OAS OBSERVER MISSION AND ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES

UNCLAS LIMA 001344

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: OAS OBSERVER MISSION AND ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES
CONFIDENT THAT BALLOTING WILL BE FREE, FAIR AND SECURE


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SUMMARY
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1. (U) The heads of the National Electoral Board (JNE) and
the Office of National Electoral Processes (ONPE) told
Polcouns 4/6 that they were confident the 4/9 general
elections will proceed in a free, fair and secure manner.
OAS Observer Mission director Lloyd Axworthy concurred with
this assessment. Electoral materials have been distributed
nationwide, citizens drafted to man voting tables have been
trained, software to transmit vote counts from polling
locations to ONPE headquarters has been tested, over 147,000
police and military personnel will be deployed to provide
public security, guard polling places, and protect ONPE
personnel. ONPE plans to report 30-50 percent of the results
by midnight election day, and the OAS Observer Mission (to
which the Embassy is contributing 41 volunteers) and the NGO
Transparencia will also provide quick counts. While the
electoral process is expected to be smooth, the complexity of
the ballot itself could result in a large number of spoiled
ballots and challenges. END SUMMARY.

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ELECTION OFFICIALS POSITIVE
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2. (U) JNE President Enrique Mendoza and ONPE Director
Magdalena Chu told Polcouns 4/6 that they were confident that
the 4/9 general elections would proceed in a free, fair and
secure manner. Chu noted that ONPE has distributed
sufficient election materials nationwide and overseas to
serve Peru's 16,494,906 registered voters (457,891 in the
exterior); carried out training for citizens who have been
drafted to man the 85,971 voting tables in country (another
2510 tables are managed by Peruvian Consulates in the
exterior); will have sufficient officials at voting centers
to guide voting table members who missed their training
sessions; and held successful simulations on 4/2 of the
voting process and of the software to be used to transmit
results from polling centers to ONPE headquarters. Mendoza
said that the JNE, which supervises the electoral process and
resolves election-related legal challenges and issues, is
satisfied with ONPE's preparations.


3. (U) OAS Observer Mission director Lloyd Axworthy
(Canada) concurred with these assessments in a 4/6 discussion
with Polcouns. While acknowledging that there had been
tensions between the JNE and ONPE, Axworthy thought that
these had been resolved and foresaw a relatively smooth
electoral process. In prior comments to the press, Axworthy
stated that he expected the voting to be "complicated" due to
the large number of parties and candidates competing (20
running for President, while up to 24 parties/alliances are
presenting congressional lists in each of Peru's 25 electoral
districts),but completely discounted the possibility of
significant fraud and expressed his assurance that the
process will be fully transparent.

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POLICE AND MILITARY OUT IN FORCE
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4. (U) Gen. Jose Williams Zapata, Head of the Armed Forces
Joint Command, and Gen. Luis Vizcarra, Director of Operations
of the Peruvian National Police (PNP),held a joint press
conference on 4/5 to explain the GOP's security measures on
election day and provide a demonstration of their
organizations' cooperation. They announced that over 147,000
military and police personnel will be deployed on election
day to guarantee public security, guard and maintain order in
polling centers, and protect ONPE personnel as they collect
and transport vote tally sheets to ONPE headquarters in Lima.
ONPE Director Chu told Polcouns on 3/19 that she was very
pleased with the cooperation her organization was receiving
from the security forces, noting that both the Armed Forces
and the PNP stationed liaison officers at ONPE over a month
before the election to facilitate coordination.

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REPORTING ELECTION RESULTS

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5. (U) Chu originally announced that she expected ONPE
would be able to report 50 percent of the results in the
presidential race by midnight 4/9, although lately she has
cautioned that the actual total may be in the neighborhood of
30 percent. Eighty percent of the votes should be counted
within 2-3 days, she said, with resolution of the remaining
20 percent depending upon how long it takes vote tally sheets
to arrive in Lima from distant rural and jungle regions (a
week or more in the case of areas that can only be reached by
boat or on foot) and on the resolution of challenges to
disputed ballots by the JNE.


6. (U) The Organic Law of Elections provides that vote
projections can be published by the media and NGOs only after
ONPE divulges its quick count results, or after 22:00 on
election day, whichever comes first. The OAS Observer
Mission, to which the Embassy is contributing 41
officers/spouses as volunteers (14 in the interior, 27 in
Lima) plans to announce its quick count results, as does the
pro-democracy NGO Transparencia. Local pollsters and media
companies are also expected to conduct their own exit polling.

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POSSIBLE PROBLEM AREAS
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7. (SBU) Public security in isolated rural areas,
particularly where the Sendero Luminoso (SL) terrorist
organization is active, and voter confusion over the
complexity of the ballot are the two chief concerns as
election day nears. The massive deployment of military and
PNP forces is designed to ensure public security, but some
issues remain. Percy Medina, Secretary General of
Transparencia (which has placed observers nationwide),told
Polcouns that he is worried about rumors his NGO has received
that activists loyal to ultra-nationalist "outsider"
candidate Ollanta Humala, perhaps in collusion with local
mid-level military commanders, may attempt to pressure voters
or stuff ballot boxes. There are also reports that SL
columns have warned rural communities not/not to vote and in
some cases taken residents' identification documents, which
would prevent them from receiving voting materials.


8. (U) The complexity of the ballot itself could have a
substantial effect on the election's outcome, a concern noted
publicly by OAS Observer Mission director Axworthy. The
ballot is divided into three sections, covering the
presidential, congressional, and Andean Parliament races
respectively. The section on the presidential race contains
two vertical columns, listing the name of the party/alliance,
its symbol, and the photo of its candidate. The sections on
the congressional and Andean Parliament races each contain
four vertical columns, listing the name of the
party/alliance, its symbol, and two blank boxes for casting
"preferential votes." Voters are supposed to register their
votes by placing an "X" through the symbol of the party they
wish to vote for in each separate electoral race, and they
have the option of writing the identification number of up to
two candidates they wish to cast preferential votes for in
the two blank boxes provided in both the congressional and
Andean Parliament sections. (Note: Parties win
congressional and Andean Parliament seats in proportion to
the votes they receive in each electoral district -- 25
electoral districts in the legislative race, one national
electoral district for the Andean Parliament -- with the
candidates from the winning parties that obtain the most
preferential votes occupying the seats. End Note).


9. (SBU) The NGO Transparencia carried out a voting
simulation at USAID two weeks ago, in which the latter's
Peruvian employees participated. These employees have a much
higher level of education than the average Peruvian, but
nonetheless their confusion over the ballot resulted in 25
percent of the completed ballots containing serious faults
(wrong boxes checked, boxes circled, etc...) that could lead
them to be challenged or disqualified. Transparencia
Secretary General Medina commented that this result matched

SIPDIS
similar simulations his NGO carried out in marginal areas of
the capital. ONPE Director Chu, in her 3/19 meeting with

Polcouns, noted that her organization's public education
efforts have fallen far short of previous outreach programs
in the past due to budget cuts: whereas ONPE received 277
million Soles for the 2001 election, it would only receive
205-210 million Soles for the 2006 process.

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COMMENT
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10. (SBU) There is every indication that the electoral
process will on the whole be free, fair, transparent and
secure. Problems, if they arise, will probably be related to
the counting of votes, given the complexity of the ballots,
and to the very real possibility that the respective quick
counts and exit polls may provide widely divergent results.
As the presidential race is a hotly contested three-way
battle, we can expect the odd-candidate-out and his/her
supporters to challenge the admission/exclusion of
imperfectly marked ballots and the fairness of quick counts
and exit polls that rely on an incomplete percentage or a
small sampling of the national vote. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE