ELECTION UPDATE: CAMPAIGNS HOLD FINAL RALLIES;

UNCLAS LIMA 001346

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: CAMPAIGNS HOLD FINAL RALLIES;
NOW IT IS UP TO THE VOTERS

REF: A. LIMA 1277


B. LIMA 1199

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) Presidential hopefuls ended their campaigns with a
flourish, holding massive closing rallies on 4/6, the final
day for campaigning before the 4/9 general elections. Two of
the three leading candidates, Unidad Nacional's Lourdes
Flores and APRA's Alan Garcia, addressed their supporters in
Lima, while ultra-nationalist "outsider" Union por el Peru's
(UPP) Ollanta Humala stayed true to his southern power base
by staging his extravaganza in Arequipa. The final two weeks
of the campaign saw the mud start to fly, albeit in moderate
quantities, with most of the dirt aimed at Humala. Two
"private" polls leaked to international news organizatins
had contradictory results, raising uncertainty over the
electorate's volatility as it heads for the ballot boxes.
END SUMMARY.

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LOURDES FLORES
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2. (U) Flores' raly attracted what the National Police
estimated as 19,000 followers to the Campo de Marte park just
off central Lima. Her speech concentrated on the positive
message that her campaign focused on for the last two weeks:
that Unidad Nacional stands for a change with "serenity,"
offering a "certain path and a sure destination," vowing to
combat the marginalization of a large part of the population,
provide honest and efficient government, and promote growth
through enhancement of opportunities for small businesses.
Flores also took swipes at her principle opponents, warning
voters not to "hand over the country to adventurers and
improvisers" (an allusion to Humala),nor "to repeat the old
political, economic and social failures that only brought
more hunger and desperation and fewer illusions" (a reference
to Garcia's disastrous 1985-90 Government).

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ALAN GARCIA
--------------


3. (U) Garcia's rally attracted what the National Police
estimated as 15,000 supporters to the Naval Heroes Plaza that
fronts the Sheraton Hotel and Palace of Justice in downtown
Lima. He sought to position APRA as the principle political
force representing the center, between "the right wing of the
great capitalists, although it is dressing itself up
differently and assuming phrases at the last minute" (Flores)
and "a mendacious agitator and demagogue who recently, at age
45, discovered nationalism" (Humala). He also sought to
reassure non-Apristas that his government would be an
inclusive one, open to working with other parties and
staffing the bureaucracy with qualified technocrats. At
previous stops in Puno, Tumbes and Trujillo during the last
week of campaigning, Garcia delivered much the same message,
but added local riffs. In Trujillo, an APRA stronghold, he
paid homage to the party's martyrs. In Puno and Tumbes he
promised to create free trade zones and expand agricultural
credits.

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OLLANTA HUMALA
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4. (U) Humala closed out his campaign in the central plaza
in Arequipa before a crowd estimated by the National Police
at 4,500. The day before he held a rally at the Naval Heroes
Plaza in Lima, drawing an audience similar to Garcia's. The
UPP candidate was clearly on the defensive, dedicating a
major portion of his speech to address the numerous questions
and accusations raised against him and his followers over the
past two weeks, damning his accusers and claiming that the
mass media is engaged in an anti-Humala campaign on behalf of
the traditional parties and great business interests.


5. (U) Humala, his family and his entourage were the main

focus of attention over the past two weeks of the campaign,
with his political opponents and the media making hay over:

-- UPP spokesman Daniel Abugattas calling First Lady Eliane
Karp a "daughter of a whore," and accusing her of intervening
with the Israeli Embassy to prevent Peruvians of Palestinian
descent (Abugattas is one) from traveling to the West Bank
and Gaza. Humala removed Abugattas as his spokesman, but
rejected calls to kick him off the UPP's congressional list
for Lima.

-- Television commentator, renowned novelist, and
self-professed bi-sexual Jaime Bayly's claim that when one of
his staff asked Humala's father Isaac to appear on his TV
program, the latter responded, "Tell that faggot that we are
not going to go on his program and that when we are in the
government we will have him shot." This followed on Humala's
mother's comments in March that homosexuals should be
executed (Ref B).

-- Humala's claims that electoral authorities are conspiring
to commit fraud to prevent his election, pointing to the
latters' failure to provide a mechanism that would enable
on-duty military and police personnel to vote, and his threat
to have his supporters take to the street if this occurs.
Election authorities and OAS Observer Mission head Lloyd
Axworthy responded by dismissing the possibility of fraud.
Axworthy also minimized the importance of the affected
personnel not being able to cast ballots, noting that they
represent less than one percent of the national vote, and
that their dedication to security duties will enable the rest
of the Peruvian population to vote in safety.

-- Media reports published on 3/31 that at least three
retired military officers serving important functions in
Humala's campaign (Colonels Adrian Villafuerte, Estuardo
Loyola, and Luis Pinto) served in positions of confidence for
generals linked closely to imprisoned former National
Security Advisor Vladimiro Montesinos.

