VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: JUNIN DIVIDED, BUT

UNCLAS LIMA 001326

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: JUNIN DIVIDED, BUT
HUMALA HAS AN EDGE

REF: A. LIMA 1277


B. LIMA 1154

C. LIMA 658

Sensitive but Unclassified, please handle accordingly.

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Summary
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1. (SBU) In Junin Department and its capital Huancayo, the
commercial hub of the central sierra, community leaders told
Polofff during a 3/27-29 visit that ultra-nationalist,
"outsider", Union por el Peru (UPP) party presidential
candidate Ollanta Humala would likely win a plurality of
votes, but they expected a second round run-off. Reflecting
the country's electoral uncertainty, most community leaders
believed Lourdes Flores would place second, but would not
discount Alan Garcia and his APRA party upsetting her bid to
make it to the second round. Business and academic leaders
were confident of Flores or Garcia pulling out a close win
over Humala in a second round. However a popular, local
radio program director, expressed concern that "las masas"
(the masses) strongly favored Humala, and would carry him to
the presidency. Most characterized the region's rural areas,
central jungle, and marginalized urban communities as
Humala's strongholds. Community leaders attributed Humala's
support to a vengeful electorate that "had nothing to lose"
by voting for Humala and rejecting the self-promoting,
non-delivering political class. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Poloff visited Huancayo, the capital of Junin
Department on 3/27-29 to assess electoral trends in the
region. Junin has a significant mining and agricultural
sector and consists of a high Andes mountain region (sierra)
and a rugged jungle to the east. Poloff met with the Deputy
Mayor of Huancayo Oscar Risce, the Regional Vice President
Miguel Angel Garcia Ramos, 15-50 Radio News Program Director
Angel Unchupaico, Director Hector Mayhuire of local leading
daily "Correo", Rector of the National University of the
Center Jesus David Sanchez Marin, Program Coordinator of the
San Pedro Institute of Superior Education Juan Batista Privat
Gomez, Chamber of Commerce (COC) President Luis Alberto
Torres Garay, and COC members Marco Antonio Duran Condori and
Enrique Sifuentes Martinez. Poloff also discussed the
election with numerous residents on the streets and attended
a rally by Socialist Party presidential candidate, Javier
Diez Canseco.

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Humala dominant, but not invincible
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3. (SBU) All those interviewed predicted Humala would capture
the most first round votes in Huancayo and Junin. Reflecting
the bitter battle for second place, most community leaders
placed Unidad Nacional presidential candidate Lourdes Flores
in second, but would not count out APRA presidential
candidate Alan Garcia surging ahead to displace her and face
Humala in a second round. All observers predicted a very
close, contested race in the second round. Regional Director
for Correo said that in a second round he expected most print
media (national and regional) to be very critical of Humala
(with the possible exception of "La Republica" and "La
Razon"). Business leaders from the Chamber of Commerce said
the same about the regional business sector uniting to oppose
Humala in a second round.


4. (SBU) All observers agreed that the central jungle region
east of the Andes, which longed for Fujimori and the public
works projects that he brought to marginalized communities,
would overwhelmingly support Humala, rejecting the other
"known" politicians. Similarly, the community leaders
expected rural areas in the sierra to strongly support
Humala. Those interviewed said this rural and jungle support
for Fujimori would not/not transfer to Alliance for the
Future candidate Martha Chavez because Chavez rarely left
Lima to visit the provinces and she was associated with the
political class. (Note: Chavez is a Congresswoman for Lima
Department. End Note.) Observers characterized the
electorate in central sierra communities (population
centers),including Huancayo, as being more divided, with
Humala strong but with significant support for Garcia and

Flores. Some interviewees mentioned pockets of support for
Frente de Centro presidential candidate Valentin Paniagua,
based on his ties to popular former president Fernando
Belaunde. However, most agreed Paniagua's campaign had
little traction.


5. (SBU) The party of the Regional President, Unidos por
Junin (UPJ),formed a strategic alliance with Unidad Nacional
and endorses Flores. (Note: UPJ broke off from Paniagua's
Accion Popular before the last regional elections to form an
independent, regional party. End Note.) The Huancayo Deputy
Mayor Risce (of the APRA party) confessed that APRA was not
as strong in Junin as it is in Peru's North and surprisingly
estimated that Garcia was in third place in Junin. However,
Ricse characterized the support for Flores as fickle, unlike
Garcia's and Humala's. (Note: A water system concession
project proposed by the municipality is being actively
debated with strong opposition by some community sectors. On
3/22 a rally opposing the concession attracted 12-15,000
protesters, some burning doll effigies of the mayor. This
local water concession promoted by the APRA municipal
government could be a local campaign problem for the APRA
party. End Note.)

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Humala supporters - When you ain't got nothing, you got
nothing to lose
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6. (SBU) A recurring theme from the interviewees was that
Humala was capitalizing on the vote of people who feel sQ
marginalized that they have nothing to lose by casting their
lot with Humala; by some estimates, this is a majority of the
country's population. Interviewees said Humala supporters
are people disenchanted with politic who reject the
political status quo. They said the electorate perceives
that Toledo did not do enough to fight corruption, and that
he and his family benefited from his position. Also, though
Toledo created jobs and expanded the economy, those benefits
did not reach the sierra provinces. Support for Humala is a
reaction to these perceived government failures. The
Regional Director for Correo said Humala supporters were,
"voting with their livers" (emotionally) and not with their
heads. Chamber of Commerce members described the cynicism
that some sectors had toward Humala and politicians with the
saying, "Aunque (Humala) es otro ladron, es nuevo" (Even if
he is another thief, at least he is a new one.)


7. (SBU) Popular radio program director Unchupaico whose main
audiences are "las masas" (the masses) in and around Huancayo
said he perceived the Humala phenomenon as the product of a
young democracy in which the C, D, and E socio-economic
sectors (89 percent of the population) are not feeling the
benefits of the current economic model. He said this
sentiment together with a collective sense that politicians
and government institutions are corrupt, has led to an
extremist tendency in the poorer sectors and creates a space
for a radical voice, like Humala. Humala energizes this
population, which consists of the same people who supported
Fujimori and subsequently Toledo in past elections, and they
believe Humala will be firm, shake up the system, and satisfy
their thirst for change and a better life. Unchupaico
predicted Humala would win over 50 percent of the vote in
neighboring departments of Ayacucho, Huancavelica, Huanuco,
and parts of Junin. Unchupaico's unsolicited advice to the
U.S. and the future government was that these marginalized
populations needed "a lollipop, a drop of water, something"
to satiate them, or they would become even more radical.


8. (SBU) Several working women on the street (taxi drivers,
waitresses) told Poloff that there was a growing fear that
Humala could become president, and they and their friends had
talked, only half-jokingly, about leaving the country in that
case. (Note: This fear among some Peruvians, echoed in some
sectors of Lima is a relatively new phenomenon now that
Humala remains at the top of the polls and people are
beginning to analyze the consequences as the election draws
near. End Note.)

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Candidate visits to Huancayo - Humala drew the biggest crowd
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9. (SBU) The three top presidential contenders held rallies

in Huancayo during the last month (Humala on 3/12, Flores on
3/18, and Garcia on 3/23). All observers agreed that Humala
attracted the most people to his rally in the main plaza,
followed in size by Garcia and then Flores. Most observers
said it was clear that Garcia and Flores had bussed in
supporters from outside of town. Those interviewed said it
did not appear that the Humala campaign bussed in supporters,
but many of the attendees appeared to be there out of
curiosity. The size of the Humala rally is significant given
that it was on a day with inclement weather and was plagued
with rumors that Humala would cancel because of the
accidental death on the same morning of one of his top
advisors.


10. (U) According to observers, Flores was well received at
her Huancayo rally, almost filling the main plaza (La
Republica estimated 10,000 people). After her Huancayo rally
she traveled south to neighboring Huancavelica where she was
confronted by Humala supporters throwing rocks and bottles
and chanting "Ollanta Presidente". In Huancavelica, riot
police stood on stage to protect her during her speech.


11. (SBU) Humala previously visited Huancayo with mixed
results in early February, before submission of his
congressional candidate lists. University Rector Sanchez told
Poloff that Humala was invited to the National University of
the Center by a far left student organization. The speaking
engagement turned ugly, when Humala was shouted down by a
faction of his party who had voted for a list of
congressional candidates that Humala had rejected in favor of
his own appointments. The event, he said, was indicative of
the internal conflicts within Humala's campaign during the
development of the congressional lists.

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A Divided Congressional Delegation
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12. (SBU) Out of 115 candidates for Junin's five
congressional seats, most observers said UPP, UN, and APRA
would divide the spoils. Some observers believed a
Fujimorista Alliance for the Future congressional candidate
could win a seat given Fujimori's legacy of support in the
central jungle region. All interviewees said the Junin
electorate had a poor image of Congress and the candidates.
Deputy Mayor Ricse and others thought that the Junin
Congressional list for Humala's UPP party was prepared at the
last minute and filled with largely unknown, poorly qualified
opportunists. He characterized leading UPP congressional
candidate Edgard Reymundo as, "rabid".


13. (U) On one weekday evening, a diverse group of
approximately 300 supporters for UN congressional candidate
Hildebrando Tapia and Flores marched through the streets of
Huancayo. On the next evening a boisterous group of about 80
UN supporters chanted and danced on a street corner of the
main Huancayo plaza. A group of approximately 40 supporters
of UPP congressional candidate Reymundo and Humala, primarily
young men, gathered on the opposite street corner. Riot
police arrived but there was no conflict.

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Socialist Party Candidate stumps in Huancayo
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14. (U) Poloff attended a rally by Socialist Party
presidential candidate, Javier Diez Canseco, in Huancayo's
main square on 3/27 with around 1,300 attendees. Diez
Canseco's main point that incited the crowd was that it was
shameful for Peru to be so rich in natural resources and yet
to have such high levels of poverty. He highlighted the low
returns to Peru on the profits from natural gas and metals,
singling out the proposed Canadian Toromocho copper project,
where he said the returns to the region would be 0.51
percent, which he claimed was one-sixth of what was entitled
to the region by law. Diez Canseco said mining companies
were withholding some $350 million in profits and taxes from
communities. (Note: Though there are disputes regarding tax
assessments, there are no/no credible reports of mining
companies ignoring tax requirements. End Note.) He was very
critical of the Peru Trade Promotion Agreement (PTPA) saying
that it was not fair for Peru to compete on the same level as
the U.S. given Peru's lack of technology, deficient
infrastructure, and lack of government support. Diez Canseco

stoked the fears of the crowd about genetic resources,
claiming that Peruvians in the future would have to pay for
the genetic resource patents of popular herb "una del gato"
and "mate" tea. Diez Canseco said his priorities as
President would be education, health, and basic nutrition.

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Comment
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15. (SBU) Junin in some ways is a microcosm of the country
going into the elections - very polarized between the haves
and the have-nots. On one hand, a significant cross-section
of the population feels marginalized and betrayed by their
own government. They feel they have nothing to lose and are
willing to risk it all on a politically unknown, new face
with which they can identify. On the other hand, a sector of
the population wants change, but not radical change, and is
frightened by the prospects of a wild card Humala government.
End Comment.
STRUBLE