ELECTION UPDATE: FINAL POLL HAS HUMALA A SHOO-IN

UNCLAS LIMA 001277

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: FINAL POLL HAS HUMALA A SHOO-IN
FOR THE SECOND-ROUND, WHILE GARCIA LOOKS INCREASINGLY
CAPABLE OF EDGING FLORES AT THE FINISH LINE

REF: A. LIMA 1199


B. LIMA 1197

Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) Ultra-nationalist "outsider" Union por el Peru (UPP)
candidate Ollanta Humala maintained his substantial lead over
Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores in the latest Apoyo poll,
released 4/2, although his support fell for the first time in
nearly two months, from 33 to 31 percent. Flores continued
her weekly decline of one point to 26 percent, while APRA's
Alan Garcia gained a point for the second week running to 23
percent. Given that this poll does not/not reflect the views
of approximately 20 percent of the electorate living in
isolated rural areas, who are more likely to vote for Humala
or Garcia than for Flores, Humala's actual support is
probably higher, while Garcia's stretch run looks
increasingly capable of edging Flores at the finish line. In
the congressional race, APRA remained in front, Unidad
Nacional fell into a tie with UPP, Fujimorista Martha
Chavez's Alliance for the Future party surged into a close
fourth, while former Interim-President Valentin Paniagua's
Centrist Front and President Toledo's Peru Posible party are
the other parties that should surpass the four percent
nationwise threshold to place candidates in Congress. END
SUMMARY.

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THE LATEST POLL RESULTS
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2. (U) The Apoyo poll, published on 4/2, interviewed 2000
registered voters in 77 provinces around the country,
representing 81 percent of the Peruvian population, on
3/29-31. This is the last such poll that will be published
prior to the election, as Peruvian law prohibits the public
release of polls during the week prior to voting day. When
asked which candidate they would vote for if the election
were held that day, the response was:

Ollanta Humala 31 percent (down two percent since
last week - see Ref B)
Lourdes Flores 26 percent (down one percent)
Alan Garcia 23 percent (up one percent)
Martha Chavez 7 percent (no change)
Valentin Paniagua 6 percent (no change)
Others 7 percent (down one percent)

The results are based on the "valid vote" count, which
excludes votes cast in blank or respondents who did not name
a candidate. In the Apoyo poll, 84 percent of respondents
provided "valid votes," which are the ballots that the
election authorities will use to determine the final results.
This is up from 82 percent last week.


3. (U) The Apoyo poll indicates that none of the candidates
are likely to win a majority of the vote. If this holds true
on election day, there will be a second-round run-off between
the two candidates receiving the most votes in the first
round. According to the poll results, in a run-off Flores
would beat Humala 55-45 percent (a two-percent gain for
Flores over the previous week),while Humala would narrowly
defeat Garcia 51-49 percent (half the margin of the previous
week).


4. (U) APRA continued to lead in the congressional race,
with 19 percent support (down two percent from last week).
Unidad Nacional dropped one point to 16 percent, thereby
falling into a tie with UPP. The Fujimorista Alliance for
the Future party rose four points to 15 percent, the Centrist
Front advanced two points to nine percent, while Peru Posible
held steady at six percent. The Christian evangelical
National Restoration party, the centrist Alliance for
Progress party and the centrist Independent Moralizing Front
(FIM) party are at 2-3 percent, within striking distance of
the four percent threshold for electing a candidate to
Congress. The following table lists the support enjoyed by


each alliance/party. Our calculations as to the approximate
proportional number of legislative slots that each
party/alliance would take are the first number in the
parenthesis, while Apoyo's estimate of how many seats each
party/alliance would take, based on its analysis of
projections in each electoral district is the second number:

APRA 19 percent (28-36 seats)
Unidad Nacional 16 percent (24-25 seats)
Union por el Peru 16 percent (24-31 seats)
Alliance for the Future 15 percent (22-15 seats)
Centrist Front 9 percent (13-08 seats)
Peru Posible 6 percent (09-05 seats)

(NOTE: The congressional races will be decided on a
proportional basis in each of Peru's 25 electoral districts
(the 24 departments and Callao, with metropolitan Lima
grouped-in with Lima Department),rather than nationwide.
Thus it is possible that the final distribution of seats will
differ substantially from our rough calculations on a
nationwide basis and the Apoyo projections may be a more
accurate prediction. In addition, while the law provides for
a four percent minimum threshold for a party to place a
legislator in Congress, there is an exception for those
parties who manage to elect at least five representatives in
two or more electoral districts. Consequently, it remains
possible that a party with less than four percent of the
national vote could obtain representation in Congress. END
NOTE).

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COMMENT
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5. (SBU) Humala looks like a shoo-in for the second-round
run-off as he maintained a strong lead over Flores, although
his support fell by two percent over the past week, with his
margin over the Unidad Nacional candidate reduced from six to
five percent. The drop in Humala's support was based chiefly
on a five point decline in rural areas (he fell one point in
Lima and gained a point in the urban interior),however,
which does not/not have a clear explanation. It could be
that negative press coverage of Humala's followers, family
and campaign (Ref A) could be influencing this electorate,
but one would think that these developments would have a
greater effect on urban audiences. Another possibility is
that the rural polling performed by Apoyo on these dates
happened to concentrate on areas less partial to Humala,
leading to a misleading result (Apoyo claims a margin of
error of 2.2 percent).


6. (SBU) The race for the second spot in the presidential
run-off between Flores and Garcia is too close to call,
although Garcia looks increasingly capable of coming from
behind to pass Flores at the finish line as he did in 2001.
Nothing the Unidad Nacional candidate tries has yet proven
effective in halting her steady one-percent weekly fall in
the polls (a two percent decline in both Lima and other urban
areas, offset partially by a one percent rise in rural areas
over the past week). Garcia, on the other hand, seems to be
picking up the pace for his stretch sprint, gaining one point
for the second week running (a one percent rise in Lima and
urban areas along with a two-percent rise in rural regions).
With Flores' current margin a bare three points, a
continuation of current trends would favor Garcia's chances,
particularly once one factors in the rural vote not covered
by the Apoyo poll (at least 19 percent of registed voters)
and the "hidden vote" not reflected in the polls that Garcia
has demonstrated in the past. In 2001, Apoyo's final poll
also had Flores three points ahead of Garcia, only for the
APRA leader to finish 1.5 points in front once the votes were
counted. END COMMENT.
STRUBLE