APRA CONFIDENT OF MAKING SECOND-ROUND RUN-OFF, SEEKS EMBASSY'S ASSISTANCE IN CEMENTING DEMOCRATIC COALITION AGAINST HUMALA

S E C R E T LIMA 001452

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PE
SUBJECT: APRA CONFIDENT OF MAKING SECOND-ROUND RUN-OFF,
SEEKS EMBASSY'S ASSISTANCE IN CEMENTING DEMOCRATIC
COALITION AGAINST HUMALA


Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d)
.

1. (S) SUMMARY: APRA party Co-Secretary General and
Congressman Jorge del Castillo, in a 4/12 breakfast with
Polcouns, said that the Apristas were confident that their
presidential candidate Alan Garcia would reach the run-off
against Union por el Peru's Ollanta Humala. Del Castillo
explained that APRA was looking to cement a coalition of
democratic parties to defeat Humala in the second round and
to promote governability after Garcia takes office. He
requested the Embassy's good offices in helping convince
Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores to concede once it becomes
clear that she cannot catch Garcia (Flores has vowed to
remain in the race "until the last ballot is counted") and in
establishing links to Christian evangelical candidate
Humberto Lay Sun, who captured four percent of the vote. END
SUMMARY.

2. (S) According to del Castillo:

-- APRA had legal representatives (personeros),who
witnessed and recorded the vote counts at practically all of
the 88,481 voting tables, and the reports they filed on the
results have Garcia holding off Flores, although the final
margin may be in the 50,000-70,000 vote range, rather than
the 119,698 reported by the Office of National Electoral
Processes (ONPE) in its latest vote count (Septel).

-- Flores and her Unidad Nacional (UN) team have much the
same information, and know that they have lost.

-- Nonetheless, Flores refuses to concede, vowing to remain
in the race "until the last ballot is counted."

-- On the one hand, Flores' position is understandable, as,
pushed by her spokesman, UN Congressman Xavier Barron, she
went out on a limb by proclaiming victory over Garcia on
election night and now has UN activists pressing her to hold
out until all the votes are in. (NOTE: Barron has since
criticized ONPE for not including the results from challenged
tally sheets in its vote counts, even though the law requires
ONPE to omit these results until the National Electoral Board
rules on their validity - See Septel. END NOTE.)

-- On the other hand, it could take three weeks for all of
the votes to be counted and certified. Three weeks is an
eternity in politics, and if the democratic forces remain
divided during that time, leaving the campaigning to Humala,
it will enable the latter to establish an unchallenged
momentum that will be difficult to counter later.

-- By Easter Sunday sufficient results should be in to
demonstrate clearly that Flroes has no/no chance to overtake
Garcia.

-- At that time, the Embassy could greatly assist the effort
to unite the democratic forces against Humala by using its
good offices to encourage Flores to concede and enter into
discussions with APRA on cooperating in the run-off campaign
to defeat Humala and on establishing a working relationship
and/or co-participation in the Garcia administration that
would follow.

-- The Embassy's assistance in establishing links between
APRA and Christian evangelical candidate Humberto Lay Sun
(who received over four percent of the vote) would also be
appreciated.

-- He (del Castillo) has already opened discussions with
Jose Miguel Morales, President of CONFIEP (Peru's largest
business association) on the need to prioritize cooperation
between an APRA government and the private sector in
addressing social needs in the rural sector: "We agreed that
failure to address these needs will result in Humala being
elected in the first round in 2011."

3. (S) Polcouns said that he would inform his superiors
about del Castillo's requests.
POWERS