ELECTION RESULTS (64 PERCENT REPORTING): HUMALA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001373

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS (64 PERCENT REPORTING): HUMALA
HAS MODEST LEAD; FLORES EDGING GARCIA FOR SECOND RUN-OFF
SPOT BUT IT IS STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL (CORRECTED COPY PARA
8)

REF: A. LIMA 1346


B. LIMA 1277

Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d)
.

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) With 64 of voting tables reporting, the National
Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) reports the following
results in the presidential race: Union por el Peru's (UPP)
Ollanta Humala 24.9 percent, Unidad Nacional's (UN) Lourdes
Flores 23.4 percent, APRA's Alan Garcia 22.3 percent. Humala
appears to have a lock on qualifying for the second round,
but the criticism leveled at him over the past two weeks by
political opponents and the media seems to have reduced his
nationwide support dramatically, making him vulnerable in the
run-off against either Flores or Garcia. Flores may be
slightly ahead at this stage in the counting, but the outcome
remains too close to call. ONPE has yet to report
significant results from the congressional races. According
to the Apoyo Consultancy's exit polling, however, APRA and
the UPP are forecast to run neck-and-neck for first, with UN
and the Fujimorista Alliance for the Future (AF) in a battle
for third place. Since legislators are elected on an
electoral district basis, however, UPP could well emerge with
the largest congressional bloc, with APRA a close second and
UN and AF far behind. The turn-out was approximately 90
percent, and the voting was free, fair and transparent, with
only a few minor irregularities and incidents (one involving
Humala). END SUMMARY.

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THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE COUNT
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2. (U) The National Office of Electoral Processes is
providing regular updates of its vote count (available at
www.onpe.gob.pe). As of 12:00 local time 4/10, with 64
percent of voting tables reporting, the results were:

-- Ollanta Humala - 24.9 percent
-- Lourdes Flores - 23.4 percent
-- Alan Garcia - 22.3 percent


3. (C) Moises Benamor (Strictly Protect),Deputy Chief of
the OAS Electoral Observer Mission, requesting that we
maintain strict confidentiality, told Polcouns 4/10 that the
results of the OAS election day quick count of a
representative sampling of voting tables were:

-- Ollanta Humala - 29.04 percent
-- Alan Garcia - 26.08 percent
-- Lourdes Flores - 25.59 percent

Benamor noted that the quick count's margin or error was one
percent, which made the contest for second place a "technical
tie."


4. (U) The pro-democracy NGO Transparencia also carried out
a quick count of a representative sampling of voting tables.
Its results were:

-- Ollanta Humala - 29.9 percent
-- Lourdes Flores - 24.4 percent
-- Alan Garcia - 24.3 percent

As with the OAS, Transparencia's quick count found the race
for second place a "technical tie," well within the margin of
error.

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THE CONGRESSIONAL RACES
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5. (U) ONPE is reporting the results of the congressional
races electoral district by electoral district (the 24
departments plus Callao, with metropolitan Lima lumped in



with Lima Department). As of 12:00 on 4/10, ONPE has
processed less than three percent of voting table results,
which are as yet inaccessible on its webpage.


6. (U) The Apoyo Consultancy, based on its election day
exit poll, forecast the following nationwide percentages and
likely distribution of seats. Congressional slots are
determined by the percentage of votes each party/alliance
receives within each separate electoral district, so the
actual number of seats won by each party/alliance can differ
markedly from the number their nationwide vote take would
suggest. According to Apoyo, the percentage of the
nationwide vote and the number of seats taken by each
party/alliance is:

-- APRA: 20.4 percent - 35 seats
-- UPP: 20.3 percent - 43 seats
-- Unidad Nacional 15.4 percent - 19 seats
-- Alliance for the Future 13.3 percent - 15 seats
-- Centrist Front 7.6 percent - 5 seats
-- National Restoration 4.0 percent - 3 seats

(Alliance for the Future is the pro-Fujimori party, the
Centrist Front is the alliance headed by former Interim
President Valentin Paniagua, National Restoration is led by
Christian evangelical pastor Humberto Lay Sun).

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MINIMAL IRREGULARITIES
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7. (U) OAS Observer Mission DCM Benamor termed the election
as transparent, "normal," and "peaceful," with no/no really
serious incidents and only minor irregularities. He noted
that the incident involving Humala (infra) made for
sensational press, but did not/not result in any injuries or
disruptions to the voting process. This positive assessment
was shared by ONPE director Magdalena Chu, the media, and
Embassy's 38 volunteers serving with the OAS Observer
Mission, who witnessed approximately 90 percent of Peru's
registered voters turn out for a festive exercise of their
suffrage obligations.

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HUMALA BESIEGED
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8. (U) Two Emboffs serving with the OAS Mission happened to
be on the scene when Humala arrived to vote at the Ricardo
Palma University in the upper-middle class Surco District. A
hostile crowd, initially numbering a few dozen, but quickly
swelling to several hundred, gathered around him. As
Humala's entourage attempted to guide him about 200 yards to
his polling place in the Engineering Faculty, the crowd began
pushing against his bodyguards, yelling "Murderer" and "You
are just like Chavez," while additional voters gathered along
the inner courtyard railings of the four-story building
hooting and shouting abuse at him. Although a robust police
contingent was on hand, it was not/not sufficient to control
the wave of outrage set off by Humala's presence and it took
almost an hour for enough reinforcements to arraive to
extract him safely. The episode resulted in a number of
broken windows and minor injuries to some members of the
crowd. As Humala left the building, he was escorted by
Venezuelan National Elections Council (CNE) President Jorge
Rodriguez, who was on the scene ostensibly as an
"international observer." Following this incident, Humala
held a press conference at his campaign headquarters where he
accused Flores, Garcia and President Alejandro Toledo of
being the "intellectual authors" of a "political ambush"
against him, but provided no/no evidence to back up his
allegations.

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COMMENT
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9. (SBU) The ONPE partial results, as well as the OAS and
Transparencia quick counts and the forecasts of the major
polling organizations, all point to Humala finishing first,




but obtaining less than 30 percent of the national vote.
This is in line with the Apoyo polling leading up to the
election (Refs),which showed Humala's support dropping
precipitously over the past few weeks as his political
opponents and the media focused on the anti-democratic
actions, contacts and pronouncements of the candidate, his
family and his entourage. Consequently, Humala looks
increasingly vulnerable in the second round against either
Flores or Garcia. The race to take on Humala in the run-off
remains too close to call, with the OAS and Transparencia
quick counts giving contrary results, both well within the
margin of error. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE