MUTHARIKA TAKES ON MALAWI'S REGIONAL POLITICS

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SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S GABRIELLE MALLORY
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MUTHARIKA TAKES ON MALAWI'S REGIONAL POLITICS


1. (SBU) Summary: President Mutharika is attempting to
reverse Malawi's longstanding tradition of regional
politics by building the first political party with a
truly national base. Regionalism has always been a major
factor in Malawian politics, and shapes the prism through
which modern political life must be seen. Dr. Hastings
Banda's one party dictatorship struggled at times to
maintain the veneer of regional balance. However since
the advent of multi-party politics in 1994, regional
alliances have taken center stage one the political
scene. In order for President Mutharika's new Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) to succeed long-term, it must
reverse the tide of regionalism, and transcend
geographical associations. End Summary.

Regionalism: A Longstanding Tradition
--------------


2. (U) Since before independence, regionalism has played
an important role in Malawi. The reasons for regionalism
include the absence of ideology in politics; the lack of
a dominant tribe; and the growing confidence of second
and third generation Malawians in the southern region.
The negative effects of regionalism have had the greatest
impact in the northern region, as it is the smallest of
the three regions.


3. (U) Dr. Hastings Banda's one party dictatorship was
able to mask regional inequality, as he gave senior
appointments in his Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and in
government to politicians from all three regions.
However, this relative equality at higher levels was not
duplicated with the general public. Thus, throughout
Banda's rule there was a general feeling that the central
region, which was his political base, was most favored by
the regime.

Northerners and Southerners Need Not Apply
--------------


4. (U) The anti-Banda sentiment in the north and south
was a result of the regime's policy of systematic ethnic
discrimination against Malawians of northern origin and,
to a lesser extent, against those from selected groups in
the southern region. For instance, the majority of
political detainees were from the north and the south.
Between the 1970s and early 1990s, the civil service, the
university, several government departments and Parastatal
organizations were purged of northerners.


5. (U) In 1989, a quota system was introduced in
university selection to restrict the number of
northerners attaining higher educational qualifications.
Before 1989, the northern region, with just about 11 per
cent of the country's population, accounted for half of
university entrants - largely due to the higher quality
of schools established in the region by Scottish
Presbyterian missionaries during the colonial era. With
the quota system each district was guaranteed 10 places
in the university, and should there be any spaces
remaining, they were occupied according to population
distribution. Given that the north had 5 sparsely
populated districts, against 9 in the centre and the then
10 in the south, this led to a major reduction in the
number of northerners making it to university.

Banda Repression Prompted Regional Split
--------------


6. (U) As a result of these policies, many northerners
and southerners were resentful of the Banda regime; thus
they challenged the MCP dictatorship through the
formation of the Alliance For Democracy (AFORD, dominated
by northerners) and the United Democratic Front (UDF,
dominated by southerners). In 1992-1993 AFORD and UDF
successfully campaigned for the introduction of a multi-
party political system.


7. (U) While the results of the 1993 referendum were a
clear manifestation of the Malawian people's yearning for
change, the voting pattern showed clearly that
regionalism was an important factor in the results.
Majorities in the northern region (88.4%) and southern
region (83.5%) voted for the multi-party system while
65.5% of the central region voted to retain the
autocratic one-party system. Clearly, the north and the
south voted for change because they felt sidelined and
the center voted against change, as they wanted to retain

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power and influence.

8.(SBU) Regional differences in voting patterns were again
reflected in the presidential and parliamentary general
elections in 1994 and 1999. Candidates for AFORD did very
well in the north; those for MCP did well in the center
and those for the UDF swept the southern region. The only
exceptions were the far southern districts of Nsanje and
Chikwawa, where the majority of the voters followed
political heavy weight Gwanda Chakuamba to the MCP.

Reasons for Regionalism
--------------


9. (U) Regionalism remains a factor in Malawian politics
because of a number of reasons. The first important
reason is the absence of ideology. In Malawian politics
no political party operates on the left, right or center.
The ideological vacuum is thus filled by regionalism.


10. (U) Secondly, since Malawi is ethnically very diverse
there is no one dominant tribal group. Because of this
ethnic diversity, it is difficult to base political
mobilization on tribal identity. There is instead the
need to construct a wider unit for mobilization. It is
for this reason that the region, a geographical and
administrative unit that puts together several districts
and tribal groups, has become an important unit for
competition for political and economic resources.


11. (U) Finally, many people in the southern region,
including President Mutharika, are second or third
generation Malawians. Their ancestors migrated into the
country during the colonial period, fleeing vicious
Portuguese rule in Mozambique, or coming to work as wage
laborers and tenants on the settler plantations in the
southern region. These immigrant tribal communities now
constitute more than half of the southern region's
population and probably a quarter or more of the
country's overall population. They suffered an identity
crisis during the colonial and Banda-era periods. Their
historical and cultural traditions were deliberately and
politically subjugated, by the state, to those of the
indigenous groups. With the opening up of the political
system, they have begun to assert their "Malawian
identity" and to flex their numerical power. Choosing
political leaders from their own region is an important
way of ensuring for themselves future political dominance
in the country's most populous region. Thus Muluzi chose
fellow southerner Mutharika as his successor.

Prospects for Change
--------------


12. (U) In the 2004 elections regionalism was still a
factor, however it was not as a decisive as it had been
in previous elections. In 2004 the MCP maintained (and
even increased) its grip on the central region. However,
the lack of intra-party democracy led to both AFORD and
the UDF losing their political dominance over the
northern and southern regions, respectively. Muluzi's
imposition of parliamentary candidates led to many
independents and other non-UDF candidates winning seats
in Parliament that would normally go to the UDF. In
AFORD, poor leadership led to the party winning a mere
five seats, down from the 36 it had won in 1994. It
appears that the party-region link in voter's minds was
not as strong in 2004 as it had been in previous years.
The individual candidate's profile seemed to be the
voter's main concern in making a choice.

Comment: The First National Party?
--------------


13. (SBU) For the first time in recent Malawian history,
it now looks possible for a party, namely Mutharika's new
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),to transcend regional
association. With its sweep of all six seats in the
December 2005 by-election (three in the north and three
in the south),the DPP showed itself to be a serious
player in Malawian politics. While it has successfully
filled the vacum created in the north by the demise of
AFORD, the DPP also showed it could win in the previously
UDF-dominated south. For the DPP to succeed beyond the
next election cycle in 2009, it must maintain its
national appeal, and stay away from association with a
particular region.


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14. (SBU) For their part, the two major opposition
parties must also try and develop a wider support base.
The UDF has clearly lost its grip on the south, while the
MCP is looking increasingly shaky in the central region.
Neither party seems likely to carry parliamentary or
presidential elections merely by campaigning in their
traditional power base. However, as both parties are
older than the DPP, it will be more difficult for them to
lay claim to a wider popularity, as their records clearly
show regional bias.


15. (SBU) Regardless, the recent voter focus away from
the party-region link and towards a candidate's personal
profile is an opportunity for all political parties to go
national by recruiting and fielding attractive candidates
across the country. This should improve the quality of
representation in parliament, as more candidates are
voted for on the basis of their qualifications, instead
of their regional affiliation. The road to overcoming
regionalism in politics is sure to be a long one, however
the political spoils make it an enticing goal for each
poltical party.
GILMOUR