THE FUTURE OF THE MALAWI CONGRESS PARTY

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS
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STATE FOR AF/S - GABRIELLE MALLORY
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: THE FUTURE OF THE MALAWI CONGRESS PARTY

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This is the first in a three-part series on Malawi's largest
political parties.


1. (SBU) Summary: The Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is
Malawi's oldest political party, and is the party of former
Life President Dr. Hastings Kamuzu Banda. They are currently
the largest opposition party with 57 seats in Parliament,
and have a strong political base in the central region.
However, the MCP must resolve a serious leadership challenge
and broaden its support base to other regions if it hopes to
form the next government in 2009. End Summary.


2. (U) The MCP, founded in September 1959, won all the seats
in Malawi's first elections in 1961, except the few reserved
for whites. It was the only legal party from independence in
1964 to 1993, when Malawians voted to end the one-party
state. Dr. Banda, originally from central Malawi, led the
MCP until his death in November 1997. In April 2003 John
Tembo, the party's current president, took over the party
leadership from Dr. Banda's successor Gwanda Chakuamba.
Tembo, a prominent figure in Banda's government and widely
acknowledged to have been the "party hit-man" for Banda, has
ruled the MCP with an iron fist since assuming control.

The Constructive Opposition?
--------------


3. (U) In the 2004 elections the MCP failed to win any
parliamentary seats outside the central region. However,
Tembo managed to consolidate the MCP's support in seven of
the nine central districts. In Parliament the MCP won more
seats than any other political party, fielding a number of
young, well educated candidates. However, the party lacked
an outright majority (having won just over 30% of the
seats),and was thus pushed into the opposition. John Tembo
also believes he won the 2004 Presidential election, which
most observers cited as flawed.


4. (SBU) At the same time, the MCP is finding it difficult
to establish itself in a constructive role as the opposition
in Malawi, and its leaders are grasping for ways to take
credit for issues they bring up. The most prominent example
is the perceived success of the past year's fertilizer
subsidy, for which the Mutharika government has largely
taken credit, despite the fact that it was Tembo who brought
the issue to the forefront of public debate and forced the
government to deliver a much larger subsidy than originally
planned. This has made the MCP even more mistrustful of the
government, and averse to constructively working with
Mutharika.

Challenges for the Future
--------------


5. (U) The MCP's failure to win any parliamentary seats in
the December 2005 by-elections (which were only in the North
and the South) strengthened the view that the MCP is
exclusively a central-region party. For the party to gain a
majority in Parliament, it must break out of its traditional
power base and win supporters in other regions of Malawi.
However, the challenge of expanding into the northern and
central regions is compounded by two factors: John Tembo's
leadership style and the growing attractiveness of the
President Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

A Problem at the Top
--------------


6. (SBU) Like most party leaders in Malawi, John Tembo
treats the MCP as his personal fiefdom. According to a
leading party `rebel' and MCP parliamentarian, Bintony
Kutsaira, the party's parliamentary caucus rarely meets, and
when it does it is mainly to hear what plans Tembo has for
the party. The party's shadow cabinet has only met once in
the three years since Tembo assumed leadership. The party
leader clearly does not value consultation, and often tries
to intimidate the party rank-and-file (he once told an MCP
MP who opposed him on a decision that if the man had done so
during Banda's time Tembo would have had him killed). While
older members of the party seem willing to back Tembo,
younger more ambitious members have been privately, and
publicly, complaining about his leadership over the past six
months. Unlike the older party stalwarts, the younger
members are not products of the era of unquestioning loyalty
that existed during Dr. Banda's regime.

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7. (SBU) Tembo is also a feared man, not only in the party,
but also in the country at large. This is due to his role as
Dr. Banda's right-hand man. Many opponents of the Banda
regime were thrown in jail or murdered, and it is generally
believed that Tembo played a hand those arrests and
killings. MCP parliamentarians who have tried to address
party issues openly have been rebuked by Tembo. A recent
unsigned letter purported to be written by 39 MCP MPs
outlined the dissatisfaction with the party leadership and
called for Tembo to step down. One first term MCP MP has
privately told Embassy officials that Tembo's leadership
style makes it difficult for aspiring leaders to come in the
open; thus it is only those who keep quiet who prosper in
the party.


8. (SBU) Respicious Dzanjalimodzi, the party's shadow
finance minister, seems a clear favorite to assume
leadership after Tembo. Dzanjalimodzi has strong ties to
the Banda family (his wife is Banda's grand-niece),is
respected within the party, and has proved his loyalty to
Tembo. However, the 73-year-old Tembo shows no signs of
slowing down, and despite the internal opposition, most
expect him to be the MCP candidate for President in 2009.

A Future MCP government?
--------------


9. (SBU) Tembo's main mistake since Mutharika came to power
has been his inability or unwillingness to make inroads in
the north and the south where support for other parties had
collapsed or weakened. Tembo's opponents, who include
Kutsaira and Zulu, claim that he is unable to campaign in
the north or the south because most of the people he
persecuted during the Banda regime were from the two
regions. Clearly Tembo's inaction has allowed President
Mutharika, with the help of government resources, to fill
the political vacuum up north and down south. In fact, even
within its central region stronghold the MCP is also facing
a strong challenge from the DPP. The fertilizer subsidy
program and a rural roads project have made the government
very popular in the agriculturally focused region.


9. (SBU) That said, while the party might be concerned with
the rise of the DPP, at this point it seems unlikely that
most rural central region voters would ever abandon the MCP.
But their support alone has never been, and will never be,
enough to push the MCP over the top. For this reason alone
the MCP must look outside of the central region-a challenge
which will be difficult as long as John Tembo leads the
party.

Key MCP Leaders
--------------


10. (SBU) John Tembo, MCP President, Dedza-South (Central
Region) - The 73-year-old Tembo spent most of his career as
the hatchet-man for former Life President Hastings Banda. He
now heads the MCP, though his cutthroat leadership style and
refusal to share power have led some MPs to call for his
resignation. Despite this, Tembo is expected to run for
President in 2009.


11. (SBU) Respicious Dzanjilamodzi, MCP Shadow Finance
Minister, Lilongwe City South East (Central Region) - Widely
considered Tembo's deputy and the heir-apparent to the MCP,
Dzanjilamodzi is intelligent and easy to work with. He is a
first term MP. However he spent his career in the civil
service, serving as the Principal Secretary in a number of
ministries before running for office in 2004. His
experience, along with his ties to the Banda family,
articulateness and well-honed political skills, have put him
in a position of prominence within the party. Respicious
admits that he expects to take over after Tembo, but is
careful to say that he doesn't know when that will be. In
the meantime, he is content to quietly back Tembo in
internal party disputes.


12. (SBU) Bitony Kutsaira, MCP Shadow Health Minister,
Lilongwe Msinja North (Central Region) - A leader of the
MCP's young `rebel' MPs, Kutsaira is a former confidant of
Tembo. Kutsaira has quietly been working behind the scenes
to push Tembo towards retirement. He admits that the MCP has
no chance of expanding beyond the central region as long as
Tembo is its leader. However, he is unlikely to lead the

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MCP, and instead could play the role of king-maker for the
next MCP president.


13. (SBU) Ted Kalebe, MCP Shadow Minister of Economic
Planning and Development, Lilongwe North East (Central
Region) - Kalebe leads the `rebel' MPs along with Kutsaira,
and serves as the most outspoken member of the group. A
career civil servant and experienced economist, he entered
politics in 2004. While Kutsaira is the brains behind the
rebel group, Kalebe is often the one out front. As such, he
is the more likely of the two to contend for the party
presidency at some point.



EASTHAM