-- Humala's Second Vice President running mate Carlos Torres
having lunch on 4/2 with TV magnate (Channel 5) Genaro
Delgado Parker only a few hours after Humala vowed that
"shameless" media owners who owe the government millions of
dollars (Delgado Parker reportedly has debts to the GOP of
some USD 10 million) will be called on to pay up under his
administration. Humala claimed that Torres met with Delgado
Parker without his knowledge, and subsequently issued
instructions that UPP candidates and officials may not/not
meet with media owners or business tycoons without his prior
approval.

-- Humala's interview with Argentine daily "Pagina 12,"
which the Lima media picked up on 4/5, that if Lourdes Flores
wins, "What would happen is what happened to presidents of
other Latin American countries who were removed by the
people. I think that it will be very difficult for Lourdes
Flores to manage to complete one year of government."
Flores, Garcia and media commentators leapt on this quote as
signifying that Humala was prepared employ non-democratic
means to obtain power should he be defeated at the ballot
box. His critics generally ignored his qualification later
in the interview that any candidate "who represents
continuity" would last a year in office if they did not
address social demands.

-- Humala's involvement in criminal investigations. He has
been summoned to testify on 4/24 in the criminal trial of his
brother Antauro for the latter's leadership of the 1/1/05
Andahuaylas uprising. In addition, Tocache prosecutor Arturo
Campos has said he intends to call Humala to testify in
mid-April in connection with the allegations that he
committed human rights violations when commanding an Army
base in the Huallaga Valley in 1992.

-- Humala's admission that he was planning to visit a
factory belonging to Samuel and Mendel Winter, two media
owners who were convicted and sentenced to jail terms for
accepting bribes from Montesinos, and whose parole status is
being reviewed by a criminal court over their failure to pay
a multi-million dollar fine.


-- News that Salomon Lerner Ghitis, Humala's liaison to the
business community, recently met with the newly appointed
Chilean Ambassador to Peru, Christian Barros, in Santiago
raised speculation as to possible dealings between the
ultra-nationalist Humala and the country's southern neighbor.
Humala dismissed the importance of these reports, stating
that Lerner's trip and meetings were related to the latter's
business and had nothing to do with the UPP campaign.

-- Allegations that first surfaced on 4/5, charging that
retired Major Italo Ponce, a senior Humala campaign advisor,
visited imprisoned Montesinos crony Oscar Lopez Meneses in
jail to negotiate the conformation of UPP's congressional
list. The weekly "Caretas" published an expose on 4/7, in
which a witness, businessman Augusto Vega, claimed to have
participated in these discussions. Vega had been involved in
the UPP campaign until January of this year when he left, he
says, because of the Montesinos connection (NOTE: We have
also heard that Vega broke with Humala after being passed
over as a congressional candidate. END NOTE).

-- A 4/6 report by the news magazine "La Ventana Indiscreta"
in which retired National Police Colonel Cesar Mojorovich,
who was in charge of the local police station when Humala
staged his 10/27/2000 "uprising" in Locumba, claimed that
Humala's action was a sham designed to distract the
government's and public's attention from Montesinos, who
chose that same day to make his escape from Peru on a boat.
Mojorovich's account does not/not appear to add anything new
to these allegations, which have been aired ever since
Humala's "uprising" took place, but it does have the effect
of bringing this issue to the fore again at a critical moment
of the campaign. Perhaps not coincidentally, Mojorovich is
being accompanied by leading members of the Independent
Moralizing Front (FIM) party, which has been an outspoken
critic of Humala.

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THE PRIVATE POLLS
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6. (U) The Organic Election Law prohibits the public
diffusion of poll results for a week before the election.
This prevents the local media from publishing polls during
this period, but it does not/not prevent the polling
organizations or their private clients from leaking the
results to the international press so that the news gets back
to a Peruvian audience. Such has occurred with respect to
two polls carried out by the Apoyo and CPI consultancies.
The Apoyo poll was based on interviews in Lima and urban
areas taken on 4/3 and combined with rural results from the
poll published on 4/2 (Ref A),has Humala at 31 percent with
Flores and Garcia tied at 23 percent. The CPI poll, taken
nationally on 4/4, found a technical tie, with the top three
candidates within a range of less than three percent: Flores
27.6 percent, Humala 25.9 percent and Garcia 24.9 percent.

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COMMENT
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7. (SBU) With active campaigning at an end, it now is up to
the electorate to judge the candidates at the ballot box.
One unanswered question is whether the constant political and
media assaults on Humala will penetrate his Teflon shield and
wear away at his support (as the CPI poll reports and as the
previous Apoyo poll hinted was starting to occur - Ref A),or
whether his base of committed followers will remain unchanged
(as the latest Apoyo poll suggests). The other major issues
in play are whether Flores has managed to arrest or reverse
her steady decline, and whether Garcia can maintain his final
sprint for the finish line and make it into the second round.
The answers will come on 4/9. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE