of presidential voting.
Garcia had a clear lead, by a margin of 57 to 43 percent.
The poll was in line with two earlier surveys carried out by
the Datum organization, which had shown Garcia leading 54 to
46 percent in a study carried out 4/19-21, and widening his
lead to 56-44 in a 4/29-5/1 poll. In each case, the spread
refers to the proportion of valid votes for each candidate.
About 15 percent of voters say they will cast blank or
spoiled votes for the second round on 6/4, and 7 to 8 percent
say they have not yet made up their minds about who they will
vote for.


3. (U) Voter attitudes have shifted markedly since shortly
before the first round -- a 4/2 Apoyo poll of a hypothetical
second round between Humala and Garcia showed the former
barely ahead, 51 to 49. There has also been a significant
migration in the important "rejection" index: 50 percent of
those polled said they would "definitely" not vote for
Humala, versus 37 percent for Garcia, close to the inverse of
results early in the year. Regionally, Garcia is solidly
ahead in the north and along the coast, while Humala leads in
the central and southern highlands and in the jungle. Lima,
with over a third of Peru's voters, favors Garcia by a 64-36
margin.

--------------
NO TO OUTSIDE MEDDLING
--------------


4. (U) Voters were also asked about their attitudes toward
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo
Morales, both of whom have associated themselves with the
Humala campaign. The negative to positive ratio for Chavez
was 61 to 17 percent, while the same breakdown for Morales
was 41 to 23 percent. Opposition by Peruvians to Chavez and
Morales has hardened over time. In a similar Apoyo poll
conducted in January, Chavez had a negative/positive ratio of
55 to 25, and Morales a ratio of 20 to 23.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


5. (SBU) Given the traditional volatility of Peruvian
politics, and the fact that the candidates have now agreed to
a face-to-face debate, the mood of the electorate could still
change prior to the final vote. Garcia seemed to sense this
in reacting to Apoyo's polling numbers, saying that APRA's
own private surveys indicate a closer race, and calling on
his supporters not to be crowing victory too early.
Apparently hoping to provoke another Chavista outburst,
Garcia also took the opportunity to once again criticize the
policies of the Venezuelan President, stating that he seemed
determined to destroy Venezuela's relationships with most
other Latin nations, and align himself exclusively with Cuba
and Bolivia.


6. (SBU) The trend in public opinion since the presidential
first round indicates that Peruvians are not inclined to seek
radical solutions to the country's problems. When a face-off
between Garcia and Humala was merely a theoretical
possibility a month ago, there was no clear preference for
either. Now that there is a forced choice between Garcia,
who is tainted by his earlier presidency but clearly
pro-democracy, and Humala, with his autocratic, anti-system
proposals, Garcia has moved rapidly ahead. Analysts here
have also pointed out that Peruvians resent what they see as
interference by Presidents Chavez and Morales by coming out
so strongly in Humala's favor, actions which seem to have
contributed directly to the latter's decline.
STRUBLE