Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06LIMA1343
2006-04-07 18:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lima
Cable title:  

VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: APRA OUTWARDLY

Tags:  PGOV PINR PE 
pdf how-to read a cable
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INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3218
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9286
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR QUITO 0214
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0388
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6646
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4192
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001343 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: APRA OUTWARDLY
CONFIDENT, BUT THERE ARE CHINKS IN ITS ARMOR

REF: LIMA 1277

Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d)
.

----------
SUMMARY
----------

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001343

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: APRA OUTWARDLY
CONFIDENT, BUT THERE ARE CHINKS IN ITS ARMOR

REF: LIMA 1277

Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d)
.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) APRA party Co-Secretary General (and Congressman)
Mauricio Mulder, in a 4/3 lunch with Poloffs, was optimistic
that APRA presidential candidate Alan Garcia would outpoll
Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores and reach the second-round
run-off against ultra-nationalist "outsider" Union por el
Peru's (UPP) Ollanta Humala. He was also confident that
APRA's congressional slate would win a plurality in the next
Congress. Mulder's positive assessment of Garcia's chances
was based on the expectation that APRA will poll up to 45
percent in the northern coast departments, but our
observations indicate that APRA's support in this area falls
far short of Mulder's projection. In the second round,
Mulder was confident that Flores would back Garcia over
Humala. Should Flores make the run-off, Mulder said that
APRA's leadership would probably back the Unidad Nacional
candidate, but he doubted that more than 40 percent of APRA
voters would follow suit. On the Peru Trade Promotion
Agreement, Mulder saw little prospect for a congressional
vote before the second-round, and thought it possible that
the matter would be put off until the next Congress takes
office. END SUMMARY.

--------------
ASSESSING APRA'S PROSPECTS
--------------


2. (C) Mulder expressed confidence that Garcia would repeat
his 2001 performance and overtake Flores down the stretch.
He acknowledged that the APRA candidate's margin could be
razor-thin, but insisted that APRA's traditional "hidden
vote" (Apristas who do not respond accurately to pollsters
due to the party's legacy as a victim of persecution) and/or
Garcia's late surge coupled with Flores' steady decline would
see him through to the second-round. Mulder thought that
there would also be a "hidden vote" for Humala due to
inadequate polling in rural areas, but did not/not believe
that the same would be true for Flores, discounting Unidad
Nacional activists' hopes that rural women will defy their
husbands (who prefer Humala) and cast their votes for her.



3. (C) Looking at different regions of the country, Mulder
claimed that APRA is pretty much where it planned to be at
this stage of the campaign. To reach the second round, he
explained, Garcia needs to poll 45 percent in the north
(APRA's traditional stronghold),18 percent in Lima, and 15
percent in the south. They were exactly where they needed to
be in the first two regions, Mulder said, and were currently
around 12 percent in the south. Based on his own first-hand
observations in Puno, Mulder continued, Garcia's support was
growing there and would eventually reach the amount required.
Flores, he remarked, has no momentum going either in Puno or
in the north and seemed to be running out of gas. (COMMENT:
Poloff visited the northern coastal cities of Chiclayo and
Piura on 4/4-5, and left with the impression that APRA's
strength in these regions is at least 10 points lower than
Mulder posited, while Flores' campaign in both areas is
solid, albeit less than APRA's (Septel). Garcia held a big
rally in Puno on 4/5, which was well-attended. END COMMENT).


4. (C) Mulder took pride in having been an early advocate
within the party of attacking Flores and concentrating less
on Humala. Flores has weaknesses, he noted: her campaign
lacks charisma; at the most intimate level she has been
unable to connect with the basic desires and concerns of the
Peruvian people; her congressional list lacks political
heavyweights who can effectively campaign for her or counter
opponents' attacks; and she opened herself up to criticism as
the "candidate of the rich" by naming Arturo Woodman (a
business executive closely linked to the Romero Group, Peru's
largest conglomerate) as her First Vice President running
mate. APRA's strategy of focusing its attacks on Flores will
be intensified as the campaigning deadline of 4/6 nears.


