Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LIMA1345
2006-04-07 18:21:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lima
Cable title:
VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: CRACKS APPEAR IN
how-toVZCZCXYZ0022 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHPE #1345/01 0971821 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 071821Z APR 06 FM AMEMBASSY LIMA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9648 INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3224 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6652 RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9292 RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR QUITO 0220 RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0394 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 001345
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: CRACKS APPEAR IN
APRA'S "SOLID NORTH"
Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly.
--------
Summary:
--------
UNCLAS LIMA 001345
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: CRACKS APPEAR IN
APRA'S "SOLID NORTH"
Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly.
--------------
Summary:
--------------
1. (U) During a 4/4-5 visit to the northern coastal area,
local observers told Poloff that APRA presidential candidate
Alan Garcia will likely carry Chiclayo by a narrow margin,
with Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores and Union por el Peru's
(UPP) Ollanta Humala battling for second place. In Piura,
Garcia may well lose to Flores, as dissatisfaction with
unpopular local APRA officials is dragging him down. The
north coast has traditionally been considered solid APRA
country, and Garcia is counting on a strong showing there to
carry him into the second round of presidential balloting.
Consequently, the evidence of wavering supper for APRA in
this region bodes ill for Garcia's prospects. End Summary.
--------------
A Swing Through APRA's "Solid North"
--------------
2. (U) Poloff visited Chiclayo and Piura on 4/4 and 4/5 to
gauge support for the different candidates in two regions
that have historically formed a key part of APRA's political
base in the so-called "solid north." In Chiclayo, Poloff met
with Binational Board members Luis Noriega (businessman,
construction) and Victor Vaca (attorney); Dr. Julio Hidalgo
of the local Ombudsman's Office; Lambayeque Regional
President Yehude Simon; Regional Government Technical Advisor
Juan Sandoval; editor of the local paper "La Industria" Ivan
Vasquez; University of Pedro Ruiz Gallo Rector Francis
Villena Rodriguez; and President of the Chiclayo Chamber of
Commerce German Fernandez Castro (raises fruits for export to
the U.S. and EU). In Piura, Poloff met with Editor for local
paper "El Tiempo: Rosa Laban; National University of Piura
Rector Antenor Aliaga and his staff; Dr. Eugenia Fernan
Zegarra of the local Ombudsman's Office; University of Piura
(private) Vice Rector Dr. Sergio Balarezo; APRA Party Piura
Regional President Cesar Trelles; and local "Radio Cultivalu"
Director Ricardo Castillo.
3. (U) Chiclayo and Piura are primarily dependent on
agriculture. Chiclayo produces sugar, though the industry is
very weak, hobbled by an inefficient series of cooperatives
that date from the 1968-74 Velasco era and depend on state
support for their survival. Piura's economic base lies in
agricultural exports (fruits like lemons and mangos as well
as paprika),a significant fishing industry as well as
petroleum production.
--------------
Chiclayo Seen Going with Garcia, But Barely
--------------
4. (U) Most observers in Chiclayo stated that the region
would likely go for Alan Garcia, but not by much. A
constantly-repeated refrain was, "The North is no longer so
solid (for APRA)." When asked to hazard a guess as to final
vote percentages in the presidential race, most locals
predicted that Garcia would win Lambayeque Department with
about 30 percent of the local vote, trailed closely by Flores
Nano and Ollanta Humala, who would fight it out for the
second spot.
5. (SBU) While most saw Garcia winning, Dr. Julio Hidalgo of
the Ombudsman's Office, a person with constant contact with
poor, marginalized Peruvians who have complaints against the
government, predicted that Ollanta Humala would carry
Chiclayo. Hidalgo noted several factors that had contributed
to Humala's support, including: opposition to the Peru Trade
Promotion Agreement from local sugar producers, whose
inefficient cooperatives survive on protest-generated tax
breaks and occasional state subsidies; the strong support
Humala has in rural areas; and the fact that many locals
trust neither Lourdes Flores nor Alan Garcia.
6. (SBU) Hidalgo echoed other local observer's comments in
both Chiclayo and Piura that most of Humala's supporters are
socially and economically marginalized persons who at a gut
level identify with Humala as a protest instrument, and may
have vague hopes to getting some benefit from him should he
become President.
--------------
Humala Has Captured the Left's Electorate
--------------
7. (U) Regional President Yehude Simon, leader of the
leftist Humanist Party (part of the Concertacion
Decentralizada alliance),lamented how the combination of
fragmentation on the left and Humala's populist message has
enabled the ultra-nationalist "outsider" candidate to rob
much of the left's natural electorate among the urban poor
and marginalized rural dwellers. Simon said that he knew of
middle class leftists so disgusted with APRA and Lourdes
Flores that they will vote for Humala. Simon himself plans
to vote for his alliance partner Susanna Villaran in the
first round, but stated unequivocally that he would support
Lourdes Flores in the second round because, as he put it,
"She is a democrat, not an autocrat (like Humala),and we can
work to correct her errors." Simon views Humala as a serious
threat to Peruvian democracy.
8. (U) In regard to Chiclayo's five Congressional seats,
most observers expected a split result, similar to that
likely in the presidential race, with APRA taking two
Congressional seats and the rest being divided between
Humala's Union por el Peru (UPP) Party, Paniagua's Centrist
Front and Unidad Nacional.
--------------
Could Lourdes Pull an Upset in Piura?
--------------
9. (SBU) The majority of local contacts in Piura said that
Flores was on the verge of upsetting Garcia. Ironically,
APRA's domination of the municipal, district and regional
governments is working against the party. The Regional
President, Cesar Trelles, has suffered politically from
scandals in his management of the government's "Glass of
Milk" Program, which provides free milk to poor families.
Two years in a row, the milk has been stored badly; last year
it soured and this year it was exposed to the elements before
delivery. In addition, Trelles has been criticized for
accepting a post as Garcia's local campaign chief while
serving as Regional President. He quit as campaign head
after the local Ombudsman's Office cited him for conflict of
interest. Finally, the Ombudsman's Office has cited Trelles
for mixing campaign activities with his duties as Regional
President. Ombudsman's local rep Eugenia Fernan Zegarra said
that Trelles appeared to be hoarding project funds so that
initiatives could be announced late in the campaign. Her
office also publicly cited Trelles for advertising
inauguration ceremonies in the newspapers with ads that used
APRA's colors (Trelles has stopped running the questionable
ads).
--------------
Rally to Rally, Lourdes Comes Out Ahead
--------------
10. (U) Dissatisfaction with local officials marred a Garcia
rally in Piura on 4/2. Local motor taxi drivers (drivers of
small-motor, three-wheeled vehicles that operate informally
as taxis) are angry with a municipal ordinance that prevents
them from operating as taxis. When Garcia arrived, the
drivers formed a protest caravan that interrupted the
beginning of his rally. In contrast, a number of observers
noted that a 4/4 rally by Flores went far better. She
attracted an enthusiastic crowd of 8,000 that was notably
young and female.
11. (U) A local poll taken March 23 and 28 puts Flores in
the lead with 26 percent of the vote. Garcia trails with 23
percent and Humala scores 19 percent. The poll measured the
opinions of 440 local voters who lived in 14 districts of the
8 provinces of Piura, an area that includes 67 percent of the
Piura Region's population.
--------------
Local APRA Officials Confident
--------------
12. (SBU) Despite evident public criticism, APRA Regional
President Cesar Trelles and his advisors waxed confident in a
meeting with Poloff. They were sure that Alan Garcia would
win the local vote with 42-44 percent, sweeping in as many as
three of the Region's six congressional candidates with him.
(The other Congressional seats, they said, would be divided
between Humala's Union for Peru, Lourdes Flores' National
Unity and Valentin Paniagua's Central Front.)
13. (SBU) The APRA reps spent a significant amount of time
describing how a second Garcia government would be different
from the first. Garcia, they said, had learned from his
mistakes and would not nationalize banks, permit high
inflaion or antagonize the United States this time around.
Garcia believes in "the Chilean model" of Socialist
Presidents Lagos and Bachelet, they said. APRA would also
govern in alliance with other parties. Trelles advisor
Victor Raul Trujillo told Poloff that he would not be
surprised if Garcia invited Flores to take a high post in a
future Garcia government.
--------------
Comment:
--------------
14. (SBU) APRA will need a very strong showing in its "solid
north" if Garcia is to reach the presidential run-off and/or
if the party is to win a plurality in the next congress.
Poloff's observations indicate that both possibilities are in
doubt, given Flores' apparent appeal in the region, coupled
with popular disenchantment for APRA's discredited
performance in its northern regional and municipal
governments. End Comment.
STRUBLE
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: CRACKS APPEAR IN
APRA'S "SOLID NORTH"
Sensitive but Unclassified. Please Protect Accordingly.
--------------
Summary:
--------------
1. (U) During a 4/4-5 visit to the northern coastal area,
local observers told Poloff that APRA presidential candidate
Alan Garcia will likely carry Chiclayo by a narrow margin,
with Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores and Union por el Peru's
(UPP) Ollanta Humala battling for second place. In Piura,
Garcia may well lose to Flores, as dissatisfaction with
unpopular local APRA officials is dragging him down. The
north coast has traditionally been considered solid APRA
country, and Garcia is counting on a strong showing there to
carry him into the second round of presidential balloting.
Consequently, the evidence of wavering supper for APRA in
this region bodes ill for Garcia's prospects. End Summary.
--------------
A Swing Through APRA's "Solid North"
--------------
2. (U) Poloff visited Chiclayo and Piura on 4/4 and 4/5 to
gauge support for the different candidates in two regions
that have historically formed a key part of APRA's political
base in the so-called "solid north." In Chiclayo, Poloff met
with Binational Board members Luis Noriega (businessman,
construction) and Victor Vaca (attorney); Dr. Julio Hidalgo
of the local Ombudsman's Office; Lambayeque Regional
President Yehude Simon; Regional Government Technical Advisor
Juan Sandoval; editor of the local paper "La Industria" Ivan
Vasquez; University of Pedro Ruiz Gallo Rector Francis
Villena Rodriguez; and President of the Chiclayo Chamber of
Commerce German Fernandez Castro (raises fruits for export to
the U.S. and EU). In Piura, Poloff met with Editor for local
paper "El Tiempo: Rosa Laban; National University of Piura
Rector Antenor Aliaga and his staff; Dr. Eugenia Fernan
Zegarra of the local Ombudsman's Office; University of Piura
(private) Vice Rector Dr. Sergio Balarezo; APRA Party Piura
Regional President Cesar Trelles; and local "Radio Cultivalu"
Director Ricardo Castillo.
3. (U) Chiclayo and Piura are primarily dependent on
agriculture. Chiclayo produces sugar, though the industry is
very weak, hobbled by an inefficient series of cooperatives
that date from the 1968-74 Velasco era and depend on state
support for their survival. Piura's economic base lies in
agricultural exports (fruits like lemons and mangos as well
as paprika),a significant fishing industry as well as
petroleum production.
--------------
Chiclayo Seen Going with Garcia, But Barely
--------------
4. (U) Most observers in Chiclayo stated that the region
would likely go for Alan Garcia, but not by much. A
constantly-repeated refrain was, "The North is no longer so
solid (for APRA)." When asked to hazard a guess as to final
vote percentages in the presidential race, most locals
predicted that Garcia would win Lambayeque Department with
about 30 percent of the local vote, trailed closely by Flores
Nano and Ollanta Humala, who would fight it out for the
second spot.
5. (SBU) While most saw Garcia winning, Dr. Julio Hidalgo of
the Ombudsman's Office, a person with constant contact with
poor, marginalized Peruvians who have complaints against the
government, predicted that Ollanta Humala would carry
Chiclayo. Hidalgo noted several factors that had contributed
to Humala's support, including: opposition to the Peru Trade
Promotion Agreement from local sugar producers, whose
inefficient cooperatives survive on protest-generated tax
breaks and occasional state subsidies; the strong support
Humala has in rural areas; and the fact that many locals
trust neither Lourdes Flores nor Alan Garcia.
6. (SBU) Hidalgo echoed other local observer's comments in
both Chiclayo and Piura that most of Humala's supporters are
socially and economically marginalized persons who at a gut
level identify with Humala as a protest instrument, and may
have vague hopes to getting some benefit from him should he
become President.
--------------
Humala Has Captured the Left's Electorate
--------------
7. (U) Regional President Yehude Simon, leader of the
leftist Humanist Party (part of the Concertacion
Decentralizada alliance),lamented how the combination of
fragmentation on the left and Humala's populist message has
enabled the ultra-nationalist "outsider" candidate to rob
much of the left's natural electorate among the urban poor
and marginalized rural dwellers. Simon said that he knew of
middle class leftists so disgusted with APRA and Lourdes
Flores that they will vote for Humala. Simon himself plans
to vote for his alliance partner Susanna Villaran in the
first round, but stated unequivocally that he would support
Lourdes Flores in the second round because, as he put it,
"She is a democrat, not an autocrat (like Humala),and we can
work to correct her errors." Simon views Humala as a serious
threat to Peruvian democracy.
8. (U) In regard to Chiclayo's five Congressional seats,
most observers expected a split result, similar to that
likely in the presidential race, with APRA taking two
Congressional seats and the rest being divided between
Humala's Union por el Peru (UPP) Party, Paniagua's Centrist
Front and Unidad Nacional.
--------------
Could Lourdes Pull an Upset in Piura?
--------------
9. (SBU) The majority of local contacts in Piura said that
Flores was on the verge of upsetting Garcia. Ironically,
APRA's domination of the municipal, district and regional
governments is working against the party. The Regional
President, Cesar Trelles, has suffered politically from
scandals in his management of the government's "Glass of
Milk" Program, which provides free milk to poor families.
Two years in a row, the milk has been stored badly; last year
it soured and this year it was exposed to the elements before
delivery. In addition, Trelles has been criticized for
accepting a post as Garcia's local campaign chief while
serving as Regional President. He quit as campaign head
after the local Ombudsman's Office cited him for conflict of
interest. Finally, the Ombudsman's Office has cited Trelles
for mixing campaign activities with his duties as Regional
President. Ombudsman's local rep Eugenia Fernan Zegarra said
that Trelles appeared to be hoarding project funds so that
initiatives could be announced late in the campaign. Her
office also publicly cited Trelles for advertising
inauguration ceremonies in the newspapers with ads that used
APRA's colors (Trelles has stopped running the questionable
ads).
--------------
Rally to Rally, Lourdes Comes Out Ahead
--------------
10. (U) Dissatisfaction with local officials marred a Garcia
rally in Piura on 4/2. Local motor taxi drivers (drivers of
small-motor, three-wheeled vehicles that operate informally
as taxis) are angry with a municipal ordinance that prevents
them from operating as taxis. When Garcia arrived, the
drivers formed a protest caravan that interrupted the
beginning of his rally. In contrast, a number of observers
noted that a 4/4 rally by Flores went far better. She
attracted an enthusiastic crowd of 8,000 that was notably
young and female.
11. (U) A local poll taken March 23 and 28 puts Flores in
the lead with 26 percent of the vote. Garcia trails with 23
percent and Humala scores 19 percent. The poll measured the
opinions of 440 local voters who lived in 14 districts of the
8 provinces of Piura, an area that includes 67 percent of the
Piura Region's population.
--------------
Local APRA Officials Confident
--------------
12. (SBU) Despite evident public criticism, APRA Regional
President Cesar Trelles and his advisors waxed confident in a
meeting with Poloff. They were sure that Alan Garcia would
win the local vote with 42-44 percent, sweeping in as many as
three of the Region's six congressional candidates with him.
(The other Congressional seats, they said, would be divided
between Humala's Union for Peru, Lourdes Flores' National
Unity and Valentin Paniagua's Central Front.)
13. (SBU) The APRA reps spent a significant amount of time
describing how a second Garcia government would be different
from the first. Garcia, they said, had learned from his
mistakes and would not nationalize banks, permit high
inflaion or antagonize the United States this time around.
Garcia believes in "the Chilean model" of Socialist
Presidents Lagos and Bachelet, they said. APRA would also
govern in alliance with other parties. Trelles advisor
Victor Raul Trujillo told Poloff that he would not be
surprised if Garcia invited Flores to take a high post in a
future Garcia government.
--------------
Comment:
--------------
14. (SBU) APRA will need a very strong showing in its "solid
north" if Garcia is to reach the presidential run-off and/or
if the party is to win a plurality in the next congress.
Poloff's observations indicate that both possibilities are in
doubt, given Flores' apparent appeal in the region, coupled
with popular disenchantment for APRA's discredited
performance in its northern regional and municipal
governments. End Comment.
STRUBLE