VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: ANDRADE GLUM ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001065

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: VIEWS FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: ANDRADE GLUM ON
PANIAGUA'S CHANCES, WHILE MINOR PARTY CANDIDATES
CONCENTRATE ON CONGRESSIONAL RACES AND SEE HUMALA GAINING
STRENGTH

REF: A. LIMA 979


B. LIMA 348

Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies. Reason: 1.4(d)
.

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Centrist Front First Vice President candidate
Alberto Andrade continues to blame his alliance's
presidential candidate Valentin Paniagua for their campaign's
shortcomings and lack of success in the polls. Andrade seems
to be focusing on the congressional race, in which he
believes the Centrist Front will capture at least five seats.
Congressional candidates from President Alejandro Toledo's
Peru Posible party and the center-right Justicia Nacional
party are also focused on the legislative contest and see
ultra-nationalist "outsider" presidential candidate Ollanta
Humala gaining strength. END SUMMARY.

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CENTRIST FRONT - ALBERTO ANDRADE
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2. (C) Former Lima Mayor Alberto Andrade, the Centrist
Front's (FC) candidate for First Vice President and head of
that alliance's congressional list for Lima, met in late
February with Poloff. Andrade had a gloomy assessment of FC
presidential candidate Valentin Paniagua's chances (five
percent of the "valid vote" in the latest Apoyo poll - Ref A)
and predicted that the alliance's congressional vote would
clear the four percent nationwide threshold and elect five
legislators: including Andrade himself, Accion Popular
President Victor Andres Garcia Belaunde, and current
congressmen Alcides Chamorro and Eduardo Carhuaricra.


3. (C) Andrade repeated many of the complaints he made to
WHA P/DAS Charles Shapiro the month before (Ref B) about
Paniagua's faults as a candidate: he is "too serious,"
refuses to let his name be used as a slogan "Con Valentin
Habra Pan y Agua," and stubbornly refuses to speak Quechua.
Paniagua comes from Cuzco, Andrade explained, his father was
Bolivian and the family had a farm on which Paniagua learned
Quechua fluently. Unfortunately, he continued, Paniagua
hales from a generation that was shamed out of using that
language. The few times that Paniagua has spoken in Quechua,
Andrade enthused, the effect was "magical," especially on
indigenous women. If Paniagua would only use it, Andrade
concluded, Quechua could be "the Exocet missile" for the
campaign.

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PERU POSIBLE: JUAN SHEPUT
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4. (C) Juan Sheput, a presidential advisor and former Labor
Minister (he resigned to run for Congress) is sixth on the
list of 35 Peru Posible congressional candidates for Lima.
During a 3/2 lunch with Polcouns, Sheput recounted that he
had spent the previous two weeks campaigning in the poorest
sections of Lima, as well as making a short swing to Arequipa
and Puno on behalf of Peru Posible candidates there. His
assessment of the presidential and congressional campaigns
was:

-- The presidential race will come down to a run-off between
Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala. Humala controls the south,
with at least 60 percent support throughout the southern
coast and highlands; much higher than the polls report.
Lourdes Flores' lead in those surveys is meaningless with
respect to the final outcome. The polls are inherently
unreliable, and provide nothing more than a general
indication of the urban vote and do not/not reflect the third
of the population that lives in rural areas. The general
indication is that Flores is sinking and there does not seem
to be much that she can do about it.

-- Flores' problem is that her Unidad Nacional alliance does
not have the party organization or the congressional
candidates necessary to connect with voters. APRA, on the



other hand, has a strong party organization and its
politicians have come up through the party's ranks and know
what it takes to campaign.

-- For example, over the past week, while Sheput was
campaigning, he ran into APRA congressional candidate (and
party co-Secretary General) Jorge del Castillo and Unidad
Nacional congressional candidate (and former volleyball star)
Gaby del Solar. Del Castillo was in a bar in Huara (a small
town in northern Lima Department),in shorts and a Hawaiian
shirt, quaffing beers and having his picture taken with the
delighted locals. Del Solar, on the other hand, pulled up on
the main street in Villa Maria del Triunfo (a squalid
district on Lima's outskirts) in a new SUV, stepped out
wearing a designer pantsuit and wrap-around shades, dumped
off a disoriented student with a fold-out table, a few
bottles of soda and some pamphlets to distribute to
passers-by, and then roared off.

-- Humala only has to maintain his current base of support
to make the second round runoff and he should have no/no
trouble doing so. His appeal is not intellectual, but rather
one of feeling, and all of the negative publicity and
accusations regarding his possible involvement in human
rights abuses has minimal effect on his followers. The
infighting in his campaign has ended following the
registration of his congressional list, and he has plenty of
money and experienced political operatives (most of whom
formerly worked with Fujimori),which should see him easily
through the first round of voting.

-- In the congressional races, Peru Posible can win 8-10
seats. Half of those will be in Lima, with the rest likely
in Piura (base of the party's Secretary General Javier
Reategui),Lambayeque (where President Toledo is popular
thanks to his support for the Olmos irrigation project),
Arequipa (base of Congressman Gilberto Diaz Peralta),Ica
(base of Congressman Juan Ramirez),and Madre de Dios (base
of Congressman Eduardo Salhuana).

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JUSTICIA NACIONAL - CESAR CACERES
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5. (C) Caceres, a retired army officer running for Congress
on the center-right Justicia Nacional ticket (Jaime Salinas
is the party's leader and presidential candidate),met with
Poloff on 3/14. Caceres' focus was solely on getting elected
to Congress; his party's presidential candidate, Jaime
Salinas, obtains at most one percent support in the polls.
He said that his campaign is targeting the 32,000 military
that he believes will be able to vote in Lima on election day
as well as military families and retirees. He commented that
while Humala should overwhelmingly win the votes for
president of low-level officers and the rank-and-file, the
absence of retired military officers from Humala's
congressional list in Lima opens the door for pro-military
congressional candidates from other parties. Caceres said
that he is campaigning door-to-door in military housing
areas, pushing proposals for a Armed Forces Ombudsman,
increased pensions, and other benefits.
STRUBLE