5. (C) With respect to the congressional race, Mulder
thought that APRA would take 10-15 seats in Lima and have the
largest legislative bloc in the next Congress. He was
confident of securing re-election, and felt that other APRA
legislators from Lima seeking to remain in Congress would
also emerge victorious, including Mercedes Cabanillas, Jorge
del Castillo and, perhaps Cesar Zumaeta. APRA's repeat
candidates in the provinces may have a tougher time, he
noted, pointing out that some, such as Juan Manuel Figueroa
in Cuzco and Luis Gonzales in Ica, face significant
opposition within the party. Mulder acknowledged that APRA's
twelve Regional Presidents had somewhat undermined the
party's standing, but, he noted thankfully, APRA had managed
to limit the damage by expelling or disciplining the worst
offenders.

--------------
SECOND ROUND SCENARIOS
--------------


6. (C) Run-off elections in Peru tend to be very volatile,
Mulder said, and one should not put much credence in current
polls that have shown Humala beating Garcia in a head-to-head
race. Nor should one put too much stock in endorsements from
candidates who lose in the first round, he advised, as there
is no/no guarantee that these losers could influence their
erstwhile supporters in the second round. As for Flores,
Mulder thought that dealing with Humala would be an anathema
to her and her Unidad Nacional followers, who could be
counted on to back Garcia. Asked to think the unthinkable
and consider the implications of an Humala-Flores run-off,
Mulder predicted that the APRA leadership would side with
Flores, but that it is unlikely that the leadership could
carry more than 40 percent of the party's supporters with
them. (Note: The most recent Apoyo poll found that Garcia
voters would prefer Flores (48 percent) over Humala (25
percent) in a run-off between the two. See Reftel).


7. (C) In a 3/24 meeting with the Ambassador, APRA's other
Co-Secretary General, Jorge del Castillo (Mulder's chief
political rival within APRA),provided much the same
assessment as Mulder: that APRA could support Flores should
the latter and not/not Garcia make it to the second round;
that APRA's urban electorate would largely follow the
leadership's guidance; but that the party's rural supporters
would be much harder to control. Del Castillo also alleged
that Unidad Nacional was funding a particularly vicious
anti-APRA television spot ostensibly being run by the
Independent Moralizing Front (FIM) party (Septel),and that
he was planning on calling Flores to warn her that continued
airing of the ad would have a negative impact on APRA's
willingness to back her should she make the run-off.

--------------
ALAN GARCIA FEELS HIS AGE
--------------


8. (C) When asked how the 2006 Garcia compares with his
performance in previous campaigns, Mulder replied that the
APRA candidate is 56 years-old and feels his age. He is no
longer the "Caballo Loco" (Crazy Horse) of 1985, a
perpetual-motion machine who was determined to be involved in
every aspect and decision of the political process. Garcia
still keeps up an intense campaign pace, but he tires more
easily and has simply refused to expend the energy required
for proposed campaign swings through marginal areas like
Madre de Dios, Huancavelica and Yungay, even though, Mulder
grumbled, these trips could add a couple more seats for APRA
in Congress. He added that Garcia's fatigue factor would
have to be taken into account in designing a campaign
strategy should he make it to the run-off.

--------------
THOUGHTS ON PTPA APPROVAL
--------------


9. (C) APRA continues to view the Peru Trade Promotion
Agreement (PTPA) favorably, Mulder declared, but the party is
unwilling to vote on this in Congress until after the final
round of presidential balloting. He held out the possibility
that the PTPA vote would be reserved for the next Congress, a
stance that Mulder has discussed favorably in his public

comments on the issue. If Humala wins the Presidency, he
concluded, we can just forget the PTPA completely.


10. (C) Del Castillo, in his talk with the Ambassador, had
a more positive view of PTPA prospects, opining that it would
be advisable for President Toledo to sign the agreement
between the first and second round of elections, and that
this would permit Congress to consider and approve the
measure by late-June or July.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) With less than a week to go before the first round,
Mulder appeared content with the state of APRA's campaign and
comfortably optimistic that Garcia will make the presidential
run-off while his party will win a plurality of Congress.
Our recent observations in APRA's supposedly "solid north"
suggest that Mulder should be more concerned, as this is the
area he and his colleagues are counting on to provide their
chief base of support. Should Garcia finish third in the
first round, we can expect him to insist on some pretty stiff
terms in return for backing Flores in the second round. We
understand that influential political and business figures
are prepared to press Flores to agree to form a coalition
government with APRA in order to bring this about. As for
the PTPA, much will depend on the first round outcome. The
lower Humala scores, the better the chances that the current
Congress will agree to review the accord sooner, rather than
later or not at all. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE