EVANGELICAL CANDIDATE LOOKS TO THE FUTURE

UNCLAS LIMA 001765

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DRL FOR IRF OFFICE
G FOR LAURA LEDERER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: EVANGELICAL CANDIDATE LOOKS TO THE FUTURE

REF: A. 05 LIMA 4197

B. 05 LIMA 3415

C. 05 LIMA 3414

D. LIMA 1220

Sensitive But Unclassified. Please Handle Accordingly.

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Summary:
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1. (U) Ambassador met with Evangelical Pastor and
Renovacion Nacional (RN) presidential candidate Humberto Lay
on 4/26 to discuss Lay's analysis of the Peruvian political
scene. Lay proved to be the biggest surprise of the recent
(4/9) first-round presidential vote. He garnered nearly five
percent of the ballots cast, a level of support that
catapulted him from the ranks of Peru's many mini-candidates
up to the level of second-tier contenders like Martha Chavez
and Valentin Paniagua. Lay's group could yet score
congressional seats, though that possibility is fading. Lay
says that RN will run candidates in regional elections. One
key theme he stressed was anti-corruption. Right now, Lay
wants to build the Evangelicals' political brain trust. He
and his group are being aggressively courted by APRA. Lay
and his followers have come a long way in a short time and
should not be underestimated (Refs A-D). End Summary.


2. (U) Ambassador met with Evangelical Pastor and Renovacion
Nacional (RN) presidential candidate Humberto Lay on 4/26 to
discuss Lay's analysis of the Peruvian political scene. Lay
expressed satisfaction with his campaign, which he said had
struggled against Evangelicals' traditional disdain for the
immorality of politics and a late start. He noted that RN's
campaign only fired off on February 25, with a successful
50,000-person gathering at Campo de Marte in Lima.


3. (U) Despite the late start, Lay noted that RN had polled
just under 5 percent of the vote nationwide and had done
particularly well in some areas. Lay ticked off his vote
totals in some geographic regions: in the jungle (Loreto),he
got 13 percent; in Madre de Dios, 21 percent; in Huanuco, 8-9
percent. (Note: Embassy election observers working for the
OAS noticed that Lay polled 9-10 percent in Carabayllo, a
marginal, northern cone district of Lima. RN also had
observers in place at most tables, in contrast to other minor
parties.) In all, Lay was pleased. His party's immediate
challenge, he said, is to make the minimum number of votes to
gain congressional representation. Beyond that, Lay is
looking toward organizing for regional elections in November.
He said that RN would not seek alliances with traditional
parties, but might consider alliances with regional or local
organizations.


4. (U) Lay identified his biggest challenge as changing
Evangelicals' traditional disdain for politics as a corrupt,
worldly activity to be avoided. Beyond that, RN is also
looking to market its moral message to non-Evangelical
Peruvians, promising cleaner government. Not all of RN's
candidates in the recent election were Evangelicals, though
that group remains its base.


5. (U) Lay identified the issues most important to RN:

-- A law guaranteeing religious equality.

-- The fight against poverty, social exclusion, and upper
class indifference.

-- Corruption.


6. (U) Lay stressed corruption as a key point for the
Evangelicals. He lamented that corruption has become so
generalized in Peru, that it is expected. He cited the
popular cliche about former President Fujimori -- "he robbed,
but he got things done" -- as an example of how far the
country has fallen. Lay asserted that generalized corruption
would continue to plague Peru until the countries leaders
could provide examples of honest leadership.

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Lay's Connections with the U.S.
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7. (U) Lay noted that both he personally and his campaign
had had few contacts with their counterparts in the U.S. He
mentioned that he had met with members of "the Republican
Coalition" (the Christian Coalition?) in Washington, DC in
October 2005. He said the U.S. activists had "opened their
doors" to him, but that no concrete cooperation resulted as
Lay himself became submerged in forming up his party and
starting his presidential campaign. Lay stated that
education was the next big task for RN.


8. (U) Lay added that RN had run its own Institute of
Political Science before the campaign, to train up young
people in politics and the proper relationship between faith
and politics, but that this too had lapsed with the
campaign's onset. Lay said it was time to re-start this
initiative. Ambassador suggested that Lay give Embassy the
names of possible IV candidates and potential cooperative
activities with IRI and NDI were also suggested.

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The Fight to Get Into Congress
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9. (SBU) Lay said that he expected RN to gain four
congressional seats. He also alleged that RN's vote totals
had been subject to downward revision by Peru Posible
activists. (Note: RN seems to be giving up on crossing the
electoral minimum to enter Congress -- currently, with 70
percent of the vote tallied nationwide, RN is about 13,000
votes short of the 4 percent required for representation in
the Congress in their Congressional vote. In a recent move,
RN is arguing before the National Elections Board that the
party's presidential vote total, which exceeded their votes
for Congress, should be used to determine the party's
eligibility for the legislature. End Note.)

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APRA Helps/Courts Lay
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10. (SBU) Lay acknowledged that APRA had helped him by
providing him with copies of vote tabulations from various
precincts. Lay stated that future RN Congress reps would
work with other blocs, but would not engage in binding
alliances that implied support today for some undefined quid
pro quo tomorrow. Instead, he said, RN reps would cooperate
with other blocs in Congress on an issue-by-issue basis.
(Note: Help with vote tabulations is just one part of a charm
offensive that APRA has launched in Lay's direction.
According to sources in the Evangelical movement, APRA reps
are also offering speedy passage of a law guaranteeing
religious equality and the inclusion of Evangelical pastors
in the pre-inauguration ceremonies for the President-elect, a
ritual that has until now only involved the Catholic Church.
End Note.)

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Comment:
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11. (U) In other meetings with Poloff, Lay has said that his
campaign resembles Humala's, that he, too, is anti-system and
goes after the vote of those in the most humble social
sectors. Observations of his campaign rallies and his vote
totals in marginal areas tend to bear this out. It is likely
that his 4-plus vote percentage might otherwise have gone to
Humala or to blank ballots. Lay and his sector are likely to
exercise increasing influence in Peruvian political life.
STRUBLE